Asian stocks were mixed at the start of a big week for central-bank policy. Treasuries edged lower. Japanese and Australian shares saw modest losses, while equities in Hong Kong climbed after the government suspended a controversial extradition bill. S&P 500 Index futures rose after U.S. shares dipped Friday and Chinese shares were flat. Treasury yields ticked higher after upbeat economic data at the end of last week left some doubts about a more dovish position from the Federal Reserve. Investors will be scrutinizing the Fed’s policy decision Wednesday for signals on the chances of rates cuts ahead. Meantime, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross reiterated that the prospect of a major trade deal is unlikely to emerge from a possible meeting between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping at the Group of 20 summit in Osaka this month.
To mark my 1850th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 85 points on Friday and is now ahead by 668 points for June, having made 1722 points in May, 955 points in April, 1027 points in March, 1013 points in February and 1671 points in January. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
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Equities
President Donald Trump, gearing up for the official start of his 2020 campaign, warned that the U.S. would face an epic stock market crash if he’s not re-elected. “If anyone but me takes over,” Trump told his 61 million Twitter followers on Saturday, “there will be a Market Crash the likes of which has not been seen before!” Futures on the S&P 500 Index rose 0.2% at the open in London this morning having closed 0.2% lower on Friday at 2887. Despite the political unrest over the weekend in Hong Kong, the Hang Seng added 0.7% this morning, while the Shanghai Composite was flat.
Currencies
Here is a summary of the main changes in F.X. Markets:
The offshore yuan was at 6.9301 per dollar.
The Japanese Yen closed unchanged at 108.59 per Dollar
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was flat.
The Euro closed 0.1% higher at bought $1.1219.
Bonds
Financial markets are signalling investors see little risk of disruption from upcoming events, despite the potential for major shifts in the course of Federal Reserve policy and U.S.-China trade negotiations. The range of options for this week’s Fed meeting spans a surprise interest-rate cut, a set-up of one down the road or a continued stance of patience, given still-solid economic growth. Late next week, the outcomes of the Group-of-20 summit look binary: either U.S.-China trade talks get back on track, or investors must anticipate further tariff hikes. And the usual run of data must be added to the mix, such as the July 5 Non-Farm Payrolls report. The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced three basis points to 2.11%, while the German Bund closed unchanged at a near record -25 basis points.
Commodities
Gold was steady at $1,341.79 an ounce having traded to an intra-day high of 1356 on Friday. Oil rose, finding support from top producer Saudi Arabia’s confidence that OPEC and its allies would agree to extend output cuts into the second half of the year at a meeting that will probably take place in the first week of July, closing 0.1% higher at $52.57 a barrel.
This morning on the Economic Front we have the German Bundesbank’s Monthly Report at 11.00 am. This is followed by the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index at 1.30 pm. Finally we have the NAHB Housing Market Index at 3.00 pm and the Net TIC Flows at 9.00 pm.
At 6.00 pm we have a speech from ECB President Dragi
June S&P 500
My S&P plan worked well with the market trading lower to my 2883 buy level before rallying 10 Handles. As I wanted to bank some points for Friday’s session I covered this position at my revised 2886 T/P level and I am now flat. As we have the FOMC Meeting on Wednesday I am expecting the S&P to trade sideways/higher over the next 48 hours. Today I will again look to buy the S&P on any dip lower to 2876/2886 with a 2869 stop. I still do not want to be short the S&P at this time.
EUR/USD
Even though I have had the correct view in trying to short the Euro the market has not given me a chance to get short and I am still flat. The Euro is so far holding the key 1.1190/1.1220 support area and today I will now lower my sell level to 1.1270/1.1310 with a 1.1355 stop as we wait to see what Dragi has to say later this evening.
September Dollar Index
Late on Friday the Dollar traded higher to my 97.10 sell level. I am still short and I will now lower my stop on this position to a tight 97.45. I will also raise my T/P level on this trade to 96.85 and if any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
June DAX
My DAX plan worked well on Friday with the market trading lower to my 12060 buy level before rallying to my revised 12090 T/P level and I am now flat. Today I will again look to buy the DAX on any dip lower to 11990/12050 with a 11945 tight stop. I still do not want to be short the DAX at this time.
June FTSE
Despite Cable trading at near its low for the year the FTSE has again underperformed with the market again falling short of my 7430 sell level before closing near the low of the day last Friday. Today I will be a buyer on any further dip lower to 7280/7320 with a 7245 stop. I will also lower my sell level slightly to 7425/7455 with a 7485 stop.
Dow Rolling Contract
I am still flat the Dow as we have seen no meaningful pull back in prices over the past week. It is time to raise my buy level again. I am still looking for the Dow to make new highs above 26950 with a potential target level of 27150/27400. Today my buy level will be from 25870/26030 with a 25780 stop.
June NASDAQ
My NASDAQ plan also worked well on Friday with the market trading lower to my 7455 buy level. Unfortunately as a number of my calls hit on Friday near the same time I covered this long NASDAQ position for a small gain at 7462 and I am now flat. This morning the market is trading at 7500 having hit on overnight high of 7514. Today I will again look to buy the market on any dip lower to 7420/7470 with a 7370 wider stop.
September BUND
Shortly after I posted on Friday the Bund traded higher to my 171.98 sell level before trading lower to my revised 171.80 T/P level and I am now flat. Today I will again look to sell the Bund from 171.95/172.35 with a 172.65 stop.
Gold Rolling Contract
Both Gold and Silver sold off on Friday with Gold having a Downside Key Day Reversal. As Silver hit my buy level first I waited to buy Gold which I did at a price of 1338. I am still long and I will now lower my T/P level on this position to 1343. I will also raise my stop on this position to 1329.
Silver Rolling Contract
Silver traded lower to my 14.95 buy level. I am still long and I will look to add to this position at 14.55 with the same 14.15 stop. I will also lower my T/P level on this trade to 15.05.
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