U.S. Indexes were mixed on Monday as renewed geopolitical tensions weighed on sentiment, after Iran re-closed the Strait of Hormuz. The move pushed oil prices higher at the reopen, while Equity and Treasury Futures sold off, although these moves pared through the session. Crude ultimately settled firmly higher, albeit off overnight peaks. Focus remains on the outlook for US/Iran talks, with conflicting reports around timing and participation. US media suggest Vice President Vance, Witkoff and Kushner could meet with the Iranian delegation as soon as Tuesday or Wednesday, while Iranian reports indicate no decision has yet been made. President Trump also signalled he is unlikely to extend the ceasefire or remove the US blockade without a deal, while Iran has pushed for the blockade to be lifted before negotiations resume, underscoring the fluid nature of the situation. The move in oil drove cross-asset price action, with the Treasury curve flattening as higher crude prices lifted inflation expectations. However, the initial gap lower in T-note futures largely reversed as the session progressed. In FX, price action was mixed, with oil-linked currencies such as the Canadian Dollar outperforming, while the U.S Dollar and Japanese Yen lagged. In Equities, sector performance was mixed, with Materials outperforming and Communication Services lagging. Precious metals weakened as higher oil prices boosted inflation expectations and reduced the likelihood of near-term Fed easing, while Bitcoin posted gains. Overall, markets are reintroducing a geopolitical risk premium, with oil driving cross-asset moves, although the paring of initial reactions highlights a degree of caution as participants await clearer signals on the path of US/Iran negotiations. Focus remains on the outlook for US/Iran negotiations, with mixed reporting around the likelihood of upcoming talks. There was no US macro data on Monday, and the Fed is now in its blackout period. Attention turns to the hearing for Fed Chair nominee Warsh, whose opening remarks emphasise the importance of Fed independence. Elsewhere, Oil closed higher by 5.5% while Gold closed 0.35% lower.
To mark my 3350th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 130 points yesterday and is now ahead by 1011 points for April after ending March with a massive gain of 9002 points, having closed February with a strong gain of 5482 points after ending January with a gain of 4757 points, having closed December with a gain of 2599 points, after ending the month of November with a gain of 4542 points, after ending October with a nice gain of 5110 points after closing September with a gain of 3774 points while ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.24% lower at a price of 7109.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 5 points lower for a 0.01% loss at a price of 49,442.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.31% lower at a price of 26,590
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.82% lower.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.3% higher.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 0.60% higher at a price of 58,824.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.05% lower.
The Euro closed 0.11% higher at $1.1787.
The British Pound closed 0.08% higher at $1.3540.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.18% closing at $158.80.
Bonds
U.K.’s 10-Year Gilt closed 8 basis points higher at 4.77%.
Germany’s 10-Year Bund Yield closed 2 basis points higher at 2.98%
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 1 basis points higher at 4.26%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 5.55% higher at $87.17 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.37% lower at $4837.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have U.K. Unemployment including Average Earnings at 7.00 am. This is followed by Euro-Zone and German ZEW Surveys’ at 10.00 am. Next, we have U.S. ADP Employment Change at 1.15 pm and Retail Sales at 1.30 pm. Finally, we have Pending Home Sales and Business Inventories at 3.00 pm followed by a speech from Fed Member Waller at 7.30 pm.
Cash S&P 500
The S&P has rallied in a straight line since the 6316 March 30th low. This move higher saw the 14-Day RSI move from an oversold print of 27 to a now overbought 73 which is very unusual to have such a sharp reversal in a matter of days. The S&P had one of its strongest 10-day rallies in years and is well over due a 100/150 Handle correction to work off some of its overbought conditions. Another reason that I am short is the fact that the 30-Year Treasury rate has not made the same move as the S&P. This begs the question as to what does the Bond Market know that the stock market does not? It may have nothing to do with the war in Iran but instead linked to inflation generally or private credit. The point is the correlation between stocks and bonds is not playing out the way I expect which tells me to be cautious with this massive surge in stocks. I am still short the S&P at an average rate of 7019. For the sixth consecutive Sunday re-opening trading session the S&P has bottomed within the first 30 minutes before attracting strong buying. I will now have a T/P level at 6990 while I will continue to have no stop for now. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
My 1.1800 average short Euro position worked well as the market sold off to my 1.1740 T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a seller from 1.1830/1.1910 with a higher 1.2005 ‘Closing Stop’. If triggered, I will have a T/P level at 1.1760. I still do not want to be long the Euro at this time
Dollar Index
I am still long the Dollar at an average rate of 98.30 with the same 97.25 ‘Closing Stop’. I will now lower my T/P level to 98.70. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Russell 2000
I am still short the Russell at an average rate of 2725 from last Friday. To reduce risk, I will leave my 2700 T/P level unchanged with the same 2795 ‘Closing Stop’. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
FTSE 100
My latest 10680 short FTSE position worked well as the market sold off to my 10610 T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a seller from 10680/10780 with the same 10865 ‘Closing Stop’. If triggered, I will have a T/P level at 10610. I still do not want to be long the FTSE at this time.
Dow Rolling Contract
It was frustrating getting stopped out of the Dow on Friday especially as the Dow at one stage yesterday morning was trading 500 points lower. I do not have an edge in the Dow at these levels, and I am going to stay flat today. If the market rallies from here I will look to set up a short position. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash NASDAQ 100
Unfortunately, the NDX just missed my 26350-buy level before rallying 250 points off its 26379 low print into the close. I will now raise my T/P level to 26420 T/P level. I will have a 26705 ‘Closing Stop’ on this position. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
December BUND
I am still flat. I have no interest in buying the Bund at this time. Today, I will lower my sell level to 126.80/127.60 with a lower 128.45 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 126.20.
Gold Rolling Contract
No Change: Unfortunately, I have no edge in Gold at this time. Gold had its weakest month (March) since 2008 despite a late rally at the end of the Month that has continued into April. I still do not trust the rally in Gold. My only interest in buying Gold is on a dip lower to 4280/4380 with the same 4195 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 4470. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change: I have been flat Silver for the past four weeks. Silver has short-term support from 73.00/76.00 where I will be a small buyer with a 70.95 wider ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 79.30. I still do not want to be short Silver at this time.
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