U.S. Indexes saw choppy trade on Monday as geopolitical headlines dominated price action, with stocks ultimately finishing mixed by the close. The key development came late in the session after President Trump announced he had called off a planned attack on Iran following requests from Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar. The Truth Social post sent equities and Treasuries higher while crude prices sharply reversed lower, unwinding much of the afternoon strength. Trump said Gulf allies had urged the US to delay military action as “serious negotiations” are now underway and expressed confidence that a deal acceptable to the US could still be reached, including guarantees preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. Nonetheless, Trump added that officials remain prepared for a large-scale assault at a moment’s notice should negotiations fail, keeping geopolitical uncertainty elevated. In FX, Sterling outperformed and pared some of the politically driven weakness seen recently after Bloomberg reported that Greater Manchester Mayor Burnham — a potential successor to PM Starmer — had fully ruled out changing Chancellor Reeves’ fiscal rules if he were to become Prime Minister. Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen and Dollar lagged in volatile trade, with much of the Dollar weakness emerging following Trump’s post. Gold and Silver prices were firmer amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, while the late decline in the Dollar also offered support to precious metals. The US NAHB housing market index rose to 37 from 34, and above the expected 35. In the details, all three subcomponents rose three points with current sales conditions at 40 (prev. 37), sales expectations in the next six months at 45 (prev. 42), and traffic of prospective buyers printing 25 (prev. 22). Overall, Oxford Economics notes the NAHB homebuilder sentiment index improved in May but remains at a level consistent with weak housing market activity. Homebuilders became less pessimistic about home sales six months from now, but OxEco thinks that builders will need to work off more of their unsold inventory before we see a notable pickup in single-family housing starts. Elsewhere, Oil closed higher by 4% while Gold was flat.
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