U.S. Indexes were choppy on Monday while energy prices and Gold were bid with T-notes bear flattening and the U.S. Dollar firmer in response to the US/Iran conflict. Over the weekend, the US struck Iran, killing the Supreme Leader Khamenei, with Iran responding by hitting US bases across the Middle East, but also by closing the Strait of Hormuz and threatening that ships that cross the Strait will be fired upon. The initial reaction saw stocks open lower while T-notes caught a bid, with energy prices surging. Oil remained bid but saw slight selling around the closing bell as Secretary of State Rubio said that Treasury Secretary Bessent and Energy Secretary Wright will announce measures to mitigate oil costs on Tuesday. Natural Gas rocketed on the geopolitical tensions but surged even further after QatarEnergy announced it is to stop the production of LNG, due to military attacks on operating facilities in Ras Laffan industrial city and Mesaieed industrial city. T-notes reversed the upside throughout the session as higher energy prices bolstered inflationary concerns. Stocks also clawed back the losses to ultimately close mixed, with the Russell rallying, while other US indices were flat. In FX, the Dollar was bid to the detriment of peers while other havens lacked appeal (JPY on loose fiscal policy, while SNB said today its readiness to intervene in FX is currently higher). Gold remained firmer but settled well off its earlier highs, while Silver pared its initial gains. Elsewhere, US data saw a strong ISM Manufacturing PMI report, albeit the prices paid component surged higher. Overall, the headline ISM rose to 52.4 in February, down from January’s 52.6 and above the expected decline to 51.8. The headline was within the analyst forecast range of 50.0 to 53.2. The headline was primarily bolstered by a surge in the prices paid component, which rose to 70.5 from 59 in January, marking the highest level since June 2022. Backlog of orders rose 5 points to 56.6, the highest read since May 2022. Meanwhile, Employment rose to 48.8 from 48.1. Meanwhile, New Orders fell to 55.8 from 57.1, while Production fell to 53.5 from 55.9%. The report notes that three demand indicators are in expansion. Regarding the chunky move higher in prices, all of the six largest manufacturing indices reported price increases in February “The Prices Index reading continues to be driven by increases in steel and aluminium prices that impact the entire value chain, as well as tariffs applied to many imported goods”. Meanwhile, Pantheon Macroeconomics highlight the jump in Prices Paid is due to the near 30% run-up in oil prices since the start of the year. The desk adds that “The prices received components of the other major manufacturing surveys continue to paint a much more reassuring picture of core goods inflation, suggesting a significant easing in price pressures by around the middle of this year as tariff pass-through continues to fade”. In the wake of the report, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate for Q1 ’26 was unchanged at 3.0%. Elsewhere, Oil closed higher by 6% ad Gold by 1%. However, both Commodities closed well below intra-day highs.
To mark my 3325th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 1065 points yesterday and is now ahead by 1455 points for March having closed February with a strong gain of 5482 points after ending January with a gain of 4757 points, having closed December with a gain of 2599 points, after ending the month of November with a gain of 4542 points, after ending October with a nice gain of 5110 points after closing September with a gain of 3774 points while ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.04% higher at a price of 6881.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 73 points lower for a 0.15% loss at a price of 48,904.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.13% higher at a price of 24,992.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 1.65% lower.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 1.2% lower.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 1.35% lower at a price of 58,057.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.98% higher.
The Euro closed 0.96% lower at $1.1698.
The British Pound closed 0.48% lower at $1.3413.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.75% closing at $157.25.
Bonds
U.K.’s 10-Year Gilt closed 8 basis points higher at 4.31%.
Germany’s 10-Year Bund Yield closed 7 basis points higher at 2.72%
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 8 basis points higher at 4.05%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 6.04% higher at $71.07 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.93% higher at $5327.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have Euro-Zone CPI at 10.00 am. The only other news of note are speeches from Fed Members Williams at 2.55 pm and Kashkari at 4.45 pm.
