The first trading day of 2021 saw U.S. Equity Markets close lower, led by the S&P which fell 1.48% after a volatile trading session in which the VIX surged 26% before a late rally saw the VIX close higher by 18% at 26.97. There are still some concerns over the rollout of the COVID-19 vaccines. Operation Warp Speed Chief Adviser Moncef Slaoui said the pace of Coronavirus inoculations needs to increase, suggesting the Federal Government is considering two half-doses of Moderna’s vaccine to treat more people. These are also worries that stocks may be overextended, with valuations stretched. Billionaire investor Carl Icahn highlighted these fears yesterday, saying “wild rallies” always end with a painful correction. But it was not all negatives… U.S. Manufacturing PMI for December rose at the quickest pace in more than six years, highlighting ongoing strength in the underlying economy. Earlier European Indices closed higher. Markit Euro-Zone’s final manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (“PMI”) data for December were revised slightly below the preliminary reading, but still grew at the fastest rate in over two and a half years. But COVID-19 restrictions across the continent are tightening. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said the region should expect increased Coronavirus related social-distancing restrictions as cases continue to rise. German Health Minister Jens Spahn said the country is likely to extend Coronavirus restrictions beyond January 10 as infection numbers remain high. Late in the day, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced a new national lockdown. Elsewhere, Oil closed 2.51% lower after OPEC could not reach an agreement on February crude production, while Gold surged 2.71% after Chicago Federal Reserve President Charles Evans said that he is in favour of letting inflation run as high as 2.5%, boosting inflation hedges.
To mark my 2225th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made lost 35 points yesterday and is now ahead by 75 points for January, having finished December with a gain of 2273 points, 2025 points in November, 2779 points in October, 3042 points in September, 2383 points in August, 3128 points in July, 2580 points in June, 2456 points in May, 4773 points in April, and an incredible 9264 points in March. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
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Equities
The S&P 500 closed 1.48% lower at a price of 3700.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 382 points lower for a 1.25% loss at a price of 30,223.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 1.50% lower at a price of 12694.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.7% higher.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.2%.
This morning the Nikkei closed 0.37% lower at a price of 27,158.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.1% higher.
The Euro closed 0.2% higher at $1.2255.
The British Pound fell 0.4% to close at $1.3605.
The Japanese Yen closed 0.3% higher at 102.97 per dollar.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed two basis points lower at -0.59%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed one basis point lower at 0.18%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed unchanged at 0.92%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 2.51% lower at $46.89 a barrel.
Gold closed 2.71% higher at $1,923.20 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we already had the release of German Retail Sales which rose 1.9% versus -2% expected. At 8.55 am we have German Unemployment and this is followed Euro-Zone Money Supply at 9.00 am. Finally, at 3.00 pm we have U.S ISM Manufacturing PMI.
March S&P 500
Shortly after I posted yesterday morning the S&P made a new all-time high at 3772 before falling 120 Handles after the U.S Markets opened in what turned out to be a wild first trading session of 2021. Initially my S&P plan worked well with the market hitting my 3771 sell level before trading lower to my revised 3762 T/P level. This aggressive move lower saw the S&P hit my 3710 average buy level before stopping me out of this trade a few minutes later at 3689 and I am still flat. The S&P has initial support from 3645/3660 where I will be a small buyer with a 3633 stop. The S&P has strong support from 3610/3625 where I will be an aggressive buyer with a 3598 ‘’Closing Stop’’. We have short-term resistance from 3718/3733 where I will be a small seller with a 3745 tight stop.
EUR/USD
My Euro plan worked well with the market trading higher to my 1.2300 sell level before trading lower to my 1.2260 T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a seller from 1.2305/1.2345 with a 1.2381 stop. Meanwhile, I will leave my 1.2105/1.2155 buy level unchanged with the same 1.2065 stop.
March Dollar Index
No Change as I am still long at a price of 89.80 with the same 90.05 T/P level. I will continue to add to this trade at 89.30 while leaving my stop unchanged at 88.75. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
March DAX
The DAX just missed my 13950 sell level before the market got slammed for 300 points and I am still flat as thankfully we had no buy levels yesterday. Today I will lower my sell level slightly to 13870/13950 with a lower 14025 stop. I still do not want to be long the DAX at this time.
March FTSE
My FTSE plan worked well with the market trading higher to my 6595 sell level before trading lower to my 6540 T/P level and I am now flat. I will continue to be a buyer from 6410/6460 with the same 6365 stop. The FTSE has resistance from 6600/6640 where I will be a seller with a 6681 stop.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow fell shy of my 30880 sell level before falling 900 points yesterday. Subsequently we rallied into the close and that rally is continuing this morning with the market trading at 30300 as I go to press. The Dow has support from 29810/30010 where I will be a small buyer with a 29655 tight stop.
March NASDAQ
The NASDAQ fell shy of my 12990 sell level by 35 points before trading to a low of 12520 and I am still flat. We have short-term support from 12520/12600 where I will be a buyer with a tight 12445 stop. Despite yesterday’s aggressive sell level I no longer want to be short the NASDAQ at this time.
March BUND
No Change as I am still a seller from 178.45/178.85 with the same 179.25 stop. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 178.10.
Gold Rolling Contract
I am still flat and today I will now raise my sell level to 1958/1970 with a higher 1981 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change as I am still a buyer from 26.20/26.80 with the same 25.75 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 27.15.
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