U.S. Indexes saw choppy trade on Monday, with equities ultimately closing flat while oil prices were volatile, settling off highs as uncertainty around US/Iran developments persisted. The cancellation of talks over the weekend kept sentiment fragile, with mixed headlines throughout the session offering little clarity on the path forward. Geopolitical developments remained the key driver. Iran stated its military should have control over the Strait of Hormuz, while also proposing to reopen the Strait if the US lifts its naval blockade. Reports suggested the US has requested negotiations, although the White House stopped short of confirming it is considering Iran’s proposal, noting an official response from President Trump is expected soon. In Equities, sector performance was mixed. Communication Services outperformed, supported by strong Verizon earnings, while Tech saw mixed moves after Microsoft announced it will no longer pay a revenue share to OpenAI but later said Accenture signed a firm-wide Copilot licence. Chip names were pressured after Poet Technologies plunged on cancelled orders, weighing on peers such as Marvell. In FX, cyclical currencies gained as equities pared earlier losses, weighing on the Dollar. Antipodes led the upside, while traditional havens lagged. In commodities, crude prices were bid but off highs amid the geopolitical backdrop, while precious metals were softer. In rates, Treasuries were weaker as oil prices rose, with auctions having limited impact despite stronger demand in the 2-year relative to the 5-year. There was no notable US data, with focus this week turning to a heavy slate of central bank meetings, including the Bank of Japan overnight and the Fed on Wednesday. There was no tier 1 US data or Fed speak, although over the weekend, Senator Tillis said he would support Warsh as Fed Chair following the Department of Justice dropping its probe into Powell. Elsewhere, Oil closed higher by 2.6% while Gold ended Monday’s session with a 0.6% fall.
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For anyone following my Platinum Service it was made 35 points yesterday and is now ahead by 1630 points for April after ending March with a massive gain of 9002 points, having closed February with a strong gain of 5482 points after ending January with a gain of 4757 points, having closed December with a gain of 2599 points, after ending the month of November with a gain of 4542 points, after ending October with a nice gain of 5110 points after closing September with a gain of 3774 points while ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.12% higher at a price of 7173.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 62 points lower for a 0.13% loss at a price of 49,167.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.01% higher at a price of 27,304.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.31% lower.
This Morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.7% lower.
This Morning, the Nikkei closed 1.23% lower at a price of 59,796.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.07% lower.
The Euro closed 0.06% higher at $1.1723.
The British Pound closed 0.08% higher at $1.3537.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.02% closing at $159.40.
Bonds
U.K.’s 10-Year Gilt closed 6 basis points higher at 5.01%.
Germany’s 10-Year Bund Yield closed 4 basis points higher at 3.03%
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 3 basis points higher at 4.34%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 2.60% higher at $96.85 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.58% lower at $4682.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have the ECB Bank Lending Survey at 9.00 am, followed by the U.S. ADP Weekly Employment Change. Next, we have the House Price Index at 2.00 pm while at 3.00 pm we have Consumer Confidence and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index. Finally, we have a Seven -Year Treasury Auction at 6.00 pm and a speech from ECB President Lagarde at 6.30 pm.