Cash S&P 500
The S&P closed Monday essentially flat, up 0.04%. To no surprise, to readers of this Daily Commentary, the S&P 500 gapped lower and tested the put wall at 6,800. Implied volatility was crushed as ‘’PUT’’ positions at that level were likely closed out, and stocks rebounded. Basically, it played out just as described in Monday’s write-up. The interesting part is that the VIX still rose to 21.5 on the day, after peaking around 25 earlier in the session. Looking at the volatility smile, the SPY March 20 implied volatility shifted higher overall. With little net price change, most of the move reflected an upward shift in implied volatility across the curve. Notably, ’’ PUT’’ skew steepened while ‘’Call’’ skew flattened. So, volatility did rise on the day, but the sharp decline from the intraday highs helped fuel the gap-down rebound. Meanwhile, the spread between the S&P 500 Dispersion Index and 3-month implied correlation narrowed. Historically, that spread tends to lead the S&P 500. It is difficult to construct a scenario in which implied volatility remains elevated, and correlations rise without the Index eventually moving lower. For now, however, options traders appear comfortable continuing to position around the 6,800 level. It would also be challenging for the S&P if rates and oil prices continue to climb. Higher rates and higher oil prices are not a healthy combination for any economy. The same applies to the Dollar — oil, rates, and the Dollar have tended to move together since 2022. If all three continue to rise, financial conditions will tighten over time, and tighter financial conditions are not supportive of equities. But hey, as long as the options market is willing to hold up the S&P 500, what could possibly go wrong? My S&P plan worked really well. The S&P traded lower to my second buy level at 6775 for a 6790 average long position before rallying to my revised 6928 T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a buyer from 6785/6805 with a higher 6759 ‘Closing Stop’. I still do not want to be short the S&P at this time. If triggered, I will have a T/P level at 6837. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
The rally in the Dollar finally saw the Euro hit my buy range for a now 1.1710 long position. I will continue to look to add to this position on any further move lower to 1.1630 while leaving my 1.1575 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. I will now lower my T/P level to 1.1780. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dollar Index
The Dollar surged on Monday, ending the session with a 1% gain. I am still flat. The Dollar has short-term resistance from 99.40/100.10 where I will be a seller with a 100.65 ‘Closing Stop’. My only interest in buying the Dollar is on a dip lower to 97.00/97.80 with a higher 96.35 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 98.70. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 98.40.
Russell 2000
Late in Monday’s session the Russell hit my initial 2660 sell level. I will add to this position at 2740 while leaving my 2805 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. I will now raise my T/P level to 2620. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
FTSE 100
The FTSE never came close to Monday’s sell range and I am still flat. Today, I will lower my sell level to 10870/10970 with a lower 11045 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 10800. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dow Rolling Contract
Really Frustrating! The Dow missed my 48100 initial buy level by just 8 points before rallying over 800 points off its 48108 low print and I am still flat. My theme of ‘’Nothing Matters’’ shows no sign of ending any time soon. Even a war cannot lead to a sustained sell-off. Just like the S&P having strong support at 6800 so does the Dow at 48200. Today, I will raise my Dow buy level to 47950/48250 with a higher 47695 ‘Closing Stop’. If triggered, I will have a T/P level at 48530. I no longer want to be short the Dow at this time. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash NASDAQ 100
My NDX plan worked well as the market traded lower to my aggressive 24450 buy level before rallying 600 points. This move higher saw my 24680 T/P level triggered and I am still flat. Today, I will again be a buyer on any dip lower to 24350/24600 with a higher 24195 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 24810.
December BUND
The Bund hit a Monday low at 129.50, which was 100 points below its morning high. This move lower saw my revised 129.85 T/P level triggered on Friday’s 130.20 short position and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a seller from 130.15/130.95 with the same 131.65 ‘Closing Stop’. If triggered, I will have a T/P level at 129.65.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold traded all over the map on Monday. The market finally sold off to my revised 5328 T/P level on Monday’s 5370 short position and I am now flat. With Gold continuing to trade outside the top of its Daily Bollinger Band I will continue to be a seller of rallies. Gold has resistance from 5425/5505 where I will be a seller with a higher 5602 ‘Closing Stop’. If triggered, I will have a T/P level at 5345.
Silver Rolling Contract
Silver had a strong reversal of Monday’s high at 96.80. I am still flat as I have no interest in shorting the market or chasing the price of Silver higher. Today, I will leave my 74.50/77.00 buy level unchanged with the same 71.95 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 79.75
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