U.S. Equities rallied late to close at a record high, while Treasuries retreated after the latest American inflation reading came in hotter than anticipated. The US Dollar dropped for a second day and Gold slipped. The S&P 500 gained for a straight third day after drifting much of the session. The benchmark briefly crossed above 3,000, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average surpassed 27,000. A mid-morning tweet from President Donald Trump, complaining about China trade policy, sent equities into a fleeting swoon and showed how sensitive the market remains to trade-related developments. Financial and Technology shares led gainers in the S&P, while Real Estate and Communications lagged. An oil rally stalled out as investors weighed the threat of a tropical storm off the U.S. Gulf Coast against the prospects of more trade conflict. Yields on 10-year Treasuries hit a one-month high.
To mark my 1875th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 93 points yesterday and is now ahead by 625 points for July, having made 1346 points in June,1722 points in May, 955 points in April, 1027 points in March, 1013 points in February and 1671 points in January. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given. This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who struck a dovish tone before a congressional panel Wednesday, returned to Capitol Hill to answer senators’ questions and suggested that the central bank has room to ease as the tie between the inflation and jobless rates has broken down. This Testimony helped keep the rate cut expectations in place for the July 30-31st meeting. Minutes from the Fed’s last meeting further cemented expectations for a cut in borrowing costs. As a result the S&P 500 Index rose 0.2% to close at a record high at 3000. Meanwhile in Europe, the Stoxx Europe 600 Index faded late in the session, putting in its fifth straight daily drop, closing 0.1% lower. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index fell 0.3%, its sixth consecutive decline. Overnight the Nikkei rose 0.2% to close at 21,625.
Currencies
Here is a summary of the main changes in F.X. Markets:
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index dipped 0.1% to the lowest in a week.
The Euro climbed less than 0.05% to $1.1255.
The British Pound climbed 0.2% to $1.2525.
The Japanese Yen rose less than 0.05% to 108.45 per dollar.
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries climbed seven basis points to 2.13%, the highest in four weeks. In Europe, Britain’s 10-year yield jumped eight basis points to 0.836%, the largest surge in 14 weeks, while Germany’s 10 Year climbed another 5 basis points to -0.26%.
Commodities
A quiet session on the Commodity front with West Texas Intermediate crude rising 0.1% to $60.47 a barrel. Meanwhile Gold dipped 0.8% to $1,407.11 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front already had the release of the German Wholesale Price Index for June which fell 0.5% versus +0.3% expected. At 10.00 am we have Euro-Zone Industrial Production. Finally, at 1.30 pm we have U.S. Producer Prices.
September S&P 500
Unfortunately the S&P just missed my 2990 buy level with a 2992 low before rallying to a new record high at 3012.50 overnight and I am still flat. Despite the Dow and S&P closing at new all-time highs, the Advance/Decline Ratio weakened on this latest push higher as shown by the McClellan Oscillator which fell yesterday to close barely in positive territory at +40. Today I will move my buy level higher to 2985/2995 with a higher a 2978 stop. If I am taken long and subsequently stopped out of this position I will be a more aggressive buyer from 2955/2965 with a 2946 stop. Meanwhile I will leave my 3020/3030 sell level unchanged with the same 3038 tight stop.
EUR/USD
No Change as I am still a small buyer on any dip in the Euro to 1.1190/1.1230 with a 1.1155 stop. Again if I am taken long and subsequently stopped out of this position I will be an aggressive buyer from 1.1080/1.1120 with a 1.1035 stop. Despite the main Moving Averages pointing to a weaker Euro I still do not want to be short the market at this time.
September Dollar Index
No Change as I am still a buyer on any dip lower to 95.80/96.20 with the same 95.35 stop.
September DAX
My DAX plan worked well with the market trading lower to my 12335 buy level before rallying to my revised 12358 T/P level with a 12380 rebound high and I am now flat. I am happy to continue to be a buyer of the DAX as long as we do not close below 12250. Today I will be a buyer from 12200/12260 with a tight 12165 stop.
September FTSE
Even though the price action has been narrow in the FTSE, the market registered its sixth consecutive fall, with the market again just missing my 7505 sell level and I am still flat. I am not going to chase the FTSE lower given the above stat, I will leave my 7505/7545 sell level unchanged with the same 7575 stop. The FTSE has support from 7380/7425 and I will be a buyer in this area with a 7345 stop.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow was the strongest of the main US Indices yesterday as the market finally broke and closed over 27000. Overnight the market rallied to my 27180 sell level before having a small sell-off to my revised 27150 T/P level as emailed earlier to my Platinum Members and I am now flat. As mentioned in my S&P commentary above, internally this market is weak as we approach what I consider to be long-term resistance. Today I will again look to sell the Dow from 27260/27410 with a 27520 stop. The Dow will have good support at last October’s 26951 previous high that held until last week and as a result I will be a small buyer from 26910/27030 with a 26840 tight stop.
September NASDAQ
I am still flat the market and today I will continue to be a seller on any further rally to 7995/8055 with a 8090 lower stop.
September BUND
Unfortunately the Bund just missed my 172.80 sell level by 13 points before getting hit for 120 points in what turned out to be one of the weakest sessions for the Bund in many months. Thankfully we had no buy levels in this market. Today I will lower my sell level to 172.25/172.65 with a 173.05 stop.
Gold Rolling Contract
Late yesterday Gold traded lower to my 1403 buy level before rallying to my revised 1407 T/P level and I am now flat. Today I will again look to buy Gold on any dip lower to 1385/1395 with a 1378 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
Just like Gold, Silver also traded lower to my 15.10 buy level. I am still long and I will now raise my stop on this position to 14.75 with a now lower 15.25 T/P level. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
GBP/USD
No Change as I am still a small buyer on any dip lower to 1.2410/1.2470 with the same 1.2380 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1.2520.
Recent Comments