U.S. Equity Markets advanced as investors speculated the Trump administration won’t move forward with a tariff hike on Chinese goods scheduled for Dec. 15. US Treasuries and the Dollar fell. The S&P 500 Index continued to rebound from a sell-off sparked by a spike in trade tensions that many investors now view as negotiating bluster. Treasury yields climbed after data showed Jobless Claims slumped to a seven-month low, signalling resilience in the labour market ahead of today’s Jobs Report. Oil closed flat in a very volatile session as OPEC failed to impress traders with what appeared to be a cosmetic revision to output quotas. Investors watched for signs the world’s two largest economies will reach a truce in a dispute that has led to the biggest volley of tariffs since the 1930s. Equities rebounded after President Donald Trump’s remarks that negotiations were “moving along well.” Gains were briefly capped by a news report that the U.S. and China remained at odds over the value of farm purchases.
To mark my 1950th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 38 points yesterday and is now ahead by 168 points for December, having made 780 points in November, 1649 points in October, 1620 points in September, 2387 points in August, 1153 points in July, 1346 points in June,1722 points in May, 955 points in April and 1027 points in March. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
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Equities
We are expecting trade to dominate the narrative for the next week and a half as we approach that December 15 deadline. Traders also awaited Friday’s U.S. jobs report, which may signal that both the labour market and consumers remain buoyant enough to sustain the expansion. That would validate Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s view that Interest Rates can stay on hold following three cuts. But it could also reduce the urgency for a deal with China, given that escalating levies have so far failed to significantly dent employment.
The S&P 500 rose 0.2% to close at 3,118.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 28 points to close at 27,677.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index decreased 0.1%.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced 0.7%.
Currencies
Here is a summary of the main Changes in F.X Markets:
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2%.
The Euro increased 0.2% to $1.1101.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.1% to 108.76 per dollar.
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries climbed two basis points to 1.79%.
Germany’s 10-year yield rose two basis points to -0.29%.
Britain’s 10-year yield increased three basis points to 0.773%.
Commodities
oil prices sputtered as OPEC reached an agreement that adjusts its official production targets, but removes few barrels from a market that’s forecast to return to surplus early next year.
The Bloomberg Commodity Index gained 0.3%.
West Texas Intermediate crude was unchanged at $58.43 a barrel.
Gold rose 0.2% to $1,483.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we already had the release of German Industrial Production which came in very weak with a print of -1.7% versus +0.1% expected. At 8.30 am we have the UK Halifax House Price Index. Next we have the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls, Average Earnings and the Unemployment Rate. U.S. Labour Department figures are expected to show that 184,000 workers were added to nonfarm payrolls last month — one of the highest estimates this year ahead of a jobs report. Finally, at 3.00 pm we have the University of Michigan Consumer Credit and Wholesale Inventories.
December S&P 500
As expected any sell-off in the S&P yesterday would be met by buying ahead of today’s NFP data. The S&P made a low of 3102 before rallying to my 3126 sell level earlier this morning. Subsequently I emailed my Platinum Members to exit any short position at 3124 as I want to be flat ahead of the 1.30 pm release. Internally since Tuesday’s 3070 low the market has improved with the McClellan Oscillator improving to close with a print of -40. It is extremely difficult to stay short the U.S Indices as Trump will inevitably come out with a positive headline on Trade. We are also approaching the Santa Claus rally which usually starts in the next two weeks. The S&P has resistance from 3137/3152 and I will be a seller on any rally to this area with a tight 3161 stop which is just above last Monday’s 3158 all-time high. I will also raise my buy level to 3095/3105 with a 3088 stop.
EUR/USD
I am still flat the Euro as the market continue to trade around the key 1.1100 resistance area. Ahead of this afternoon’s NFP data I will leave my 1.1000/1.1040 buy level unchanged with the same 1.0965 stop.
December Dollar Index
No Change as I am still a seller on any rally higher to 97.80/98.20 with the same 98.55 stop.
December DAX
Unfortunately the DAX just missed my 13220 sell level with a 13185 high print before falling over 120 points into the close. Today’s awful Industrial Production data again emphasises how weak the German Economy is at this time and there is no doubt that we will see another Interest Rate cut from the ECB over the coming weeks. Despite the DAX trading weak this morning I am reluctant to chase this market lower and I will only lower my sell level to 13170/13230 with a tight 13285 stop.
December FTSE
Late yesterday the FTSE traded lower to my 7130 buy level before rallying to my revised 7148 T/P level and I am now flat. This morning the FTSE is still trading below the bottom of its Daily Bollinger Band, while interestingly the Williams Index has given a small buy signal. I will now look to buy the market from 7095/7135 with a 7060 stop.
Dow Rolling Contract
Frustratingly the Dow just missed my 27530 buy level with a 27555 low print before the market turned around and rallied 180 points. I am still flat and today I will raise my buy level to 27450/27570 with the same wider 27330 stop. Ahead of the weekend I will also raise my sell level slightly to 27870/28030 with a higher 28105 stop.
December NASDAQ
I am still flat the NASDAQ and today I will raise my sell level slightly to 8380/8430 with an 8470 higher stop.
December BUND
The Bund traded lower to my second buy level at 170.10 for a now average 170.38 long position. I will leave my T/P level unchanged at 170.50 with the same 169.85 stop. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members. I will also roll to the March Contract on Monday.
Gold Rolling Contract
No Change as I am still a buyer on any dip lower to 1455/1463 with a 1448 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
I am still long Silver at 17.00. I will now raise my stop on this position to 16.65 while at the same time lower my T.P level to 17.15.
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