U.S. Equity Markets eventually closed higher following a volatile trading session. The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey for February showed that factory activity declined for the first time since May 2020. The production index recorded a modest contraction in output, falling from 0.2 in January to -2.8 this month. January’s Durable Goods’ Orders fell 4.5% month over month, largely reversing December gains and marking the biggest decline since April 2020. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNOW Forecast for first-Quarter Gross Domestic Product (“GDP”) growth rose from 2.5% to 2.7% on upward revisions to private investment and personal consumption growth. This week holds the bulk of retail earnings with the likes of Costco Wholesale (COST), Target (TGT), Lowe’s (LOW), Best Buy (BBY), Dollar Tree (DLTR), Ross Stores (ROST), Macy’s (M), and more. Results should provide investors with an updated look at consumer spending power and how inflation affected the 2022 holiday spending season. Fed Governor Philip Jefferson defended the 2% inflation target and refuted any claims that the central bank was considering altering the long-accepted economic target. Within the S&P 500 Index, seven of the 11 sectors finished higher. European Markets closed higher. British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen struck a deal today regarding new arrangements for Northern Ireland, a major boost for trade and continued relations. ECB President Christine Lagarde reiterated it’s very likely to move forward with a 50-basis-point rate hike in March to cool inflation growth, while Council member Ignazio Visco said it will raise interest rates as much as necessary to bring inflation back to its 2% target. Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence missed expectations for February, as consumers’ concerns over inflation and a recession are still persistent. In Asia, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida called on domestic companies to raise employees’ wages, potentially stoking inflation and boosting the need for future interest rate hikes. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the administration has acquired information showing China is preparing to provide “lethal support” for Russia’s war in Ukraine. Bank of Korea Governor Rhee Chang-yong said the central bank stands ready to act if Federal Reserve rate hikes were to weigh on the Won’s value and boost inflation. Elsewhere, Oil fell 0.76% while Gold rose 0.39%.
To mark my 2725th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 330 points yesterday and is now ahead by 2904 points for February after closing January with a gain of 4687 points, while finishing December with a gain of 2054 points. November ended with a gain of 4789 points, while finishing October with a record gain of 9619 points, making 6660 points in September, after closing August with a gain of 2228 points, having made 2660 points in July, following a gain of 3371 points in June. The Service made 3651 points in May, after making 762 points in April, following a gain of 5883 points in March. The Platinum Service made an impressive 5324 points in February, after ending January with a gain of 3878 points, more than making up for December’s 932 points loss. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.31% higher at a price of 3982
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 72 points higher for a 0.22% gain at a price of 32,889.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.74% higher at a price of 12,057.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 1.14% higher.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific fell 0.28%.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 0.11% lower at a price of 27,423.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.5% lower.
The Euro closed 0.4% higher at $1.0606.
The British Pound closed 0.8% higher at 1.2050.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.2% closing at $136.20.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 5 basis points higher at 2.58%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 5 basis points higher at 3.70%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 1 basis points higher at 3.96%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.76% lower at $75.73 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.39% higher at $1817.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have German Import Price Index at 7.00 am. This is followed by three speeches from Bank of England Members: Cunliffe 10.15 am, Pill 12.15 pm and Mann at 12.30 pm. Next, we have U.S. Wholesale Inventories and the Trade Balance at 1.30 pm. At 2.00 pm we have the Housing Price Index, followed by the Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index at 2.45 pm. Finally, we have Consumer Confidence and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index at 3.00 pm.
Cash S&P 500
Those looking for a confirmed low yesterday were left frustrated. The S&P hit a high at 4016 which was the 5MA before selling off to test the 50 Day Moving Average (3979) with a 3974 low print before having a small rally into the close. Yesterday’s initial move higher saw my 3991 T/P level executed on Friday’s 3974 average long position. I am now flat. Apart from last Tuesday, February has been a nice profitable month for the Platinum Service. As long as the S&P does not break Friday’s 3943 low, I will continue to be a buyer of dips. The charts keep pointing to an inverse on the S&P with a target level of 4100. I know none of this is confirmed and is speculative. However, when the $NYSI Weekly reading is released later today it should show a reading that is maximum oversold. If the S&P does crack the 200 Day MA (3941) the next strong support is the 100 MA at 3914. In my opinion downside from here is limited given the seasonal strength into March and April. I will continue to be an aggressive buyer from 3920/3945 with no stop or T/P level for now if triggered. Short-term the S&P has support from 3957/3972 where I will again be a buyer with a 3949 tight ‘’Closing Stop’’.
EUR/USD
No Change. I am still long the Euro at an average rate of 1.0635. I will leave my 1.0545 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged while lowering my T/P level on this position to 1.0670. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
March Dollar Index
The Dollar sold off to my 104.60 T/P level on Friday’s short 105.00 position and I am now flat. Given how overbought the Dollar is I will continue to be a small seller on rallies. The Dollar has resistance from 105.30/106.00 where I will be a seller with a 106.55 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Cash DAX
It is just not worth trying to short the DAX unless we break and close below 15,000. Every back test is aggressively bought as we saw again yesterday with the DAX trading over 200 points higher from I where I marked prices early yesterday morning. The latest move higher saw the whole of my sell range executed for a 15400 average short position. The DAX did pull-back after the American Indexes slid enabling me to cover this position at my revised 15395 T/P level as emailed to my Platinum Members and I am now flat. The DAX has support from 15180/15280. I will move my buy level to this area with a higher 15095 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Cash FTSE
The FTSE has struggled for the past week, finding the 8000/8100 strong resistance. However, the market did hit my 7935 T/P level on last week’s 7900 long position, and I am still flat. After exiting this position the market traded in a narrow range. We have strong support from 7810/7870 where I will again be a buyer with a 7765 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the FTSE at this time.
Dow Rolling Contract
Frustratingly, the Dow missed my 33200 sell level by just eight points before falling over 350 points. I am still flat. The Dow has short-term support from 32300/32550 where I will be a buyer with a 31995 ‘’Closing Stop’’. The 200 Day Moving Average comes in at 32350 and I would expect a decent rally off any initial test. The Dow is the most cyclical of all the major averages. The uptrend line from last October’s lows is under tremendous pressure. This is one of the main reasons why I have had no buy level in the Dow for the last few sessions. The Equity Risk Premium offers no mathematical reason to be long the Dow right now (apart from a quick trade) and is a no brainer when it comes to comparing a six-month T-Bill Yield, at 5.08% to the 5.5% earnings yield provided by the Dow. I will continue to be a small seller on any further rally to 33300/33550 with a 33705 tight ‘’Fixed Stop’’.
Cash NASDAQ 100
The NDX rallied as expected, hitting my 12060 T/P level on Friday’s 11980 long position and I am now flat. Given how oversold the NDX is , I am more comfortable in buying tech stocks over the Dow. The NDX has support from 11830/11980 where I will again be a buyer with the same 11695 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
March BUND
It took a while but finally the Bund traded lower to my 133.40 buy level. I am still long and I will continue to look to add to this position at 132.60 with the same 131.95 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will now lower my T/P level to 133.80. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
No Change. I am still flat, patiently waiting for Gold to hit my buy range. Yesterday’s low was 1807 before the market had a small $10 rally into the New York close. I will continue to be a small buyer 1790/1805 with the same 1779 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change. Silver has traded sideways since we saw the market fall 3%,10 days ago. I am still convinced that it is only a matter of time before Silver takes out the key 24.00/25.00 resistance area. Remember in May 2011, Silver was trading above $50. I am still long at an average rate of 23.10 with the same no stop policy. I will leave my T/P level unchanged at 23.50. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Recent Comments