Cash S&P 500
Dispersion To The Max. When the S&P 500 Dispersion Index trades above 40, it is entering rare territory—levels previously seen during the COVID meltdown in March 2020 and the Tariff Tantrum in 2025. The DSPX has now pushed beyond its October 2025 highs, underscoring just how extreme conditions have become. The key difference this time is that it does not appear to be driven by fear, which widens the gap between index-level and single-stock volatility. From the looks of it, this appears to be driven by something else—likely greed. What else do you call a market where constituent volatility is rising while index volatility is falling? That is not defensive positioning—that is call buying and risk-taking concentrated in individual names. Unless, of course, there is a real fear that earnings, starting Wednesday, are going to be a disaster. However, given the rise in stocks and the positive net delta values—which suggest call-driven activity—it is hard to argue this is being driven by fear, especially when looking at Meta. If anything, the setup points to positioning rather than protection. You can make the same argument with Alphabet, where implied volatility is rising alongside heavy call volumes. Microsoft shows the same pattern as well. Across the board, the message is consistent: this is positioning, not hedging. Again, it is difficult to frame that as fear. If anything, it reinforces the idea that this is driven by aggressive upside positioning rather than hedging. So again, as I see it, once earnings pass, a lot of this likely gets unwound. Unless these companies all deliver blowout results strong enough to push through their respective call walls, I would expect the flows that have driven the recent move higher to begin unwinding, removing a key source of support for the market. I still believe that we are approaching the Market Top of the Century. Yes, we may hit my 7230/7250 target level first next month before all this rolls over. The Iran-U.S. conflict is a quagmire and will drag the global economy to the downhill, admit it or not. That serious and irreparable set of consequences will show up in summer and probably peak in October leading to a deadly cancer in the stock market. Let me REITERATE this principle once again: the market only crashes when the least amount of people have short positions on board. Given the ugly and ultra-bearish-leaning economic setup, most “rational and sane” investors and traders would have shorted the market. That is what has transpired over the last month, when a large percentage of people did hold a bearish view or shorted the market. They were right—only a bit earlier. Their rational thinking and decision-making turns into their OWN worst enemy, as the Market God has to scare and drive them away. And do it fast. Hence the SUPER SQUEEZE over the last few weeks, with reduced volume. Instead of paying attention to other Technical Indicators, I suggest that you focus on the BULL/BEAR ratio alone, as the market machnism now is no longer based on rationality, but based on supply and demand [before a major crash]. Think about the super hot weather before a major hurricane or the retrace of water before a large tsunami. Once the bear camp drops below 30%, it is about time to put on your seatbelt and helmet, as the upcoming roller-coaster session would be as punishing as the last circuit breaker six years ago during the COVID Crash. I am still short the S&P at an average rate of 7097 with the same 7070 T/P level. I will continue to have no stop on this position. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
I am still flat as the Euro again traded in a narrow range on Monday. Today, I will leave my levels unchanged: The Euro has short-term support below from 1.1580/1.1660 where I will be a small buyer with a 1.1495 ‘Closing Stop’. I will now lower my sell level to 1.1790/1.1860 with a lower 1.1935 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 1.1730. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 1.1730.
Dollar Index
No Change: The Dollar has support below from 97.40/98.20 where I will again be a buyer with a lower 96.85 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 98.80. I still do not want to be short the Dollar at this time.
Russell 2000
No Change: I am still short the Russell at an average rate of 2725 from last week. To reduce risk, I will leave my 2700 T/P level unchanged with the same 2795 ‘Closing Stop’. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
FTSE 100
In contrast to the American Indexes both the FTSE and the Stoxx Euro 600 are trading heavy. I am still flat the FTSE. Today, I will lower my buy level to 10180/10260 while leaving my 10095 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 10330. Despite the higher Gilt Yields I still do not want to be short the FTSE at this time.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow never came close to Monday’s buy range and I am still flat. The Dow continues to underperform both the NDX and S&P making it difficult to be short as the market can always play catchup at any stage. The Dow has short-term support from 48350/48650 where I will continue to be a buyer with the same 48195 tight ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 48940.
Cash NASDAQ 100
I am still short the NDX from Friday at an average rate of 27010 with the same 27305 ‘Closing Stop’. I will leave my 26850 T/P level unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
December BUND
The Bund again traded in a narrow range and I am still flat. The Bund has short-term support below from 124.40/125.20 where I will be a small buyer with a 123.75 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 125.85.
Gold Rolling Contract
I am still flat. The bottom of the Bollinger Band comes in at a price of 4356 this morning. Today, I will continue to be a buyer from 4320/4420 while leaving my 4195 wider ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 4530. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Silver Rolling Contract
Silver is trading lower by over 3% this morning. This move lower saw my 72.95 buy level triggered. Just like Gold above I still expect some further downward pressure on Precious Metals before we see a more sustained rally. I have now exited this long position here at 73.30 and I am now flat. Silver has support below from 68.50/71.50 where I will be a strong buyer with a lower 66.95 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 74.20. I still do not want to be short Silver at this time.
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