Markets returned from the weekend in escalation mode after the US and Iran failed to reach an agreement, with Equity Futures lower, oil surging, and Treasuries under pressure. However, sentiment improved throughout the session on reports that talks remain ongoing and progress is being made, with the possibility of another in-person meeting before the ceasefire expires. Equities pared initial losses, with the Russell outperforming, while the Dow lagged amid weakness in Goldman Sachs (GS) following softer FICC trading revenues. Oil prices settled higher but well off overnight peaks, while Treasuries reversed earlier losses to close firmer. In FX, price action was largely driven by oil, with the Canadian Dollar outperforming and the Japanese Yen lagging, while the Dollar weakened, reversing earlier strength. Precious metals were mixed, with gold little changed and silver softer, while Bitcoin posted gains. Overall, the session reflects a shift away from immediate escalation risk as talks kept the prospects for peace alive, unwinding some of the geopolitical risk premium seen overnight. Markets are increasingly focused on the prospect of a negotiated outcome, although this remains sensitive to further headline risk. Existing Home Sales fell 3.6% M/M in March to 3.98 million from 4.09 million, and beneath the expected 4.06 million. Inventory of homes for sale was 1.36 million units or 4.1 months’ worth (prev. 3.8 months’ worth), while median home price for existing homes rose 1.4% Y/Y to USD 408,800. NAR Chief Economist Dr. Lawrence Yun noted that, “March home sales remained sluggish and below last year’s pace, as lower consumer confidence and softer job growth continues to hold back buyers.” Yun added, “because inventory remains limited, the median home price rose to a new record high for the month of March.” Elsewhere, Oil closed 1.25% higher but well off earlier highs while Gold was flat following another volatile trading session.
To mark my 3350th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it was flat yesterday and is still ahead by 2103 points for April after ending March with a massive gain of 9002 points, having closed February with a strong gain of 5482 points after ending January with a gain of 4757 points, having closed December with a gain of 2599 points, after ending the month of November with a gain of 4542 points, after ending October with a nice gain of 5110 points after closing September with a gain of 3774 points while ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 1.02% higher at a price of 6886.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 301 points higher for a 0.63% gain at a price of 48,218.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 1.06% higher at a price of 25,383
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.16% lower.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.8% lower.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 0.74% lower at a price of 56,502.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.25% lower.
The Euro closed 0.31% higher at $1.1760.
The British Pound closed 0.18% higher at $1.3505.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.04% closing at $159.32.
Bonds
U.K.’s 10-Year Gilt closed 5 basis points higher at 4.82%.
Germany’s 10-Year Bund Yield closed 1 basis points higher at 3.06%
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 2 basis points lower at 4.30%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1.13% higher at $97.66 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.25% higher at $4742.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have German WPI at 7.00 am, followed by U.S. NFIB Small Business Optimism at 11.00 am and the ADP Employment Change at 1.15 pm. Next, we have PPI at 1.30 pm. Finally, we have speeches from Fed Members Goolsbee, Barr, Barkin and Collins at 5.10 pm, 5.45 pm, 6.00 pm and 6.05 pm respectively.
Cash S&P 500
My ‘’Nothing Matters’’ theme from 2025 shows no sign of ending anytime soon. Overnight the S&P hit a low at 6729 before attracting large buying all day Monday, helping the S&P to close within 2% of all-time highs at a price of 6886. This move has occurred despite Oil trading 60% higher from its February lows pushing CPI to a rate of 3.3% Y/Y which is the highest level since May 2024 and a huge increase compared to February’s 2.4% print. Of course, Wall Street tells us this is just a short-term event because of oil prices. My view that such events are contagious and eventually effect areas previous thought to be immune. A few weeks ago, a nonpartisan Washington think tank called the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget published a report called: ‘’BREAK GLASS: A PLAN FOR THE NEXT ECONOMIC SHOCK.’’ It points out that the United States has never entered an economic downturn as indebted as it is today, meaning there is essentially zero fiscal space to respond to the next crisis. When the Financial Crisis hit in 2008, U.S. national debt stood at roughly 35% of GDP. By the time it was over, debt had ballooned to about 70%. Then, when COVID hit in 2020, debt was already at 80% of GDP. By the time that was over, it had surged past 100%. Today, the official national debt is almost 130% of GDP which is well beyond the WORLD WAR 2 RECORD. In my opinion a crash in the stock market is coming – the question is the WHEN and from WHERE. The S&P has left a massive 125 Handle Gap from last Wednesday’s surge and I still believe that it is only a matter of time before this gets filled. Even though I am bearish the stock market I will still use any tag of this gap to be a short-term buyer. However, I cannot chase prices higher against this backdrop. The S&P is now trading at levels where large supply hit the market in February/March. Monday’s move higher saw the S&P hit my revised sell level for a now 6861 average short position. I will leave my 6891 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged while raising my T/P level to 6833. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members. As I go to post this is my only short equity position.
EUR/USD
Just before the New York close the Euro rallied to my 1.1760 sell level. I am still short with a now higher 1.1700 T/P level. I will continue to look to add to this position at 1.1840 while leaving my 1.1905 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dollar Index
Frustratingly, the Dollar hit a high at 99.18 – two points below my T/P level before falling 70 points. I am still long at 98.65 with a now lower 99.05 T/P level. I will continue to look to add to this position at 97.95 while leaving my 97.25 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Russell 2000
I am still flat. Today, I will continue to be a seller from 2680/2740 with a higher 2795 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 2635.
FTSE 100
No Change: I will not chase the market lower as I continue to be a seller on any further rally to 10710/10810 with the same 10905 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 10630.
Dow Rolling Contract
Frustratingly, the Dow missed Monday’s buy range by 90 points before rallying 900 points into the close. I am still flat as thankfully we had no sell level in yesterday’s Daily Commentary. The Dow has short-term resistance from 48500/48800 where I will be a small seller with a 49005 ‘Closing Stop’. I no longer want to be long the Dow at this time.
Cash NASDAQ 100
Just like the Dow above the NDX just missed Monday’s buy range by 40 points before rallying over 700 points off these lows into the close and I am still flat. The NDX has resistance above from 25700/26000 where I will be a seller with a 26205 tight ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 25430.
December BUND
The Bund traded lower to my second buy level at 125.25 for a now 125.60 average long position. I will leave my 124.55 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged while lowering my T/P level to 126.20. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members
Gold Rolling Contract
No Change: Unfortunately, I have no edge in Gold at this time. Gold had its weakest month (March) since 2008 despite a late rally at the end of the Month that has continued into April. I still do not trust the rally in Gold. My only interest in buying Gold is on a dip lower to 4280/4380 with the same 4195 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 4470. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change: I am still flat. I will continue to stay flat Silver until I feel I have a better edge. This is no harm given the extraordinary volatility that we are witnessing at this time. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
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