U.S. Indices reversed earlier declines following the release of the Weekly Jobless Claims where labour market data missed expectations. Weekly Jobless Claims climbed back above 1 million, while Wall Street was expecting another decline. Continuing Claims, which represent those who have filed for unemployment for at least two weeks, were 14.84 million versus the expectation for 15 million and a revised 15.5 million in the week prior. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, which measures manufacturing business sentiment, also missed estimates on weakness in New Orders. Late in the day, there was a positive vaccine headline after Pfizer (PFE) and BioNTech (BNTX) said their new vaccine candidate is showing less severe side effects than their earlier one. The NASDAQ 100 closed at yet another new all-time high with a gain of 1.4%. In contrast, European Indices closed lower with the DAX falling 1.1% while the FTSE again got hit hard, closing lower by 1.6%. French President Emmanuel Macron ruled out shutting down the country again as it faces rising Coronavirus cases. Italy reported its highest number of daily new Coronavirus infections in three months. The British economy is not expected to return to pre-pandemic levels for at least two years, according to a Reuters poll of economists. In its Meeting Minutes, the European Central Bank highlighted the uncertainty over the economic recovery, indicating that the central bank’s easy money policies will continue. Elsewhere, the Dollar was weak while Treasuries again closed flat.
To mark my 2125th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it lost 15 points yesterday and is now ahead by 1782 points for August having ended July with a gain of 3128 points, 2580 points in June, 2456 points in May, 4773 points in April, an incredible 9264 points in March, 2223 points in February and 2142 points in January. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
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Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.32% higher at a price of 3385.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 45 points for a 0.17% gain to close at 27,740.
The NASDAQ rose 1.4%, closing at anew all-time high at 11,477.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index fell 1.1%.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.2%.
The Nikkei was closed for a Bank Holiday.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index decreased 0.3%.
The Euro closed 0.2% higher at $1.1855.
The British Pound closed 1.2% higher at $1.32.10.
The Japanese Yen closed 0.3% higher at 105.58 per dollar.
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries closed one basis point lower at 0.65%.
Germany’s 10-year yield fell two basis points to -0.50%.
Britain’s 10-year yield also closed flat at 0.23%.
Commodities
The Bloomberg Commodity Index rose 0.3%.
West Texas Intermediate closed 1% higher at $42.30 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.4% higher at $1,938.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we already had the release of UK Retail Sales for July which rose 3.2% versus 2.0% expected. Also released was the UK Public Sector Net Borrowing which came in at £25.9bn versus £28.3bn expected. Next. We have Markit Services/Composite Manufacturing PMI for Germany, Euro-Zone and UK at 8.30 am, 9.00 am and 9.30 am respectively. This is followed by U.S Manufacturing PMI at 2.45 pm. Finally, we have U,S Existing Home Sales and Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence at 3.00 pm.
December S&P 500
This has been the quietest August for S&P trading in many years with little or no volatility as the market grinds higher. Yesterday the S&P made a low at 3351 following the release of the Weekly Jobless Claims before spending the rest of the session tracking the NASDAQ. This move higher saw the S&P hit an overnight high at 3393.25 and I am now short at an average rate of 3384. The S&P is severely overbought and will probably test the 3400 resistance area before we see a more meaningful correction. The 20 – Day Moving Average is well below current prices at 3325 and this would be a good area to attract buying on any meaningful sell-off. Despite all three US Indices closing higher, Breadth was weak with the McClellan Oscillator closing lower at -106. This should not be happening with markets at or close to all-time highs. The 14 Day RSI is above 70 which is another warning sign. However, as long as the Fed keep buying it is extremely difficult to stay short. I will now raise my T/P level on this short position to 3377 while lowering my stop to 3405. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
I am still flat and I will now raise my buy level to 1.1770/1.1815 with a higher 1.1725 stop. I will also raise my sell level to 1.1920/1.1970 with a 1.2015 stop.
September Dollar Index
This morning the Dollar traded lower to my 92.60 buy level. I am still long and I will add to this position at 92.10 with the same 91.65 stop. I will now lower my T/P level on this position to 92.80.
September DAX
No Change as the DAX traded in a narrow range yesterday. I will continue to be a small seller from 12970/13080 with a lower 13145 stop. Meanwhile I will continue to be an aggressive buyer on any dip lower to 12640/12710 with the same 12585 stop.
September FTSE
The stronger than expected UK Retail Sales this morning is giving Sterling a boost. Consequently the FTSE continues to struggle and I am still flat. I will now lower my buy level to 5920/5960 with a lower 5885 stop. Ahead of the weekend I still do not want to be short the FTSE at this time.
Dow Rolling Contract
Shortly after I posted yesterday morning the Dow rallied to my 27630 T/P level on my 27520 latest long position and I am still flat. Just like the FTSE above the Dow is underperforming the other major US Indices. Today I will be a seller from 27950/28150 with a 28325 stop. The Dow has support from 27350/27550 where I will be a buyer with a 27225 stop.
September NASDAQ
The NASDAQ bubble gets bigger and bigger with the market making its 34th new all-time yesterday. My NASDAQ plan did not work well. I went short at an average rate of 11390, before being stopped out of this position overnight at 11515 and I am still flat. I will now look to sell the market again from 11510/11610 with a wider 11705 stop.
September BUND
I am still flat and I will now raise my buy level to 176.15/176.55 with a higher 175.75 stop.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold just missed my 1916 buy level before rallying to sit at 1945 this morning. I will leave my 1900/1916 buy level unchanged with the same 1889 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
I am still flat and I will now raise my buy level to 26.00/26.70 with a higher 25.35 stop.
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