U.S. Equities rose to fresh records as investor appetite for risk returned after America and Iran stepped back from the brink of war. The S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Indexes all closed at all-time highs as the conflict between the U.S. and Iran deescalated. Oil fell below $60 a barrel in New York, Gold declined for a second day and the Japanese Yen dropped to a two-week low versus the Dollar. The greenback gained against major currencies for a third straight day after Jobless Claims fell by more than expected, adding to signs of economic strength ahead of the U.S. payrolls report Friday. Ten-year Treasury yields declined following a government auction. In company news, retail took a hit from signs of poor sales before earnings ramp up next week. Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. slid 19% after results missed analyst estimates, while Kohl’s Corp. also slumped following a disappointing holiday season. Elsewhere, the Pound touched its lowest level in two weeks after Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said policy makers are debating merits of more monetary stimulus. European and Emerging-Market shares rose.
To mark my 1975th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 26 points yesterday and is now ahead by 897 points for January, having made 818 points in December, 780 points in November, 1649 points in October, 1620 points in September, 2387 points in August, 1153 points in July, 1346 points in June,1722 points in May, 955 points in April and 1027 points in March. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
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Equities
If the relative geopolitical calm holds, it will allow traders to switch focus to the next clue on the health of the world’s biggest economy, which will come with the Non-Farm jobs report. Adding to sentiment, the partial trade deal between the U.S. and China looks locked in as China’s Vice Premier will visit Washington next week for a signing ceremony.
The S&P 500 Index gained 0.7% to close at a new record high of 3275
The NASDAQ 100 Index rose 0.9%.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index climbed 0.3%.
Germany’s DAX Index jumped 1.3%.
Currencies
Here is a summary of the main Changes in F.X. Markets:
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index gained 0.1%.
The British Pound decreased 0.3% to $1.3058.
The Euro was little changed at $1.1107.
The Japanese Yen weakened 0.4% to 109.51 per dollar.
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries fell two basis points to 1.85%.
Britain’s 10-year yield was little changed at 0.819%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude was steady at $59.59 a barrel.
Gold dropped 0.4% to $1,553.40 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have no data of note from either the Euro-Zone. At 1.30 pm we have the latest U.S Non-farm Payrolls where the expectation is for a rise of 164K versus last month’s monster 266K rise. We will also see Average Earnings which are expected to have risen by 0.3% while the Unemployment Rate is expected to remain steady at 3.5%. Finally, at 3.00 pm we have Wholesale Inventories.
March S&P 500
My S&P plan worked well with the market trading higher to my initial 3272 sell level before selling off below 3265 and this move lower enabled me to cover this position at my revised 3268 T/P level and I am now flat. There is so much good news now priced into this market as we wait for the Payroll data this afternoon. We are also getting closer to my 3300/3350 target level. Today I will again look to sell the S&P from 3290/3302 with a 3311 stop. If I am taken short and subsequently stopped out of this position I will be an aggressive seller from 3319/3340 with a lower 3355 stop. I will also move my buy level higher to 3242/3254 with a higher 3234 stop.
EUR/USD
I am still long the Euro at 1.1110 with a now lower T/P level at 1.1125. I will continue to add to this position at 1.1060. I will leave my stop unchanged at 1.1025 and if any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
March Dollar Index
No Change as I am still a small seller from 97.25/97.65 with the same 98.05 stop.
March DAX
The volatility in the DAX has bee incredible since the first trading session of 2020 with the market spiking to the top of its Daily Bollinger Band on Jan 2 before selling off to the bottom of its BB on Wednesday only to reverse course with a spike higher again to the top of it’s BB yesterday. I am still flat as the market never came close to my buy level. Today I will be a small seller from 13620/13680 with a 13735 stop. Given how overbought the DAX is trading I no longer want to be long the market at this time.
March FTSE
Despite the weakness in sterling the FTSE continues to underperform the other major Indices. I am still flat and today I will leave my 7595/7645 sell level unchanged with the same 7675 stop.
Dow Rolling Contract
My Dow plan worked well with the market trading higher to my 28960 sell level before selling off to my 28890 T/P level and I am now flat. The Dow has now rallied almost 1000 points in less than 48 hours as yet again anyone shorting this market has been slammed. The Dow is severely overbought while internally the market is weak. Yesterday the VIX fell 7% to close near the lows of the year at 12.54. Today I will again look to sell the Dow from 29090/29230 with a higher 29305 stop. Given how overbought the Dow is trading I do not want to be long the market at this time.
March NASDAQ
My short NASDAQ plan did not work well as just as I go to press I have been stopped out of my 8925 short position at 9025 and I am now flat. I will again look to sell the market from 9035/9095 with a higher 9140 stop. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 8980.
March BUND
Yesterday the Bund traded lower to my second buy level at 171.00 for a now average long position at 171.25. I will now lower my T/P level to 171.50 while leaving my stop unchanged at 170.65. Again if any of the above levels are filled I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
I am still flat Gold which traded sideways which is no surprise given the huge $60 fall from the highs on early Thursday morning. Gold has support from 1512/1526 and I will be a buyer on any dip to this area with a 1505 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
My Silver plan worked well with the market trading lower to my 17.80 buy level before rallying to my revised 17.96 T/P level and I am now flat. Today I will again look to buy the market on any dip lower to 17.20/17.60 with a 16.95 stop.
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