US Stock Indices climbed to round off a strong First Quarter while Treasuries fell amid hopes for a Trade Deal between the World’s tow largest economies. The S&P 500 Index posted its best Quarter since 2009, and Lyft Incorporation surged in its debut after investors pushed to get a piece of the first big U.S. technology listing this year. Treasury 10-year yields increased following a plunge earlier last week that triggered an economic slowdown. The Pound retreated as Britain edged closer to a general election after Parliament rejected Prime Minister May’s Brexit deal for a third time.
To mark my 1800th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoblecom for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it was flat on Friday to close March with a gain of 1027 points, having made 1013 points in February, 1671 points in January, 2803 points in December, 1541 points in November and 2094 points in October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given. This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Currencies
Apart from Cable closing 0.5% lower, currency markets were quiet with the Euro closing little changed at 1.1218 having hit an intra-day low of 1.1209. This morning the Euro is opening slightly higher at 1.1235 as the market continues to hold the key 1.1200 support level. The Bloomberg Spot Dollar Index closed 0.1% higher while USD/JPY fell 0.2% to close at 110.82.
Equities
After a late surge the Dow closed 211 points higher for a 0.82% gain at 25928. For the month of March the Index was marginally higher with a 0.05% gain as the Index closed 11.15% higher for the Quarter. The S&P ended the month with a gain of 1.79% at 2834, to complete a Quarterly gain of 13.07% for its best Quarter since 2009. Finally the NASDAQ closed 60 points higher on Friday for a Quarterly gain of a very impressive 16.49%. This morning all three US Equity Futures markets are opening 0.65%/0.85% higher on trade hopes with China.
Bonds
The Yield on US 10 Year Treasuries rose 2. Basis points on Friday to finish the first Quarter at 2.40% as the market now looks for two rate cuts this year. Meanwhile in Europe the German Bund closed one basis point higher at -0.7%.
Commodities
Gold is opening little changed from where I marked prices on Friday Morning while in Oil WTI rose 1.4% to close the Quarter at $60.14 a barrel.
This morning on the Economic Front we already had the release of Final German Manufacturing PMI which came in at 44.1 versus 44.7 expected. At 9.30 am we have UK Manufacturing PMI and this is followed at 10.00 am by Euro-Zone CPI. Next we have US Retail Sales at 1.30 pm and US Manufacturing PMI at 2.45 pm. Finally at 3.00 pm we have ISM Manufacturing and Construction Spending.
June S&P 500
On the re-open of the US Futures Markets last night the S&P gaped higher, above my sell range and then hitting my stop. I did not take the trade myself as it happened so late and I am still flat. With European clocks changing over the weekend we are back to the normal trading hours in London time for the US Markets. Although the pace of the S&P rally slowed in March the market still recorded its best Quarter since 2009 as yet again the ‘’buy the dip’’ won the battle. The S&P has strong resistance from 2868/2878 and today I will be a small seller on any rally to this area with a 2885 tight stop. With the June Contract closing at 2839 on Friday the market is now trading 20 Handles away from this close for a huge ‘’Open Gap’’. As a result I will now raise my buy level to 2830/2840 with a 2822 stop.
EUR/USD
I am still flat the Euro and today I will now raise my buy level slightly to 1.1170/1.1205 with a higher 1.1135 stop. Given how close we are to long-term support I still do not want to be short the Euro at this time.
June Dollar Index
Yet again the Dollar just missed my 97.20 sell level before having a small sell-off and I am still flat. Today I will lower my sell level slightly to 97.10/97.50 with the same 97.95 stop.
June DAX
This morning the DAX is opened the second Quarter strong as the market looks to break the key 11700/11800 resistance area. I am still flat and today I will raise my buy level to 11490/11550 with a 11440 stop.
June FTSE
The FTSE continues to be a buy on dips helped by the weak Pound. I am still flat and today I will now raise my buy level to 7115/7165 with a 7075 stop.
Dow Rolling Contract
Yet again the Dow missed my buy level on Friday as the market rallied late to close at 25934 and is opening 150 points higher this morning, helped by better than expected Chinese PMI data overnight. The Dow is right in the middle of the key 26000/26200 resistance area that has held the market from rallying further for all of March. Today I will move my buy level higher to 25750/25900 with a 25630 wider stop. Even though I would expect the Dow to have difficulty in breaking the key 26200 resistance area I am reluctant to short the Dow given how much the market has underperformed the other main US Indices over the past six weeks.
June NASDAQ
This morning the NASDAQ is trading at a price of 7478 which is right at the top of recent resistance. I have gone short in small size here with a tight 7525 stop. I will have a T/P level on this position at 7448 and if any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
June BUND
I am still flat the Bund with the market opening lower this morning on the back of the strong start to the equity markets. Today I will lower my sell level to 166.50/166.90 with a 167.35 stop.
Gold Rolling Contract
Trading can be frustrating. On Friday morning I was stopped out of my 1295 long Gold position near the low of the day at 1287 before the market rallied above 1300 after I posted before selling off into the close and I am still flat. I still do not trust this market and today I will leave my 1269/1277 buy level unchanged with the same 1261 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
I am still long Silver at a price of 15.20 with the same 15.30 T/P level and 14.55 stop. I will continue to add to this position on any further dip lower to 14.82 and if this price is hit I will then lower my T/P level to 15.07. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Recent Comments