U.S. Equity Markets rallied, boosted by energy shares as oil surged after President Donald Trump said Russia and Saudi Arabia would cut production. Treasuries fell and the US Dollar rose. The S&P 500 advanced for the first time in three days, with Chevron Corp and Exxon Mobil Corp. among the top gainers. Shares rebounded after falling 6% over the past two days. Consumer discretionary stocks weighed on the benchmark after Jobless Claims doubled from last week to 6.6 million. West Texas Crude gained 22% after Trump said he expects the two countries to cut output following a conversation with Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman on Thursday. But oil came off its highs after officials from both sides watered down expectations. The commodity is still down around 60% for the year. After enduring their worst Quarter since 2008, stocks are struggling for traction as companies move to slash dividends and more U.S. States enact severe restrictions on movement to curb the Covid-19 pandemic. Initial Jobless Claims Thursday that showed record high numbers emphasised the uncertainties surrounding the economic toll. However, rebounding oil prices could help damp the impact by buoying a beaten up sector of the economy.
To mark my 2050th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 678 points yesterday and is now ahead by 1358 points for April, having made an incredible 9264 points in March, 2223 points in February, 2142 points in January, 818 points in December, 780 points in November, 1649 points in October, 1620 points in September and 2387 points in August Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
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Equities
The Jobless Claims were again horrific coming in at an unthinkable record of 6.65 million, an increase of 3,367,000 from the previous week’s record level.
The S&P 500 Index rose 2.3%, closing at a price of 2526.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 2.25% higher at 21,413.
The Nasdaq Composite Index rose 1.7%.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index gained 0.4%.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.6%.
Currencies
Here is a summary of the main Changes in F.X. Markets:
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index climbed 0.5%.
The Euro declined 1% to $1.0852.
The British Pound rose 0.2% at $1.2399.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.7% to 107.92 per dollar.
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries increased three basis point to 0.61%.
Germany’s 10-year yield rose three basis points to -0.43%.
Britain’s 10-year yield climbed two basis point to 0.33%.
Commodities
Gold rose 3.1% to $1,640.80 an ounce.
West Texas Intermediate crude increased 22% to $24.72 a barrel.
This morning on the Economic Front we have German, Euro-Zone and UK Markit Composite/Services PMI at 8.55 am, 9.30 am and 10.00 am respectively. Also at 10.00 am we have Euro-Zone Retail Sales. This is followed at 1.30 pm by U.S Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate and Average Earnings. The consensus for NFP is fall of 100K versus last month’s 273K rise. I would expect the fall to be much bigger. Finally, at 3.00 pm we have ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI.
June S&P 500
Just like last week when the S&P sold off aggressively on the Jobless Claims release the market reversed to close almost 100 Handles higher than the 2425 low print. I Keep emphasising the importance of my updated emails. After 1.30 pm I emailed my Platinum Members expecting a test of Wednesday’s 2435 low and I lowered my S&P buy level to 2430 before the market rallied to my 2450 T/P level. Incredibly the S&P kept rallying to my 2515 sell level before selling off to my 2500 T/P level and I am now flat. Markets will be nervous ahead of the NFP release at 1.30 pm where it is any ones guess as to how much they fell given the awful Weekly Jobless Claims over the past two Thursdays. It is now clear that the 2410/2440 area is critical support and a break and close below here is bearish for a possible test of the 2200 area again. On top of this very few traders will want to have an exposure to equities over the weekend. Today I will be a buyer in this support area with a 2389 wider stop. We have resistance from 2518/2542 where I will be a small seller with a 2558 tight stop.
EUR/USD
My Euro plan did not work well. After I bought the market at 1.0895 I was stopped out of this position at 1.0825 and I am now flat. Long-Term charts are pointing to a test of 1.0540/1.0620 and a close below here opens up the possibility of a move to parity. Today I will be a buyer in this support area with a 1.0480 stop. The Euro has resistance from 1.0910/1.0970 where I will be a seller with a 1.1025 stop.
June Dollar Index
The Dollar is strong, closing over key resistance at 100.50 and I am still flat as thankfully we had no sell level yesterday. Today I will move my buy level higher to 99.50/100.10 with a 98.95 stop.
June DAX
After the DAX traded lower to my 9430 buy level I covered this position at my revised 9450 T/P level and I am still flat. Subsequently the DAX traded to a low of 9350 before rallying 300 points. This morning we are opening at 9500 and I will again look to buy the market on any dip lower to 9250/9350 with a 9175 stop.
June FTSE
No Change as I am still a buyer on any dip lower to 5260/5340 with a lower 5195 stop.
Dow Rolling Contract
After the Dow traded lower to my 20740 buy level I covered this position too early at 20900. Incredibly, the Dow then rallied to my 21450 sell level before selling off to my 21320 T/P level and I am now flat. The main clue to yesterday’s rally (apart from oil) was the VIX. Even when the US Indices were near their lows the VIX was flat. Eventually the VIX got hit hard and closed 10.70% lower at a still very high 50.91. The Dow has strong resistance from 21550/21800 where I will be a small seller with a 21950 stop. The Dow continues to find support from 20500/20750 where I will be a buyer with the same 20345 stop. Remember a break and close below 20500 is bearish for a test of the March Lows.
June NASDAQ
Just after the Futures Market re-opened last night the NASDAQ hit my initial 7640 sell level. As I wanted to be flat overnight I covered this position at 7622 which was the wrong thing to do as the market is trading lower at 7540 this morning. Today I will again look to go short from 7660/7740 with a 7805 stop. I still do not want to be long the NASDAQ at this time.
June BUND
The BUND traded in a narrow range over the past 24 hours and I am still flat. Ahead of the NFP I am going to leave my 172.95/173.55 sell range unchanged with the same 173.95 stop.
Gold Rolling Contract
Despite my concerns about a sustainable rally in Gold, the market rallied over 3% yesterday. Thankfully we are staying on the sidelines as everyone I talk to and read are long Gold which makes me nervous given the extreme bullishness towards this precious metal.
Silver Rolling Contract
I am still flat and I will now raise my buy level to 13.75/14.15 with a higher 13.45 stop.
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