It was a risk-on trade on Wednesday with the S&P 500 going on to print a fresh record high, with markets completely unwinding the downside seen since the start of the US/Iran war. Optimism remains around an end to the war with US President Trump reiterating overnight that he sees the war being very close to over, while there were reports about a two-week ceasefire extension, but both sides denied it had reached out to offer such an olive branch. Although the overall market tone was positive with stocks surging, oil prices settled flat in a two-way trade. Oil was sold on optimism, but gains were seen after a bullish EIA inventory report, seeing crude settle unchanged. However, post-settlement weakness was seen amid reports that Iran could consider ships being able to sail through the Oman side of the Strait of Hormuz, but it depends on whether the US is prepared to meet Iran’s demands. The upside in Equities led to outflow of traditional havens with the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc, U.S. Dollar, T-notes and Gold all lower, while Bitcoin saw further gains. QQQ (+1.4%) finished firmer for the 11th day in a row, supported by strength in the Mag7 and a continued rebound in software. In Europe, ASML (ASML, -2.4%) beat on earnings; however, the Q2 revenue outlook missed, weighing on shares. In financials, earnings continued to be positive, with the latest beats seen from Morgan Stanley (MS, +4.5%) and Bank of America (BAC, +1.8%) Business activity increased moderately in New York State in April; the headline general Business Conditions Index rose eleven points to 11.0 (exp. -2.0). New orders and shipments increased significantly; New Orders to 19.3 from 6.4, and Shipments to 20.2 from -6.9. Unfilled orders rose, and delivery times lengthened. Supply availability worsened somewhat. Employment expanded, and the average workweek increased. The pace of input price increases picked up sharply after slowing last month, while the pace of selling price increases was little changed. Prices Paid jumped to 51.0 from 36.6, while prices received were little changed at 21.8 from 21.4. Firms remained optimistic that conditions would improve in the months ahead, though optimism moderated and capital spending plans weakened. Summarising the data, Pantheon Macroeconomics writes that the report shows the sector is holding up well and companies are absorbing the recent jump in costs in their margins for now. Import Prices rose 0.8% in March (exp. 2%, prev. 1.3%), while Export Prices lifted 1.6% (exp. 1.5%, prev. 1.5%), as the former jumped 2.1% Y/Y, the strongest annual growth since December 2024. Most of the monthly gain was driven by non-fuel imports rather than fuel imports, as fuel import prices only rose 2.9% in March, despite the Middle East war, which has caused global energy prices to soar. Ahead, risks are leaning towards higher import prices in 2026 due to higher global oil prices. Overall, Oxford Economics adds, while headline inflation will be pushed higher by fuel prices this year, they expect the passthrough to core prices will be muted, and as such see core inflation to average 2.8% in 2026, which should be contained enough to allow the Fed to stay focused on risks to the labour market. Fed Member Hammack thinks that rates are in a good place, and the baseline is that the Fed will stay on hold for a while. She warned of two-way risks, but she will be watching the data, acknowledging that it is a tough time for monetary policy. She said the key is how high energy prices get, and how long they remain there. She said this could bring inflation higher, but it could also hit growth. She exclaimed the importance of keeping inflation expectations anchored, which she said are reasonably well contained. Elsewhere, Oil closed flat while Gold was weak ending Wednesday’s session with a 1% loss.
To mark my 3350th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it lost 140 points yesterday and is now ahead by 1306 points for April after ending March with a massive gain of 9002 points, having closed February with a strong gain of 5482 points after ending January with a gain of 4757 points, having closed December with a gain of 2599 points, after ending the month of November with a gain of 4542 points, after ending October with a nice gain of 5110 points after closing September with a gain of 3774 points while ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.80% higher at a price of 7022.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 72 points lower for a 0.15% loss at a price of 48,463.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 1.40% higher at a price of 26,204
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.43% lower.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.5% lower.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 0.44% higher at a price of 58,134.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.07% lower.
The Euro closed 0.09% higher at $1.1802.
The British Pound closed 0.04% higher at $1.3571.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.11% closing at $158.97.
Bonds
U.K.’s 10-Year Gilt closed 3 basis points higher at 4.76%.
Germany’s 10-Year Bund Yield closed 1 basis points higher at 3.04%
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 2 basis points higher at 4.28%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.38% lower at $90.93 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.88% lower at $4788.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have U.K. GDP and Industrial Production at 7.00 am. This is followed by Euro-Zone CPI at 10.00 am while at 12.30 pm the ECB will publish the Minutes of last Month’s Meeting. At 1.30 pm we have U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. Next, we have a speech from Fed Member Williams at 1.35 pm and Industrial Production/ Capacity Utilisation at 2.15 pm. Finally, at 4.30 pm we have the Fed’s Balance Sheet.
