U.S. Equity Markets gained on optimism of a stimulus deal, led by the Russel 2000 which closed the day higher by 2.45%. Markets rose after a bipartisan group of lawmakers unveiled their Stimulus proposal. The main Bill comes in at $750 billion, including things like small business loans and unemployment insurance. The group also unveiled a smaller Bill ($160 billion) for state and local governments and liability protections. Overnight, Congressional leaders meet to discuss the proposals. Vaccine news was also positive. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration’s said the Moderna Coronavirus vaccine candidate’s clinical trial data met the requirements for an emergency use authorisation (“EUA”). It said the benefits outweigh the risks in people 18 and older. The FDA’s advisory committee will now meet on Thursday in order to approve or deny the EUA application. European Indices again closed higher. European Union Chief Brexit Negotiator Michel Barnier said an agreement with the U.K. was possible within days after a late concession from Prime Minister Boris Johnson. European Central Bank Governing Council Member Ollie Rehn said he considers the recently raised Asset Purchase levels as “not a target but a ceiling for now.” Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte said the country would need to introduce additional social-distancing measures over the holidays to avoid a resurgence of Coronavirus infections. The European Union is said to be considering threatening to break up big tech companies if they engage in anti-competitive behavior. Elsewhere, Oil closed 1.26% higher on growth optimism, while Gold jumped 1.40% on Dollar weakness.
To mark my 2200th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 170 points yesterday and is now ahead by 1260 points for December, having finished November with a gain of 2025 points, 2779 points in October, 3042 points in September, 2383 points in August, 3128 points in July, 2580 points in June, 2456 points in May, 4773 points in April, an incredible 9264 points in March, 2223 points in February and 2142 points in January. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
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Equities
The S&P 500 closed 1.29% higher at a price of 3694.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 337 points higher for a 1.13% gain at a price of 30,199.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 1.07% higher at a price of 12,595.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.5% higher.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.3%.
This morning the Nikkei closed 0.26% higher at a price of 26,757.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.2% lower.
The Euro closed 0.2% higher at $1.2165.
The British Pound rose 0.7% to close at $1.3330.
The Japanese Yen closed 0.6% higher at 103.55
per dollar.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield two basis points higher at -0.61%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed five basis points higher at 0.27%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed two basis points higher at 0.91%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1.26% higher at $4664 a barrel.
Gold closed 1.40% higher at $1,846.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we already had the release of UK November CPI which rose 0.3% versus +0.6% expected. Next, we have German, Euro-Zone and UK Markit Services PMI at 8.30 am, 9.00 am and 9.30 am respectively. At 10.00 am we have Euro-Zone Trade Balance and Construction, followed by U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications at 12.00 pm. This is followed by U.S Retail Sales at 1.30 pm and Markit Manufacturing PMI at 2.45 pm. Business Inventories and the NAHB Housing Market Index will be released at 3.00 pm. Finally, we have the FOMC Rate Announcement at 7.00 pm and Fed Chair Powell Press Conference at 7.30 pm.
March S&P 500
I have now rolled to the March Contract which trades at an eight Handle Discount to the December Contract which expires on Friday. Yesterday, my December plan worked well with the market trading higher to my 3672 sell level before selling off to my 3664 revised T/P level and I am now flat. Yesterday’s move higher left another ‘’Open Gap’’ in the March Contract from Monday’s 3639 close to yesterday afternoon’s 3652 low print. So much risk and good news is already priced into the S&P ahead of a new Stimulus Bill (possibly by end of the week) and the latest FOMC Meeting this evening. The Fear & Greed Index still has a reading of ‘’Extreme Greed’’ while internally the market continues to struggle as shown by the McClellan Oscillator which is barley in positive territory, closing last night at +30. The March Contract has support from 3652/3667 where I will be a buyer with a ‘’3639 Closing Stop’’. We have resistance from 3708/3723 where I will be a small seller with a 3737 stop.
EUR/USD
I am still flat the Euro and ahead of the FOMC Meeting I will now raise my sell level to 1.2210/1.2270 with a 1.2315 stop. I am not going to chase the Euro higher and I will leave my 1.2040/1.2090 buy level unchanged with the same 1.1995 stop.
March Dollar Index
Overnight, the Dollar traded lower to my 90.30 buy level. I am still long with a now 90.65 lower T/P level. I will add to this position at a price of 89.80 with the same 89.45 stop. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update form my Platinum Members.
March DAX
I have now rolled to the March Contract which trades at a small 10- point Discount to the December Contract. Thankfully we had no sell level in the DAX yesterday with the market now trading 250 points higher from where I marked prices 24 hours ago. The DAX is severely overbought as the market prices in more Stimulus from the German Government as the country goes into another lock-down from this evening until January 10. The March DAX has resistance from 13595/13685 where I will be a small seller with a 13745 stop. I will be a buyer on any dip lower to 13180/13260 with a 13095 stop.
March FTSE
I have now rolled to the March Contract which trades at a 45- point Discount to the December Contract. The FTSE traded heavy yesterday as London hits Tier 3 restrictions from this evening. The March Contract has resistance from 6550/6610 where I will be a seller with a 6655 stop. We have short-term support from 6390/6440 where I will be a buyer with a 6345 stop.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow saw plenty of two-way price action in yesterday’s session. Shortly after I posted the Dow rallied to my 30030 T/P level on my latest 29990 long position before rallying 150 points. Subsequently the announcement that a Stimulus Bill is imminent saw the Dow surge into the close and is currently trading above 30200 as I go to press. The Dow has resistance from 30450/30630 where I will be a small seller with a 30755 tight stop. I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 29750/29950 with a 29595 stop.
March NASDAQ
I have now rolled to the March Contract which trades at a small 5 Point Premium to the December Contract. I was lucky as yesterday as the December Contract sold-off to my 11490 T/P level after hitting my 11540 sell level before lunch and I am still flat. The NASDAQ has strong support from 11460/11540 and I will raise my buy level to this area with a 11355 stop. Ahead of the FOMC Meeting I do not want to be short the NASDAQ at this time.
March BUND
No Change as I am still a seller on any further rally to 178.75/179.25 with the same 179.61 tight stop.
Gold Rolling Contract
Despite every dip getting bought in Gold the market is struggling to break the key 1850/1900 resistance area. I am still flat and today, I will continue to be a small buyer from 1805/1821 with a 1792 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
Gold fell shy of my 23.70 buy level with a 23.80 low print before rallying to sit at 24.80 as I go to press. I will now raise my buy level to 23.70/24.30 with a higher 23.25 stop.
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