Theresa May is making a desperate push to get her Brexit deal approved in Parliament to avoid a huge delay to Britain’s divorce from the EU, even though she’s facing what seem to be impossible odds. Members of Parliament, who’ve twice rejected her deal, will be asked to back the Withdrawal Agreement in a vote this afternoon at about 2:30 p.m. London time. But the prime minister has so far failed to win over enough of her allies to support the deal. It’s two years to the day since May formally triggered the U.K.’s divorce proceedings, and 11 p.m. tonight was to have been the moment Britain left the EU. Instead, the country’s politicians remain stuck, unable to agree to the terms of the separation that May negotiated with the bloc, and Brexit has been postponed.
Nonetheless, Friday 11 p.m. remains critically significant: That’s when the EU’s offer of a divorce agreement and an orderly exit by May 22 will expire. If Parliament does not pass the deal by then, the country will have to decide whether to leave with no deal on April 12 — severely hitting the economy — or to delay Brexit potentially for many months or even years.
To mark my 1800th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoblecom for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it lost 65 points yesterday and is now ahead by 1027 points for March, having made 1013 points in February, 1671 points in January, 2803 points in December, 1541 points in November and 2094 points in October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
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Currencies
To get around that, May’s motion for Friday removes the section of the package that focuses on future trade and security relationship, known as the Political Declaration. That would at least meet the requirements of the EU, while giving Parliament space to work out a way forward, Leader of the Commons Andrea Leadsom said.
While Bercow allowed the government’s tactic, it angered some members of Parliament who accused May of “playing games” by trying to separate the Withdrawal Agreement and future partnership section in order to get her deal through.
“This is an extraordinary and unprecedented reverse-ferret of the commitments that have been given by Ministers to this place: that we should have our say on both items together,” said Labour MP Mary Creagh.
Sterling was hit hard yesterday falling over 1% with Cable closing 200 points lower at 1.3050 and EUR/GBP back with an 86 Handle.
Meanwhile the EUR/USD made fresh month low at 1.1213 before having a small bounce into the New York close and is opening unchanged at 1.1234 this morning.
Equities
US Indices again had an up and down session with the market having opened higher fell on the 2.2% weaker than expected print of US Q4 GDP. However a late surge saw the Dow , S&P and NASDAQ all close 0.35% higher as we approach the last trading session for March. Meanwhile European Indices ended the day mixed as we wait for the latest UK Vote on Brexit this afternoon.
Bonds
Bond Yields we quiet with 10 Year Treasuries and German Bunds both rising 2 basis points yesterday.
Commodities
WTII crude oil moved lower on the back of comments from President Trump that OPEC should increase the flow of crude. However, the price rebounded off the low at $58.53 and is trading near the day’s high at $59.40. this morning. Traders were not influenced by the President’s remarks (at least for long)
Gold got creamed yesterday on the back of a higher dollar and a run back below the natural $1300 level. It is trading at $1286 this morning having reached a high of $1315.06 shortly after I posted yesterday morning.
Meanwhile Palladium is heading for its biggest weekly decline in over three years as investors focus turned to demand amid concerns over slowing global growth, with the slump following repeated warnings that the Metal’s recent surge to recent highs had propelled it into bubble territory. Palladium which is used primarily in auto catalysts to curb emissions has sank 12% so far this week after hitting an all-time high on March 21. This massive rally which saw prices double since August, spurred predictions that a reversal was inevitable.
This morning on the Economic Front we already had the release of German Retail sales which came in at +0.9% versus the -1.0% expected. At 8.55 am we have German Unemployment and this is followed at 9.30 am by UK GDP, Consumer Credit, Mortgage Approvals and M4 Money Supply. At 12.30 pm we have US Personal Income/Consumption and Canadian GDP. Next we have the Michigan Consumer Sentiment and New Home Sales at 1.45 pm and 2.00 pm respectively. Finally at 2.30 pm we have the UK Parliamentary Vote on Brexit.
Speaking wise the Fed’s Williams, Kaplan and Quarles are all speaking this afternoon, at 1.25 pm, 2.30 pm and 4.05 pm respectively.
June S&P 500
Unfortunately the S&P just missed my 2788 buy level with a 2794 low print before rallying to currently trade at 2827 this morning and I am still flat. Despite what the bears tell you as long the S&P can hold its 50 Day and 200 Day Moving Averages at 2756 and 2771 respectively then the market will continue to be a buy on dips. Today I will now raise my buy level to 2798/2808 with a 2789 stop. Given the fact that today is month-end my only interest in selling the market is on a further rally higher to 2842/2852 with a 2859 tight stop.
EUR/USD
The Euro traded lower to my 1.1220 before having a small rally to my revised 1.1235 T/P level and I am now flat. The Euro is severely oversold and due a bounce. However if we close below key support at 1.1175 then we could see a further acceleration to the downside, With the Brexit vote at 2.30 pm we could well see heightened volatility. Today I will again look to buy the market from 1.1150/1.1190 with a 1.1105 stop. I still do not want to be short the Euro at this time.
June Dollar Index
The Dollar has rallied all-week and I am still flat. The Dollar is now overbought with resistance coming in from 97.10/97.50 where I will be a small seller with a 97.95 wider stop.
June DAX
Thankfully we have had no sell levels in the DAX all-month as despite the woes in the US Indices the DAX has outperformed. I am still flat and today I will now raise my buy level to 11360/11430 with a 11305 stop.
June FTSE
The FTSE also missed my buy level before rallying on the 1% fall in Sterling and I am still flat. Today I will raise my buy level to 7070/7115 with a 7030 stop. Ahead of the key Parliamentary Vote I still do not want to be short the market at this time.
Dow Rolling Contract
I am still flat the Dow with the market not coming close to my 25400 buy level yesterday. This morning the Dow has rallied further trading at a price of 25780 which is just below the key 26000/26200 resistance area which has held the market for all of this month so far. Today I will raise my buy level to 25480/25630 with a 25395 stop. If I am taken long and subsequently stopped out of this position I will be a more aggressive buyer on any further dip lower to 25150/25330 with a 25045 wider stop.
June NASDAQ
Since the NASDAQ peaked last Thursday following a 2.50% rally the market has traded heavy over the past five trading sessions. I am still flat as frustratingly the market just missed my 7255 buy level with a 7288 low print before rallying to trade at 7380 this morning. The NASDAQ has strong resistance from 7430/7480 and today I will be a small seller in this area with a 7525 stop. Today I will move my buy level higher to 7240/7300 with a 7195 stop.
June BUND
So many of my calls juts missed their target level yesterday including the Bund which missed my 166.80 sell level by 15 points before spending the rest of yesterday on the defensive which is no surprise given its insanely negative yield of 8 bps. Today I will lower my sell level slightly to 166.70/167.10 with a 167.45 stop.
Gold Rolling Contract
My fears about chasing the price of Gold higher certainly came through yesterday with the market falling 1% on heavy volume. This move lower saw Gold hit my 1295 buy level before stopping me out of this position overnight at 1287 and I am now flat. Gold has strong support from 1268/1276 which must hold and today I will be a buyer on any dip to this area with a 1261 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1282.
Silver Rolling Contract
Silver traded lower to my 15.20 buy level. I am still long and today I will add to this position on any further move lower to 14.82 with a 14.55 stop. I will leave my 15.30 T/P level unchanged and if my second buy level at 14.82 is filled first, I will then lower my T/P level to 15.07. If any of the above scenarios play out I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
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