Equity Markets closed lower in both the U.S and Euro-Zone with Financial Stocks leading the decline after Buzzfeed reported suspicious activity in both Deutsche Bank and JP Morgan. Yesterday was the worst day for European Indices since March, led by the DAX which closed almost 5% lower. On top of this the weekly close in both the S&P and Dow below their respective 50-Day Moving Average triggered a sell signal for commodity trading advisers (“CTAs”). This triggered an algo sell trigger. The TikTok-Oracle-Walmart deal was also in headlines, after President Donald Trump reportedly said he may renege on approval of the acquisition. The new Supreme Court vacancy raised some concerns in the market, as the Congressional fight over the vacancy threatened to further cloud the federal spending outlook. It also raised uncertainty around the upcoming Affordable Care Act decision, taking some of the wind out of health care’s sails. The New York Federal Reserve released its Monthly Spending Report, showing that survey respondents became more pessimistic about job prospects in August. The Dow was down over 3.25% before a late rally cut these losses in half. The European Central Bank was said to be considering transferring resources from its pandemic-related programme to other asset purchase schemes to further support the economy. Germany’s Bundesbank warned the economic recovery could slow throughout the rest of the year. British Health Secretary Matthew Hancock cautioned the country could bring back national lockdowns unless more was done to contain the recent resurgence in Coronavirus infections. Italians headed to the polls for regional voting in what could be seen as a referendum on the current government ahead of the general election in 2023. Elsewhere, the Dollar rallied 1% leading to a 2.39% fall in Gold, while Oil fell 3.6% on supply worries as Libya restarted crude production.
To mark my 2150th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it lost 150 points yesterday and is now ahead by 1546 points for September, having made 2383 points in August, 3128 points in July, 2580 points in June, 2456 points in May, 4773 points in April, an incredible 9264 points in March, 2223 points in February and 2142 points in January. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 1.16% lower at a price of 3281.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 509 points lower for a 1.84% loss at a price of 27,147.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.4% higher at a price of 10,980.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 4% lower.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 1.7%%.
This morning the Nikkei was closed for the Autumn Equinox Day
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.8% higher.
The Euro closed 1% lower at $1.1742.
The British Pound closed 1.1% lower at $1.2805.
The Japanese Yen closed unchanged at 104.42 per dollar.
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries closed three basis points lower at 0.66%.
Germany’s 10-year yield closed three basis points lower at -0.52%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed two basis points lower at 0.16%.
Commodities
The Bloomberg Commodity Index fell 1.2%.
West Texas Intermediate closed 3.6% lower at $39.50 a barrel.
Gold closed 2.4% lower at $1902.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have the UK CBI Industrial Trends Survey at 10.00 am and this is followed at 1.00 pm by a virtual speech from ECB Member Panetta. At 3.00 pm we have Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence along with U.S Existing Home Sales and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index. Finally, at 3.30 pm Fed Chairman Jerome Powell testifies before Congress on Monetary Policy.
December S&P 500
Just as I posted yesterday morning the S&P got slammed trading lower to my 3273 buy level before quickly stopping me out of this position at 3259. Subsequently the S&P traded lower to my second aggressive buy level at 3225 before having a strong rally into its 3275 close. This move higher enabled me to cover this long position at my 3250 T/P level and I am now flat. The mild move in the VIX was a sign that it was only weak hands who were stopped out of their long positions and this was confirmed by the 60 Handle rally into the close. The Cash S&P has left a large ‘’Open Gap’’ from Friday’s Chicago close at 3319 to yesterday’s 3285 intra-day high. This Gap will attract buyers while the 50 Day Moving Average 3335 for the December Contract will also offer strong resistance. I will now lower my sell level to 3320/3336 with the same 3349 stop. My only interest in buying the S&P is on a further drop to 3217/3237 with a 3199 stop. The S&P has further support from 3165/3185 and I will be an aggressive buyer in this area with a 3153 stop. Remember a break and close below 3170 is the first signal of a move to 2800/2900.
EUR/USD
The Euro got hit hard yesterday, trading the whole of my buy range for a now 1.1770 average long position. So far the 50 Day MA at 1.1745 is holding the decline but a break and close below here will be the first signal of a move lower to the 1.1400/1.1500 support area. I will now lower my T/P level on this long position to 1.1805. I will also raise my stop on this position to 1.1715.
December Dollar Index
The Dollar never came close to my buy level ending the day with a near 1% gain and I am still flat. I will now raise my buy level to 92.60/93.10 with a higher 92.25 stop.
December DAX
As all five of my Indices hit at the same time shortly after I posted yesterday morning, I waited to buy until the bottom of my buy range (12750) was hit before buying. I was quickly stopped out of this position at 12695. Subsequently I emailed my Platinum Members to buy the DAX again at 12520 before the market rallied to my 12650 T/P level and I am now flat. The DAX is now oversold having fallen over 650 points since I posted yesterday morning. We have near-term support from 12390/13490 where I will again look to buy with a 12335 tight stop.
December FTSE
The FTSE also traded the whole of my buy range for a now 5805 average long position. I will leave my stop unchanged at 5745 while lowering my T/P level to 5840
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow gapped lower at yesterday’s open, plunging through its 50 Day Moving Average (27493) and declining 942 points intra-day before a late rally cut the loss to 509 points. The Dow was in free-fall when I posted and after buying the market at 27210, I was stopped out of this position at 26985. This is why I prefer to trade in small size with closing stops only as we rallied to finish the day at a price of 27147, before rallying overnight to a high print at 27290. The Dow has strong support from 26700/26880 where I will again look to buy the market with a 26585 stop.
December NASDAQ
My NASDAQ plan worked well with the market trading the whole of my range for a 10780 long position before rallying to my 10880 T/P level with an overnight high of 11045 and I am now flat. The NASDAQ is severely oversold and is noticeable that the market was able to close in positive territory. As long as the NASDAQ does not break and close below 10550 then the market is still bullish. However, a break and close below 10550 signals 9900 and lower. Today. I will be a buyer from 10650/10850 with the same 10495 wider stop as in yesterday’s commentary. I still do not want to be short the NASDAQ at this time.
December BUND
I am still flat the BUND and I will now raise my buy level to 173.65/174.05 with a lower 173.15 stop.
Gold Rolling Contract
With Silver falling over 11% yesterday, Gold did well to only fall 3% as weak longs were again stopped out of the precious metals. I bought Gold at 1922 before getting stopped out of this position at 1908. We made a low at 1978 before bouncing to sit at 1905 this morning. Gold has strong support from 1865/1885 where I will again be a buyer with a 1853 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1901.
Silver Rolling Contract
As mentioned above, Silver got slammed yesterday. At least I had a tight stop at 25.45 after buying the market at an average rate of 26.15 and I am still flat. This morning Silver is trading at 24.07. We have support from 22.50/23.50 where I will again be a buyer with a 21.95 tight stop.
Recent Comments