U.S Markets were mixed after I posted yesterday morning before falling. Yesterday, House Democrats unveiled a $2.2 trillion coronavirus Stimulus Bill. There was a flurry of speeches from Federal Reserve Presidents last night. Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan said the central bank should maintain greater flexibility on interest rate adjustments. He noted the economic rebound has been stronger than anticipated. But New York Fed President John Williams said that a return to a strong economy with full employment could take up to three years. Consumer Confidence surged in September, as people became more optimistic on the short-term economic outlook. Now, investors turn to a host of events throughout the rest of the week, including Employment data and last night’s Presidential debate. Both the S&P and Dow closed lower by 0.48%. In Europe, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde told lawmakers it stands ready to act with additional economic support if the outlook worsens. Post-Brexit trade negotiation optimism rose after the European Union said it wouldn’t abandon negotiations even if the U.K. didn’t rescind plans to break parts of the agreement. Euro-Zone Economic Confidence data for September beat expectations, marking the fifth straight month of increases. Germany’s government was said to consider placing further restrictions on public gatherings to stop the spread of the coronavirus. Elsewhere, Oil closed 4% lower as Russia’s St. Petersburg International Mercantile Exchange warned that new Coronavirus restrictions will hurt the crude demand picture while Gold closed 1% higher on Dollar weakness. Overnight, we saw the Presidential Debate between President Trump and his challenger Joe Biden. This debate ended in chaos as the two classed repeatedly in what turned out to be the most chaotic and rancorous White House debates in years. Amid angry shouting and name calling, the two fought over the pandemic, white supremacy and the economy during the 90-minute forum in Cleveland, Ohio. Mr Biden called the president a “clown” and told him to “shut up”. Mr Trump brought up drug use by his rival’s son. Not surprisingly, US S&P Futures are trading over 50 Handles lower from the pre-debate prices.
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For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 290 points yesterday and is now ahead by 2912 points for September, having made 2383 points in August, 3128 points in July, 2580 points in June, 2456 points in May, 4773 points in April, an incredible 9264 points in March, 2223 points in February and 2142 points in January. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
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Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.48% lower at a price of 3338.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 131 points lower for a 0.48% decline at a price of 27,452.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.37% lower at a price of 11,322.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.72% higher.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.5%%.
This morning the Nikkei closed 1.5% lower at 23185
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.4% lower.
The Euro closed 0.2% higher at $1.1731.
The British Pound closed 0.2% higher at $1.2854.
The Japanese Yen closed 0.1% higher at 105.68 per dollar.
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries closed two basis points lower at 0.64%.
Germany’s 10-year yield closed one basis point lower at -0.54%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed unchanged at 0.20%.
Commodities
The Bloomberg Commodity Index rose 0.5%.
West Texas Intermediate closed 4.0% lower at $38.65 a barrel.
Gold closed 1% higher at $1892 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we already had the release of German Retail Sales which came in strong at +3.1% versus +0.4% expected. Also released was UK Q2 Final GDP which printed -19.8%. At 9.55 am we have German Unemployment and a speech from the ECB’s Mersch at 10.45 am. Next, we have U.S MBA Mortgage Applications at 12.00 pm and the ADP Employment Change at 1.15 pm. This number will be closely watched for any clues ahead of the NFP data on Friday. At 1.30 pm we have U.S GDP, followed by the Chicago Purchasing Mangers’ Index at 2.45 pm. Finally, at 3.00 pm we have Pending Home Sales.
December S&P 500
As expected the S&P closed most of last Friday’s ‘’Open Gap’’ with an overnight low of 3291 after last night’s chaotic Presidential Debate. This initial move lower saw the S&P hit my initial 3320 buy level before rallying to my revised 3327 T/P level and I am now flat. Given the proximity to Friday’s NFP release coupled with the positive price action on Friday and Monday I would expect any sell-off in the S&P to be contained. Today, I will be a buyer from 3280/3295 with a 3269 stop. I will now lower my sell level slightly to 3348/3362 with a lower 3373 stop.
EUR/USD
The Euro rallied after I posted yesterday morning with the market trading higher to my 1.1735 sell level. I am still short with a now revised 1.1710 T/P level. I will add to this position at 1.1780 while leaving my 1.1815 stop unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
December Dollar Index
Late yesterday the Dollar traded lower to my 93.90 buy level. I am still long with a now lower 94.15 T/P level. Meanwhile I will raise my stop on this position to 93.45.
December DAX
This morning the DAX opened in yesterday’s buy range and I am now long in small size at 12675. I will add to this position on any further move lower to 12600 with the same 12515 stop. I will now lower my T/P level to 12750 and if any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
December FTSE
My FTSE plan worked well with the market trading lower to my 5845 buy level before rallying to my revised 5875 T/P level and I am now flat. Given how oversold the FTSE is trading I will continue to be a buyer on dips. The FTSE has support from 5760/5820 where I will be a buyer with a 5715 stop.
Dow Rolling Contract
Shortly after I posted the Dow traded lower to my too tight T/P level at 27530 on Monday’s 27580 average short position and I am still flat. As long as the Dow can hold short-term support from 26850/27050 then I will continue to be a buyer on dips. I will be a buyer in this range with a 26695 stop. The Dow has resistance from 27700/27900 where I will be a seller with a 28105 wider stop.
December NASDAQ
My latest 11380 short position worked well with the market trading lower to my 11310 T/P level. Subsequently I emailed my Platinum Members to sell the NASDAQ again to sell the market again at 11380 which was filled ahead of last night’s debate before selling off to my 11300 T/P level and I am now flat. This morning the NASDAQ is trading at 11225 having hit a low of 11165. The NASDAQ has strong support from 11000/11120 where I will be an aggressive buyer with a 10925 tight stop. As long as the NASDAQ does not close above 11500, I will continue to sell rallies and today my sell range will be from 11360/11440 with a 11525 stop.
December BUND
I am still flat the Bund and I will now raise my buy level to 173.95/174.35 with a higher 173.52 stop.
Gold Rolling Contract
I will now raise my buy level to 1854/1866 with a higher 1842 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
I am still flat as the market rallied over 3% yesterday. I will now raise my buy level to 22.80/23.40 with a higher 22.35 stop.
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