U.S. Equity Markets retreated from record highs, while Treasuries rose after the latest Jobs Report delivered mixed signals on the strength of the economy. The US Dollar declined versus major currencies. The S&P 500 dropped for the first time in three days after hiring data fell short of estimates and wage growth was the weakest in more than a year. The benchmark still notched a weekly advance as the situation in the Middle East held a tenuous calm. Boeing Corp. slumped, helping to pull down the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Treasuries pushed higher as the wage figures erased any inflation worries. Futures traders maintained the amount of easing they expect from the Federal Reserve. The jobs data ultimately did little to alter investor views on the strength of the economy or the Fed’s next step. With stocks near all-time highs, markets continue to look past the flare-up in tensions with Iran and focus on the potential for a pickup in global economic growth. Elsewhere, European shares rose, while bonds in the region advanced. Gold gained, while West Texas oil dropped below $60 a barrel. Inside Iran, the admission by authorities that they accidentally shot down a passenger jet packed with Iranian students last week has shattered a brief moment of unity, putting its leadership on the back foot again after only recently quelling nationwide protests. The fact that Iran appears to have spent days giving false justifications for the crash, which killed all 176 people on board, added to the anger, sparking protests and a crackdown from the government. Iran’s admission came only after the U.S., U.K., Canada and Australia said they had intelligence indicating that the plane was struck by an Iranian missile, which Iran at first vehemently denied.
To mark my 1975th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 65 points on Friday and is now ahead by 962 points for January, having made 818 points in December, 780 points in November, 1649 points in October, 1620 points in September, 2387 points in August, 1153 points in July, 1346 points in June,1722 points in May, 955 points in April and 1027 points in March. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
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Equities
The S&P 500 Index fell 0.3% to close at 3265.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.5%, closing at 28,823.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index fell 0.1%.
Germany’s DAX Index gained 0.3%.
Currencies
Here is a summary of the main Changes in F.X. Markets:
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.1%.
The British Pound dropped 0.1% at $1.3059.
The Euro rose 0.1% at $1.1112.
The Japanese Yen was little changed at 109.50 per dollar.
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries fell three basis points to 1.82%.
Britain’s 10-year yield fell five basis points to 0.773%.
Germany’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to -0.198%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude dropped 0.9% to $59.05 a barrel.
Gold rose rose 0.4% at $1,560.30 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have German Wholesale Prices at 7.00 am. This is followed at 9.30 am by UK Industrial/Manufacturing Production, Trade Balance, Index of Services and GDP. Surprisingly we have no data of note due from the U.S. this afternoon.
March S&P 500
The S&P just missed my 3290 sell level with a 3287 high print before having a small sell-off into the close and I am still flat. Last Thursday the Daily Sentiment Index finally closed with a reading of 90% bulls. This indicator has taken time to generate a sell signal while the McClellan Oscillator closed in negative territory with a -16 print. As I mentioned on Friday the S&P has short-term support from 3240/3252 and I will still be a buyer in this area with a 3233 stop. I will now lower my sell level to 3286/3298 with a lower 3307 stop. Again if I am taken short and subsequently stopped out of this position I will be a more aggressive seller at my target 3315/3340 area with a 3355 stop.
EUR/USD
The Euro finally rallied to my 1.1125 T/P level on last week’s 1.1110 long position and I am now flat. The Euro has strong support from 1.1050/1.1090 and I will be buyer on any dip to this area with a 1.1015 stop.
March Dollar Index
No Change as I am still a seller from 97.30/97.70 with the same 98.05 stop.
March DAX
I am still flat the DAX and today I will lower my sell level to 13590/13650 with a 13695 stop. Given how overbought the DAX is trading I still do not want to be long the market at this time.
March FTSE
The FTSE continues to trade heavy and this comes against a background of a weaker Pound. The FTSE is a good signal for market leadership and has been the first market to top in the past. The weakness over the past week needs to watched carefully. Today I will lower my sell level to 7580/7620 with a 7665 stop.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow fell shy of my 29090 sell level with a high of 29019 as the market ended Friday with a Downside Key Day Reversal. Normally this is a worry for the bulls but as we have seen over the past few months anytime the market looks like it is going to rollover, buyers return. The Dow’s low on October 3 was 25300 so we have had nearly 3000 point rally in three months. Today I will lower my sell level to 29030/29160 with a lower 29265 stop. The Dow has initial support from 28500/28650 and I will be a buyer in this area with a 28395 tight stop.
March NASDAQ
Shortly before the NFP was released the NASDAQ traded higher to my 9045 sell level before hitting my revised 9010 T/P level. Subsequently the market rallied to my second sell level at 9035 as emailed earlier to my Platinum Members and I covered this position at 9020. I am now flat and today I will again look to sell the market from 9035/9080 with a 9130 stop. I still do not want to be long the NASDAQ at this time.
March BUND
No Change as I am still long at 171.25 with the same 171.50 T/P level. I will now raise my stop on this position to 170.75. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold rallied small on Friday and I am still flat. Today I will raise my buy level to 1532/1542 with a higher 1525 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
I am still flat Silver and today I will also raise my buy level to 17.40/17.80 with a higher 17.05 stop.
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