U.S. Equities eked out a small advance, dodging the losses that took hold in Europe and Asia, as investors evaluated the risk that a deadly respiratory virus spreading from China could curb global growth. Treasuries climbed and oil dropped. Gains for big tech companies overshadowed losses for makers of consumer goods, providing just enough lift to send the Nasdaq Composite Index to a fresh record high. Other markets showed greater concern about the potential fallout, with oil sinking to its lowest level since November on speculation the virus could dent demand. Government bonds and the Japanese Yen rallied as investors sought out havens. Earlier, China’s Shanghai Composite Index plunged 2.8% on the last trading day before the Lunar New Year holiday, the biggest drop in eight months, as traders considered the virus’s potential impact on travel and shopping. While corporate earnings have beaten analysts’ estimates this season amid signals that global growth is picking up, investors are cautious with stocks trading at lofty valuations. Fewer than 20 deaths have been tallied from the Chinese virus, and the World Health Organization opted against calling the outbreak a public health emergency of international concern. But traders are hesitant to take on risk on the chance the outbreak could develop into something like the much more devastating SARS respiratory illness that emerged in China 17 years ago. Elsewhere, Emerging-Market stocks fell to a two-week low. Mining companies led the Stoxx Europe 600 Index lower. The Euro weakened after policy makers held interest rates steady and European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said officials will look into the potential side effects of negative interest rates.
To mark my 1975th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 40 points yesterday and is now ahead by 1521 points for January, having made 818 points in December, 780 points in November, 1649 points in October, 1620 points in September, 2387 points in August, 1153 points in July, 1346 points in June,1722 points in May, 955 points in April and 1027 points in March. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
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Equities
The S&P 500 Index rose 0.1% to close at 3326.
The Nasdaq Composite added 0.2%, closing at a new all-time high.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index fell 0.7%.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dipped 0.8%.
Currencies
Here is a summary of the main Changes in F.X. Markets:
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.1%.
The Euro fell 0.3% to $1.1055.
The British Pound fell 0.2% to $1.3121.
The Japanese Yen gained 0.3% to 109.49 per dollar.
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries dipped four basis points to 1.73%.
Germany’s 10-year yield fell five basis points to -0.31%.
Britain’s 10-year yield decreased five basis points to 0.59%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude decreased 2% to $55.59 a barrel.
Gold rose 0.3% to $1,562.72 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have German, Euro-Zone and UK Manufacturing/Services PMI at 8.30 am, 9.00 am and 9.30 am respectively. This is followed at 10.30 am by a speech from ECB President Lagarde. Finally, at 2.45 pm we have the U.S. Manufacturing PMI.
March S&P 500
Frustratingly, the S&P just missed my 3298 buy level with a 3301 low print before rallying to close on the highs of the day at 3326. Despite a negative MO and sentiment at extreme bullish levels, traders are happy to buy the dip. The S&P needs to break and close below 3280 before we may see an acceleration to the downside. Today I will raise my buy level to 3300/3310 with a higher 3291 stop. I will also raise my sell level to 3340/3352 with a higher 3361 stop.
EUR/USD
The Euro just missed my 1.1110 T/P level with are rebound high of 1.1108 before the market sold off after the Lagarde Press Conference. This move lower saw me stopped out of my 1.1100 long position at 1.1055 and I am now flat. Today I will again look to buy the Euro from 1.0970/1.1010 with a 1.0935 stop. I still do not want to be short the Euro at this time.
March Dollar Index
Late in the New York session the Dollar traded higher to my 97.50 sell level. I will now raise my T/P level on this position to 97.30 while lowering my stop level to 97.95. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
March DAX
The DAX just missed my buy level before having a small rally into the close and I am still flat. I do not like the price action in the DAX and today I will now lower my buy level to 13280/1330 with a 13215 stop.
March FTSE
The FTSE continue to trade heavy and I am still flat. Today I will again lower my sell level to 7560/7600 with a lower 7630 stop.
Dow Rolling Contract
My Dow plan worked well with the Dow trading lower to my 29020 buy level with a low of 28961 before turning around and rallying to my 29105 T/P level and I am now flat. Today I will again look to buy the Dow from 28890/29040 with the same 28795 stop. Meanwhile my only interest in selling the Dow is still on a rally higher to 29360/29520 with a 29605 stop.
March NASDAQ
The NASDAQ rallied into the close with the market hitting my 9250 sell level. I am still short and I will now raise my T/P level on this position to 9010. For now I will leave my stop unchanged at 9325.
March BUND
I am still flat the Bund and today I will again raise my buy level to 171.70/172.10 with a higher 171.35 stop
Gold Rolling Contract
The boring action continues in Gold and I am still flat. As I am still long Silver I will not chase the price of Gold higher especially as the U.S. Dollar is stronger. Therefore my 1531/1541 buy level remains unchanged with the same 1525 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change as I am still long Silver at 17.80 with the same 17.39 stop and 17.95 T/P level. Again if any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
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