U.S. Equity Markets took a breather yesterday after hitting all-time highs, closing the day mixed as the S&P closed 0.11% lower while the Small Cap Russell 2000 closed at yet another all-time high with a gain of 0.43%. There were few drivers in yesterday’s session. House Democrats released a first draft coronavirus-aid bill that included stimulus cheques worth $1,400, hoping for a vote by the end of February. The White House added that any stimulus package was likely to be passed through reconciliation, conceding that a bipartisan agreement won’t happen. Federal Reserve speakers reiterated continued support for the economy. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said that the economy still needs support, while adding that the tapering of asset purchases was not on the horizon. In terms of economic data, Job Openings rose in December, indicating that businesses are looking to hire more. But the pace of actual hirings fell. Earnings season is still something to watch, with the final major reports coming this week. European Markets closed lower. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde pledged continued economic support as the coronavirus pandemic remains a significant downside risk. The Bank of France said the country’s economy was running about 5% below pre-pandemic levels, while also reaffirming its estimate for 5% growth in 2021. German export data for the month of December were stronger than expected, indicating activity in Europe’s largest economy continues to hold up despite social-distancing restrictions. European Union Coronavirus vaccinations rose to 17.2 million yesterday, with a daily average of 643,000 doses administered over the last week. Elsewhere, Bitcoin surged by a further 6.67% while Oil and Gold closed flat.
To mark my 2250th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 100 points yesterday and is now ahead by 775 points for February, having finished January with a gain of 2077 points, 2273 points in December, 2025 points in November, 2779 points in October, 3042 points in September, 2383 points in August, 3128 points in July, 2580 points in June, 2456 points in May, 4773 points in April, and an incredible 9264 points in March. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
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Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.11% lower at a price of 3911.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 10 points lower for a 0.03% loss at a price of 31,375.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.06% lower at a price of 13,687.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.4% lower.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.3%.
This morning, the Nikkei closed 0.19% higher at a price of 29,562.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.3% lower.
The Euro closed 0.4% higher at $1.2120.
The British Pound closed 0.3% higher at $1.3818.
The Japanese Yen closed 0.5% higher at 104.52 per dollar.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed unchanged at -0.44%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed two basis points lower at 0.46%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed unchanged at 1.16%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.62% higher at $58.24 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.10% higher at $1,833.80 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we already had the release of German Final CPI which came in as expected with a 1% print. At, 12.00 pm we have U.S MBA Mortgage Applications and this is followed by U.S CPI at 1.30 pm. Next, we have Wholesale Inventories at 3.00 pm. Finally, at 7.00 pm we have a speech from Fed Chairman Powell and the Monthly Budget Statement.
March S&P 500
Thankfully, the S&P was trading around my latest 3909 sell level shortly after I posted yesterday morning, thus giving anyone who was not short a chance to sell the market before we traded lower to my 3899 T/P level. Overnight the S&P traded higher to my second sell range as emailed earlier to my Platinum Members and I am now short here at 3920. I will add to this trade on any further move higher to 3936 with a now 3945 ‘’Closing Stop’’. My T/P level on this position will be 3909. I will also move my buy level higher to 3876/3891 with a 3869 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 3901. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
The Euro has continued to build value above last week’s 1.1950 low print. We have short-term resistance at 1.2140, with a break and close above signalling a further move higher to 1.2280/1.2340. I am still flat the Euro and I will now raise my buy level to 1.2040/1.2090 with a 1.1995 stop.
March Dollar Index
I am still flat as the Dollar never came close to yesterday’s sell range. I will now lower my sell level to 90.55/91.05 with a lower 91.55 stop.
March DAX
The DAX again traded sideways close to all-time highs and I am still flat. I still do not trust the price action in the DAX. Having said that I do not want to chase the market lower and I will again leave my 14205/14285 sell range unchanged with the same 14355 stop. I still do not want to be long the DAX at this time.
March FTSE
Yesterday was one of the quietest trading sessions of the year so far with the FTSE again trading in a narrow 50 point range. I am still flat and I will now raise my buy level slightly to 6410/6460 with a higher 6375 stop.
Dow Rolling Contract
The euphoria continues with even Wall Street names who were bearish now turning bullish. This is what is needed for the reversal that I am looking for. As you know it takes courage and discipline to be on the opposite side of the bullish crowd but in my opinion, this is what is necessary to win. The bullish price action in the Small Cap Russell 2000 is insane with the Reddit Folks behind this aggressive move higher since the recent lows in October. The reversal will be sharp and the recent move higher in all the US Indices to new highs has not changed my conviction for a coming reversal. As I am now short both the S&P and NASDAQ, I will now raise my Dow sell level to 31600/31780 with a 31935 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I am not going to chase the Dow higher and I will leave my 30950/31100 buy level unchanged with the same 30825 stop.
March NASDAQ
In the last few minutes, the NASDAQ has rallied to my 13760 sell level. I will add to this trade on any further move higher to 13850 while at the same raising my stop to 13925. I will leave my T/P level unchanged at 12690 and if any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
March Bund
The coming reversal in equity markets will see a large bounce in Bond Markets. I am still flat the Bund and I will now raise my buy level to 175.45/175.95 while leaving my stop unchanged at 174.95.
Gold Rolling Contract
No Change. I am still a buyer from 1800/1815 with the same 1789 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
Silver just missed my buy level before rallying and I am still flat. I will now raise my buy level slightly to 26.45/26.95 with a higher 25.95 stop.
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