U.S. Equity Markets surged again yesterday on peace optimism in Ukraine, led by the NASDAQ 100 which ended with a gain of 1.68%. Defense Minister Alexander Fomin said the military will curtail activities around Kyiv and Chernihiv. He said the change was to boost trust in ceasefire negotiations and also said Moscow seeks additional dialogue. The two sides did not achieve a cease-fire in yesterday’s negotiations, according to Bloomberg. However, the discussions were said to bear fruit in terms of moving forward. These developments sparked cautious optimism from investors, as they could indicate that we’re moving in the right direction for a diplomatic end to the invasion. Still, there is lots of pessimism over this timeline – and it’s unlikely that an agreement will be reached anytime soon. Meanwhile, Consumer Confidence rose in March and came in above estimates. But those surveyed still pointed to inflation and the Russia-Ukraine war as concerns, with inflation expectations rising to an all-time high of 7.9%, while home price growth accelerated, showing that strong demand and limited inventory was leading to a tight housing market. Apple (AAPL) extended its winning streak – marking the longest string of consecutive days for the stock since 2003. Gaming stocks boosted the discretionary sector today, on reports that Georgia’s senate was backing a referendum to legalize sports betting in the state. Energy stocks underperformed again today, dragged down by declining oil prices. ConocoPhillips (COP) and Chevron (CVX) were among the laggards in this space. Within the S&P 500, 10 of the 11 sectors finished higher. European Markets closed higher. Ukraine Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said the government seeks to improve the humanitarian situation in today’s talks with Russia and is “striving” for a cease-fire. German Consumer Confidence data for April was weaker than anticipated due to a drop in individuals’ income expectations and willingness to spend. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said consumers will face a “historic shock” from higher energy prices, adding that it will hurt economic growth. European Central Bank Supervisory board Chief Andrea Enria said regional banks could add almost $6.6 trillion dollars to their bottom line by increasing “green” financing. In Asia, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida called for the government to enact more measures to ease rising energy costs, including the extension of a fuel subsidy. The People’s Bank of China added another $20.4 billion worth of funds to the financial system in an attempt to keep liquidity stable into the quarter’s end. Bank of Korea Governor nominee Rhee Chang-Yong warned the economy faces increasing risks from inflation, implying interest rates will continue to rise.
To mark my 2500th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 29 points yesterday and is now ahead by 5903 points for March. The Platinum Service made an impressive 5324 points gain in February, after ending January with a gain of 3878 points, more than making up for December’s 932 points loss, having made 2466 points in November, 1028 points in October, 2866 points in September, 1543 points in August, and 996 points in July. The Platinum Service made 1366 points in June, 1439 points in May, 1244 points in April, after ending March with an impressive gain of 3769 points. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 1.23% higher at a price of 4631.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 338 points higher for a 0.97% gain at a price of 35,294.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 1.68% higher at a price of 15,239.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 2.9% higher.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.4%.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 0.50% higher at a price of 28,083.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.5% lower.
The Euro closed 0.7% higher at $1.1072.
The British Pound closed 0.2% lower at 1.3072.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.8%, closing at $122.80.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed six basis points higher at 0.64%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed two basis points higher at 1.64%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed nine basis points lower 2.39%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1% lower at $103.08 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.3% lower at $1909.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have a speech from ECB President Lagarde at 9.10 am, followed by Euro-Zone Economic Sentiment Indicator at 10.00 am. Next, we have German CPI at 1.00 pm and this is followed by U.S. ADP Employment Change at 1.15 pm. Finally, at 1.30 pm we have GDP and PCE.