Cash S&P 500
Stocks managed to rally again, with the S&P 500 rising to a new closing high. This may seem somewhat unusual given the broader macro backdrop. However, the dispersion trade I discussed yesterday remains very strong and continues to rotate across mega-cap names. In fact, the equal-weight RSP ETF is still roughly 3% off its highs. Tesla had its opportunity to rally yesterday, rising by more than 7%. Notably, it was not just the stock price that increased—implied volatility also moved higher, reaching around 60% for the $390 calls expiring on April 24. The company is scheduled to report results on April 22. Unfortunately, a rising stock price alongside rising volatility is a key feature of implied volatility dispersion, and we are seeing this dynamic play out across the market. The same pattern is evident in Meta, where implied volatility for the $670 calls expiring on May 1 is also increasing in tandem with the stock price. This is the trade: rising implied volatility at the single-stock level combined with falling implied volatility at the index level—resulting in a classic implied volatility dispersion trade in action. That is why the dispersion index has risen to 38.3 and is back near its highs. This is a pattern we tend to see every quarter. Taiwan Semiconductor is set to report results this afternoon, and its implied volatility has climbed to around 100%. There is also a significant amount of gamma concentrated in the $375-$380 range. Following the earnings release, the implied volatility that has surged into the event is likely to decline sharply—potentially by 40% to 50%. This would cause both call and put premiums to decay rapidly as volatility compresses. This dynamic could result in the stock trading sharply lower after earnings, similar to the move seen in Micron following its report. This is largely due to the significantly higher amount of call delta relative to put delta, meaning call options carry substantially more premium at risk of decay. With max pain around $350 and a put wall near $340, combined with the recent run-up in the stock, a pullback would not be surprising. In my opinion, such a move would likely reflect the unwind of elevated implied volatility heading into the results. We will see how it plays out. It can provide a playbook for what comes in the other names we seeing the same in. In the meantime, the liquidity squeeze began to emerge today, with the TGA rising to approximately $780 billion, up from around $760 billion yesterday. While it may not be immediately visible in the broader market, it should be reflected in the overnight funding markets, with the overnight repo rate trading around 3.75%. This suggests that SOFR is likely to print near that level today, potentially at or even above the ceiling of the Fed Funds corridor. My expectation is that the TGA will exceed $1 trillion, which should result in reserves declining to around $2.8-$2.9 trillion. That would place us back at the lower end of what is considered ample reserves—a range that previously contributed to funding pressures last October. While it is unclear whether the pressures will be as severe this time, Wednesday’s activity may have offered an early indication of how these dynamics could begin to unfold. Internally the market was weak yesterday despite the S&P closing at a new all-time high falling to +177 from Tuesday’s +197 close. Meanwhile the Dow is struggling and is tracing out a similar pattern to 2000 when both the S&P and NDX made new highs before falling over 50% for the S&P and 78% for the NDX. Wednesday’s move higher saw the whole of my sell range triggered for a now 7019 average short position. With the RSI closing at 70 I certainly do not want to be long the market at this time. I will leave my 7051 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged while having no T/P level for now. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
No Change: I am still short the Euro from Monday at a price of 1.1760 with the same 1.1700 T/P level. I will continue to look to add to this position at 1.1840 while leaving my 1.1905 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dollar Index
I am still long the Dollar from last week at a price of 98.65 with the same 99.05 T/P level. I will continue to look to add to this position at 97.95 while leaving my 97.25 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Russell 2000
The Russell traded in a narrow range on Wednesday. I am still short at 2700 with the same 2650 T/P level. I will continue to look to add to this position at 2750. While leaving my 2795 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
FTSE 100
The FTSE has traded heavy all-week and I am still flat. Today, I will lower my sell level to 10650/10750 with a lower 10865 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 10580.
Dow Rolling Contract
My Dow plan worked well as the market sold off to my revised 48360 sell level from Tuesday’s 48550 short position and I am now flat. It is noticeable how the Dow is underperforming the strength of both the NASDAQ 100 and S&P at this time. Today, I will again be a seller of the Dow on any further rally to 48780/49080 with a higher 49405 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 48510. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash NASDAQ 100
Wrong! The NDX tagged on a further 1.4% on Wednesday for a 14% rally since the end of March. I certainly did not see this move happening as the NDX has now rallied over 3500 points in the past two weeks, which is just incredible given the backdrop. This move higher saw my second sell level at 26000 triggered for a 25875 average short position before stopping me out of this trade on the close at 26205 and I am still flat. The 14-Day RSI closed at an overbought 71 last night. The NDX has further resistance from 26280/26530 where I will again be a strong seller with a higher 26705 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 25930.
December BUND
I am still flat. Today, I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 124.80/125.50 with the same 124.15 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 126.10.
Gold Rolling Contract
No Change: Unfortunately, I have no edge in Gold at this time. Gold had its weakest month (March) since 2008 despite a late rally at the end of the Month that has continued into April. I still do not trust the rally in Gold. My only interest in buying Gold is on a dip lower to 4280/4380 with the same 4195 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 4470. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Silver Rolling Contract
Silver rallied 5% yesterday and is now 30% higher from its March low at $61. I still do not want to chase the price of Silver higher as I believe like Gold both of these markets are due a bigger correction. For this reason I will continue to stay flat Silver until I feel I have a better edge. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Please Note: There will be no Daily Commentary tomorrow. Any of my calls that are not executed today and are subsequently triggered on Friday will see me return with updated emails for my Platinum Members.
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