The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 Index, and the Russell 2000 Index all made new intra-day highs before having a small sell-off into the close. Economic data was again the driver of this latest move higher. Jobs data continued their recent strength, with Jobless Claims falling to their lowest level since November. This also marked the second-lowest week for Jobless Claims since the coronavirus upended the labour markets last March. On stimulus, the House of Representatives passed the $1.9 trillion stimulus bill, sending it to President Joe Biden’s desk for final approval. Biden signed the bill into law in the afternoon, with stimulus cheques getting mailed out later in the month. Technology stocks continued to rebound as Treasury yields retreat, easing inflation fears. European Markets closed higher, led by the DAX finishing yesterday at a new all-time high. The European Central Bank (“ECB”) was the big story of the day. While it left Interest Rate and the Asset Purchase Programme, it did step up support for the European economy. The ECB said it will “significantly increase” the size of its bond purchases over the coming quarter. President Christine Lagarde stated this change is based on the Governing Council’s assessment of financing conditions and the inflation outlook. Elsewhere, German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz said he anticipates the government will use expansive fiscal policies in the coming years, rather than adhering to a balanced budget. The Italian government was said to be instituting a special purpose vehicle worth up to $48 billion, to help pandemic stricken companies raise money and shore up their balance sheets. On the vaccine front, the European Medicines Agency (“EMA”) said it would approve of Johnson & Johnson’s coronavirus vaccine. Elsewhere, Oils closed 2.56% higher after OPEC boosted its demand outlook for the second half of 2021, while Gold was mixed as the ECB said it would accelerate bond purchases to keep borrowing costs low, accelerating a rotation back into risk assets and closed flat.
To mark my 2275th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 270 points yesterday and is now ahead by 1858 points for March, having closed February with an impressive gain of 3286 points, having made 2077 points in January, 2273 points in December, 2025 points in November, 2779 points in October, 3042 points in September, 2383 points in August, 3128 points in July, 2580 points in June, 2456 points in May, 4773 points in April, and an incredible 9264 points in March. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
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Equities
The S&P 500 closed 1.04% higher at a price of 3939.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 188 points higher for a 0.58% gain at a price of 32,485.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 2.36% higher at a price of 13,052.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.6% higher.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.8%.
This morning the Nikkei closed 1.73% higher at a price of 29,717.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.3% lower.
The Euro closed 0.2% higher at $1.1955.
The British Pound closed 0.3% higher at $1.3975.
The Japanese Yen closed 0.3% higher at 108.89 per dollar.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed two basis points higher at -0.31%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed two basis points higher at 0.73%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed three basis points higher at 1.54%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1.23% higher at $63.48 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.50% higher at $1,723.80 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we already had the release of German Final CPI which came in as expected with a +1.3% print and UK GDP which fell 2.9% versus -4.9% expected. At 9.30 am we have UK Consumer Inflation Expectations and this is followed at 10.00 am by Euro-Zone Industrial Production. Finally, we have U.S PPI at 1.30 pm and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment at 3.00 pm.
March S&P 500
The S&P surged to a new all-time high yesterday recording a high price at 3957.50. This move higher had me short at 3951 before a late sell-off saw my revised 3939 T/P level filled and I am now flat. This morning the S&P is trading lower on the back of the 1% fall in NASDAQ Futures after the 10-Year Bond rose six basis points to sit at 1.60% this morning. The S&P has strong support from 3895/3910 where I will be a buyer with a 3883 ‘’Closing Stop’’. The S&P has further support from 3838/3853 where I will be an aggressive buyer with a 3825’’Closing Stop’’. My only interest in selling the S&P is on a further move higher to 3955/3970 with a 3983 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
EUR/USD
I am still flat and I will continue to be a buyer from 1.1860/1.1910 with the same 1.1825 tight stop. Ahead of the weekend I do not want to be short the Euro.
June Dollar Index
I am still flat and I will now lower my sell level to 92.05/92.45 with a lower 92.81 stop.
March DAX
I am still flat as the DAX made a new all-time yesterday despite the increase in Coronavirus cases. I will now lower my sell level to 14570/14650 with a lower 14725 stop. The DAX has short-term support from 14280/14360 where I will be a small buyer with a 14215 tight stop.
March FTSE
My latest 6740 short FTSE position worked well with the market trading lower to my 6710 T/P level and I am now flat. I will continue to be a strong buy on any further move lower to 6605/6655 with the same 6555 stop. Ahead of the weekend I do not want to be short the market.
Dow Rolling Contract
My Dow plan worked well with the market trading to a new all-time high by hitting my 32620 sell level before selling off to my revised 32540 T/P level and I am now flat. The Dow has strong resistance from 32620/32800 where I will again be a seller with the same 32925 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will now raise my buy level slightly to 31900/32050 with a 31750 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
March NASDAQ
After the NASDAQ traded higher to my 12995 sell level we saw a small retracement to my revised 12955 T/P level as emailed to my Platinum Members and I am now flat. Subsequently the NASDAQ surged 2.36%, closing above 13050. However, the spike in 10-Year Bond Yields overnight has seen a 250 point fall in the Futures Market, sitting at 12870 as I go to press. Today, I will again be a seller on any further rally to 13010/13110 with the same 13205 ‘’Closing Stop’’. The NASDAQ has support from 12680/12580 where I will be a buyer with a 12495 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
June BUND
The Bund rallied to a high of 171.90 after the ECB announced it was buying more bonds before selling off this morning on the back up in US Treasury Yields. Today, I will lower my buy level to 170.30/170.80 with a tight 169.85 stop.
Gold Rolling Contract
I am still flat Gold as the market struggles to break the key 1720 resistance area. I will now lower my buy level to 1673/1688 with a 1659 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
This morning Silver traded lower to my buy range and I am now long at 25.60. I will add to this position at 25.10 while leaving my stop unchanged at 24.85. I will now lower my T/P level to 25.90 and if any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members
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