Cash S&P 500
The S&P made a new recovery high at 4537 yesterday evening after it was announced that Russia would scale back some of its aggression. The S&P has now rallied a staggering 500 Handles in just over two weeks in what has turned out to be one of the most vicious rallies in points terms ever. It has not been a healthy rally led by a few stocks like Tesla and Apple. Apple shares now account for 7.2% of the S&P 500 stocks which is the highest of any share since 1980. Market Cap to GDP is back at 190%, rising on negative divergence. With the VIX falling 4% yesterday, all outstanding ‘’Open Gaps’’ in the VIX since January have now been filled. The S&P Weekly Bollinger Band which was tested at the 4137 low has now held which is a trend going all the way back to 2009 when the Fed started their QE programme. Apart from a 25- basis point rate hike the Fed has done nothing but only talk as QE will still not end until May. Coupled with a record number of share buybacks it is no wonder the market has recovered. Yesterday’s aggressive move higher saw the whole of my sell range filled for a now 4600 average short position with a now higher 4585 T/P level. I will continue to have no stop for now. The S&P still has one ‘’Open Gap’’ at 4650 and I will add to this position at this price level. I no longer want to be long the S&P at this time.
EUR/USD
The Euro surged yesterday, hitting an afternoon high at 1.1135. This move higher saw my 1.1010 T/P level filled as thankfully I had no sell level in the Euro over the past few days. Building value above 1.1055 is bullish for a move higher to 1.12. Today, I will be a small buyer from 1.1000/1.1050 with a tight 1.0959 stop. I still do not want to be short the Euro at this time.
March Dollar Index
The Dollar traded the whole of my buy range for a now 98.40 average long position. I will now lower my T/P level to 98.60 while leaving my stop unchanged at 97.85. If any of the above levels are filled I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash DAX
The DAX has now rallied a quiet unbelievable 2400 points off this month’s 12500 low print as one short position after another gets slammed. This rally has not given anyone who is short or under invested a chance to buy the market. The DAX is now severely overbought but with the ECB still printing it is difficult to be short. The DAX has resistance from 15050/15150 where I will be a small seller with a 15225 tight stop. I no longer want to be long the DAX at this time.
Cash FTSE
My FTSE plan worked well with the market trading higher to my 7570 sell level before selling off to my 7524 revised T/P level and I am now flat. The FTSE is not following the other main Indexes higher and this is a potential warning sign as the FTSE has been the first market to top over the past 12 months. The FTSE has further resistance from 7595/7655 where I will again be a seller with a 7705 stop. I still do not want to be long the FTSE at this time.
Dow Rolling Contract
Yesterday’s rally saw the VIX fall a further 4%, closing at a price of 18.85. The VIX has been crushed over the past week, from a recent high above 32. The Dow rallied the whole of my sell range for a 35230 average short position. Subsequently, the Dow fell 200 points, enabling me to cover this position at my too tight 35187 T/P level. Nine of my calls hit yesterday and I had too many open positions and had to cut a few trades. In hindsight, I should have exited my NDX short position. Given how overbought the Dow is trading, I will continue to be a seller of rallies. Today. My sell range will be from 35360/35610 with no stop for now. I no longer want to be long the Dow at this. The ‘’Fear & Greed’’ Index closed slightly higher at 54 last night which is still a ‘’Neutral’’ Reading. Last night the McClellan Oscillator improved to close at an overbought print of + 225.
Cash NASDAQ 100
My NASDAQ plan did not work well as after the NDX rallied to my second sell level at 15140 for a 15080 average short position, I was stopped out of this trade near the close at 15255 and I am still flat. Yesterday’s near 2% surge saw the NDX close over its 200 Day Moving Average (15131) a move that I did not think would happen. The NDX is now severely overbought and has further resistance from 15320/15420 where I will be an aggressive seller with no stop for now. Given how overbought the NDX I do not want to be long the market at this time despite the fact that all three U.S Indexes have now closed above their respective 50 and 200 Day Moving Averages.
June BUND
I have certainly lost my edge in the Bund as I was again stopped out of my latest 158.10 long position at 157.25 and I am now flat. I am going to stay flat until I feel more comfortable in taking a position in this severely oversold market.
Gold Rolling Contract
My Gold plan again worked well yesterday with the market trading the whole of my buy range for an 1897 average long position before rallying to my 1914 T/P level and I am now flat. This morning, Gold is trading higher at 1917. We have support from 1887/1902 where I will again be a buyer with the same 1873 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
The sell-off in Gold saw Silver hit my second buy level at 24.40 for a now 24.70 average long position. I will now lower my T/P level to 24.95, while leaving my 23.95 stop unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
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