U.S. stocks finished the week mixed as Treasury Yields jumped to six-week highs and the US Dollar slipped. All three major U.S. Indexes still closed higher for a third consecutive week after being whipsawed by a rotation from growth to value shares by some investors. Apple weighed on the Nasdaq Friday. Equity Indexes in Europe and Asia finished the week in the green thanks to easing trade fears and a new round of Central Bank stimulus. Oil posted its biggest ever intraday jump to more than $71 a barrel after a strike on a Saudi Arabian oil facility removed about 5% of global supplies, an attack the U.S. has blamed on Iran. In an extraordinary start to trading on Monday, London’s Brent Futures leapt almost $12 in the seconds after the open, the most in Dollar terms since they were launched in 1988. Prices have since pulled back about half of that initial surge of almost 20%, but were still heading for the biggest advance in more than three years. This weekend’s drone attacks on Saudi oil facilities mark a major setback to the global geopolitical landscape. Other than helping some oil exporting companies, the overall impact of heightened risk is negative for global equities in the near-term.
To mark my 1900th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 154 points on Friday and is now ahead by 729 points for September, having made 2387 points in August, 1153 points in July, 1346 points in June,1722 points in May, 955 points in April and 1027 points in March. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
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Equities
Sentiment for risk that’s gathered steam in recent weeks is being tested after the weekend’s developments in the Middle East. Trump said the U.S. is “locked and loaded depending on verification” that Iran staged the attack on major Saudi Arabian oil facilities. Several administration officials said Sunday that they had substantial evidence that Iran was behind the attack, not the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen who claimed responsibility. Treasury Yields jumped to six-week highs at the end of last week and global equities are coming off the back of a three-week advance thanks to easing trade fears and a new round of Central Bank stimulus. China Factory, Retail and Investment data all missed estimates Monday, adding to the risk-off mood. Attention now shifts to the Federal Reserve meeting mid-week.
Futures on the S&P 500 Index fell 0.5% as of 7 a.m. in London. The underlying gauge declined 0.1% on Friday.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index declined 1.1%.
The Shanghai Composite Index added 0.1%.
South Korea’s Kospi index rose 0.4%.
Euro Stoxx 50 Futures fell 0.7%.
Currencies
Here is a summary of the main Changes in F.X. Markets:
The Japanese Yen rose 0.2% to 107.87 per dollar.
The Pound posted the biggest weekly gain since May after the Times reported possible progress in Brexit negotiations related to the contentious Irish backstop. Prime Minister Boris Johnson will meet EU President Jean-Claude Juncker next week. Cable closed 1% higher at $1.2480.
The Euro closed 0.2% higher at $1.1075, where it is opening this morning.
The offshore Yuan fell 0.2% to 7.0628 per dollar.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was flat.
Bonds
Futures on 10-year Treasuries rose about 0.3%. The yield on 10-year notes climbed 13 basis points to 1.90% on Friday, reaching the highest in more than six weeks.
Germany’s 10-year yields gained seven basis points to -0.45%, the highest in more than six weeks , on the largest advance in more than a week.
Commodities
Brent soared 11% and West Texas Intermediate added about 9%, paring some earlier gains. News of the devastating attack on the world’s largest crude exporter also sent currencies of commodity-linked nations higher, including the Norwegian krone and the Canadian dollar. U.S. President Donald Trump said he has authorized the release of supplies from the Country’s emergency fuel storage, known as the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, if that is needed.
West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 10% to $60.09 a barrel.
Gold added 1% to $1,503.48 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have no data of note from either the U.K. or the Euro-Zone. The only U.S. data is the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index while be released at 1.30 pm
September S&P 500
The S&P which just missed my 3028 sell level with a 3025.75 high print before trading sideways to lower for the rest of the session. However the drone attacks on the oilfields in Saudi Arabia after the markets closed on Friday saw the S&P open at the bottom of my buy range at 2986 after the Futures Market re-opened last night. I emailed my platinum Members to exit any long position at 2993 and I am now flat. This morning the S&P is trading at the same price. Despite the spike in oil prices and the increase in Global tensions, this week sees the Expiration of the September Contract on Friday and the FOMC Meeting on Wednesday. This combination is normally bullish and is one reason why I will not sell the S&P. This view will hold as long as we do not close below 2950. Today I will be a small buyer from 2868/2878 with a 2859 stop.
EUR/USD
No Change as I am still a buyer on any dip lower to 1.1000/1.1040 with the same 1.0965 stop.
December Dollar Index
I am still flat the Dollar and I will continue to be a seller from 98.25/98.65 with the same 98.95 stop.
September DAX
My DAX plan worked well with the market trading higher to my 12490 sell level shortly before lunch on Friday before selling off to my 12445 T/P level and I am now flat. This morning the DAX is trading lower at 12370 and I will be a small buyer on any further sell-off to 12200/12280 with a 12145 tight stop. Ahead of the FOMC on Wednesday I do not want to be short the DAX at this time.
September FTSE
The FTSE also missed my sell level before having a small sell-off. This is the first time in many months the market has not fallen aggressively despite the 1% gain in Sterling. Today I will raise my buy level to 7230/7270 with a 7195 stop.
Dow Rolling Contract
It took a while but finally on the re-open of the U.S Markets last night the Dow traded lower to my 27030 buy level before rallying to my 27095 revised T/P level and I am now flat. Just like the S&P above I would expect the Dow to hold in this week and this view will hold as long as we do not break the key 26500 support level. Today I will be a buyer on any further dip lower to 26750/26900 with a 26680 stop. If I am taken long and subsequently stopped out of this position I will be a more aggressive buyer from 26440/26590 with a 26380 stop.
September NASDAQ
Overnight the NASDAQ traded the whole of my buy range for a now average long position at 7825. I will now lower my T/P level on this position to 7855 while raising my stop slightly to 7779. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
December BUND
Shortly after I posted on Friday I was stopped out of my latest 173.25 long position at 172.95. Subsequently I emailed my Platinum Members to re-buy the Bund which I did at 172.50 before exiting this position on the 7.00 am open this morning at 172.71 and I am now flat. Last week was the worst week for the Bund in terms of falling prices in many months. As a result the Bund is extremely oversold. The Bund has good support from 171.60/172.10 and I will be a buyer in this area with a 171.25 stop.
Gold Rolling Contract
Frustratingly Gold just missed my 1485 buy level with a 1486 low print late Friday before opening at 1508 last night. I am not going to chase the price of Gold higher and I will only raise my buy level to 1478/1488 with a 1469 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
Thankfully after I posted on Friday Silver rallied to my 18.25 T/P level on my 18.10 long position. Subsequently Silver got hit hard in New York by trading to a low of 17.47. This move lower enabled my to re-buy the market at 17.80 as emailed to my Platinum Members before covering this position earlier this morning at 17.93 and I am now flat. Today I will again look to buy Silver on any dip to 17.15/17.55 with a 16.80 stop.
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