U.S. Equity Markets were choppy to start the week, finishing yesterday’s trading session mixed, as the Dow closed higher by 0.21% while the NASDAQ 100 fell 0.81%. Markets declined to start the week. Congress is a big driver for markets this week, with planned votes on the $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill and the $3.5 trillion government spending bill. There were multiple Federal Reserve speakers after the central bank’s policy meeting last week. Both New York Fed President John Williams and Governor Lael Brainard said that the data indicates that a tapering of asset purchases is warranted, but that does not mean the Fed will hike rates anytime soon. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans downplayed inflation fears, saying that long-term inflation is still muted. Evans added that he sees the first rate hike coming in 2023. European Markets closed higher. Germany’s Social Democrats were predicted to beat outgoing Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union in Sunday’s general election, potentially shaking up regional politics. The British government was said to be readying emergency measures to alleviate the country’s fuel shortage, including having the military drive gas tankers into the country. The International Atomic Energy Agency said Iran would not allow inspectors access to a nuclear facility, violating the terms of their inspection agreement. In Asia, China’s government is said to be prepared to stem any financial fallout if real estate developer Evergrande defaults on its debt, but it wants to highlight the importance of corporate discipline. The Japanese Yen continued to weaken, boosting the outlook for Japanese exporters after the Federal Reserve’s recent admission it could soon begin tapering asset purchases. South Korea’s Financial Services Commission Chairman Koh Seung-beom said the government would unveil new measures next month to help curb household leverage. Taiwan’s industrial production data for August was stronger than anticipated and July’s numbers were revised higher, as semiconductor-related demand remained solid. Elsewhere, Oil rose 2% along with natural gas on concerns over a supply shortage, while Bitcoin gained 1.61% on little news.
To mark my 2400th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 159 points yesterday and is now ahead by 2788 points for September, having closed August with a gain of 1543 points, and 996 points in July. The Platinum Service made 1366 points in June, 1439 points in May, 1244 points in April, having ended March with an impressive gain of 3769 points, 3286 points in February, 2077 points in January, and 2273 points last December. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
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Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.28% lower at a price of 4443.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 71 points higher for a 0.21% gain at a price of 34,869.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.81% lower at a price of 15,204.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.6% higher.
This morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.1%.
This morning, the Nikkei closed 0.15% lower at a price of 30,196
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.1% higher.
The Euro closed 0.2% lower at $1.1700.
The British Pound closed 0.3% higher at 1.3705.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.5%, closing at $111.20.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed three basis points higher at -0.21%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed four basis points higher at 0.96%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed seven basis points higher at 1.52%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1.95% higher at $75.45 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.15% lower at $1,745.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we already had the release of German October GFK Consumer Confidence which rose 0.3 versus -1.8 expected. At 1.00 pm we have a speech from ECB President Lagarde and this is followed by U.S. Trade Balance and Wholesale Inventories at 1.30 pm. At 2.00 pm we have the Housing Price Index. Finally, at 3.00 pm we have Consumer Confidence, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index and Fed Chair Powell’s Testimony to Congress on the Economy and Monetary Policy.
September S&P 500
My S&P plan worked well with the market trading lower to my 4425 buy level before rallying to my 4437 T/P level and I am now flat. I will now lower my sell level to 4460/4475 with a lower 4491 ‘’Closing Stop’’. We have strong support from 4390/4405 where I will be a buyer with a 4379 ‘’Closing Stop’’. A break and close below 4380 will be significant.
EUR/USD
My Euro plan worked well with the market trading lower to my 1.1690 buy level before rallying to my 1.1710 revised T/P level and I am now flat. This morning, the Euro is trading lower at 1.1685. The Euro has strong support from 1.1580/1.1630 where I will be an aggressive buyer with a 1.1535 tight stop.
December Dollar Index
I am still flat. I will now raise my sell level again to 93.75/94.15 with a tight 94.41 stop.
December DAX
The DAX never came close to yesterday’s sell range before selling off after the sell-off in the Bund. The DAX has strong support from 15340/15420 where I will be an aggressive buyer with a 15275 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 15470.
December FTSE
After the FTSE traded lower to my 7020 buy level I emailed my Platinum Members to exit any long position at 7038 and I am now flat. The FTSE has support from 6930/6980 where I will again be a buyer with a 6885 stop. I still do not want to be short the FTSE at this time.
Dow Rolling Contract
No Change. I am still a seller on any further rally to 35120/35270 with the same 35405 ‘’Closing Stop’’. The Dow has short-term support from 34560/34710 where I will be a buyer with a 34445 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
September NASDAQ
This morning, the NASDAQ is trading 300 points lower from where I marked prices 24 hours ago. The main reason for this sell-off is the rise in 10 Year Treasuries to 1.53%. Thankfully we had no buy level in the market yesterday and are still flat. I will now lower my sell level to 15200/15280 with a lower 15375 ‘’Closing Stop’’. Building value and settling below 15075 is bearish and will see me lower my sell level. I still do not want to be long the NASDAQ at this time.
September BUND
My Bund plan did not work well. The Bund hit my second buy level at 170.10 for a 170.35 average long position before stopping me out of this position this morning at 169.75 and I am now flat. The Bund has support from 168.70/169.20 where I will again be a buyer with a 168.35 tight stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 169.55.
Gold Rolling Contract
My Gold plan worked well with the market hitting my 1745 buy level before rallying $10, enabling me to cover this position at my revised 1749.50 T/P level and I am now flat. Despite the 10% DSI reading, Gold continues to trade heavy. We have strong support from 1711/1726 where I will be an aggressive buyer with a 1699 Stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
After Silver traded lower to my 22.40 buy level, we rallied to my revised 22.56 T/P level and I am now flat. Silver is oversold, has strong support from 21.50/22.10 where I will be an aggressive buyer with a 20.95 stop.
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