U.S. Indexes saw choppy trade on Monday as geopolitical headlines dominated price action, with stocks ultimately finishing mixed by the close. The key development came late in the session after President Trump announced he had called off a planned attack on Iran following requests from Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar. The Truth Social post sent equities and Treasuries higher while crude prices sharply reversed lower, unwinding much of the afternoon strength. Trump said Gulf allies had urged the US to delay military action as “serious negotiations” are now underway and expressed confidence that a deal acceptable to the US could still be reached, including guarantees preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. Nonetheless, Trump added that officials remain prepared for a large-scale assault at a moment’s notice should negotiations fail, keeping geopolitical uncertainty elevated. In FX, Sterling outperformed and pared some of the politically driven weakness seen recently after Bloomberg reported that Greater Manchester Mayor Burnham — a potential successor to PM Starmer — had fully ruled out changing Chancellor Reeves’ fiscal rules if he were to become Prime Minister. Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen and Dollar lagged in volatile trade, with much of the Dollar weakness emerging following Trump’s post. Gold and Silver prices were firmer amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, while the late decline in the Dollar also offered support to precious metals. The US NAHB housing market index rose to 37 from 34, and above the expected 35. In the details, all three subcomponents rose three points with current sales conditions at 40 (prev. 37), sales expectations in the next six months at 45 (prev. 42), and traffic of prospective buyers printing 25 (prev. 22). Overall, Oxford Economics notes the NAHB homebuilder sentiment index improved in May but remains at a level consistent with weak housing market activity. Homebuilders became less pessimistic about home sales six months from now, but OxEco thinks that builders will need to work off more of their unsold inventory before we see a notable pickup in single-family housing starts. Elsewhere, Oil closed higher by 4% while Gold was flat.
To mark my 3375th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 470 points yesterday and is now ahead by 1735 points for May having ended April with a gain of 1730 points, after ending March with a massive gain of 9002 points, having closed February with a strong gain of 5482 points after ending January with a gain of 4757 points, having closed December with a gain of 2599 points, after ending the month of November with a gain of 4542 points, after ending October with a nice gain of 5110 points after closing September with a gain of 3774 points while ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.16% lower at a price of 7399.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 127 points higher for a 0.26% gain at a price of 49,653.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.43% lower at a price of 28,999.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.38% higher.
This Morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.3% lower.
This Morning, the Nikkei closed 0.63% lower at a price of 60,434.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.15% lower.
The Euro closed 0.12% higher at $1.1635.
The British Pound closed 0.62% higher at $1.3409.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.18% closing at $159.02.
Bonds
U.K.’s 10-Year Gilt closed 4 basis points lower at 5.14%.
Germany’s 10-Year Bund Yield closed 2 basis points lower at 3.16%
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 1 basis points higher at 4.61%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 3.77% higher at $104.80 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.01% higher at $4540.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we already had the release of U.K. Unemployment Rate which printed 5.0% versus 4.9% expected. Next, we have Euro-Zone Trade Balance at 10.00 am and speeches from the ECB’s Lane at 1.00 pm and the Fed’s Waller at 1.10 pm. At 1.30 pm we have Canadian CPI. Finally, we have Pending Home Sales at 6.00 pm.
Cash S&P 500
Oil looked poised to break out on Monday but could not clear the trendline. At least for now, oil bulls will have to wait and see if the market can gather enough momentum later this week to finally push through. From a fundamental standpoint, there are plenty of reasons for oil to break out, but for some reason, it keeps getting stuck beneath resistance. With the sudden reversal in oil prices, momentum across the broader market shifted as well, with the S&P 500 rallying by nearly 0.7% in the final hour of trading, leaving the Index flat on the day. What is ironic is that the S&P 500 had actually fallen below its 10-day exponential moving average (7376), but support in the Index held, and ultimately that is what matters. Whether the Index can survive today is another question, with roughly $40 billion in Treasury bill settlements scheduled. Certainly, the MOVE Index saw a significant gain today, rising to 86. That is a pretty substantial move over just two days, climbing from 69 to 86. That has helped the ratio of oil volatility to bond market volatility contract somewhat and based on the moves over the past two days, the oil market’s view may now be winning. At this point, the VIX has yet to capitulate, but then again, the equity market has AI, and apparently you need oil for AI anyway. With the market now pricing in a rate hike for 2027 as the inflating curve is now rising – you wonder how long can the S&P hold on to its vertical gains over the past six weeks. Meanwhile real Treasury Yields are at 30-yead highs. For anything sustained higher than where we are right now, you have to really go back to 2003.” The 2008 print sat inside the financial-crisis meltdown. The clean reference takes you to 2000–2002. Bitcoin has fallen over 5% since Friday. I do not know how to value Bitcoin other than as a liquidity gauge, sort of a financial conditions gauge.” If Bitcoin continues to deteriorate, it’s “the best indication we have of the potential tightening liquidity picture and the potential for financial conditions tightening,” and that feeds into equity prices. TBD. The S&P has an ‘Open Gap’ from two weeks ago from 7257/7294. I will use any tag of the gap to close my 7097 average short position and reassess if triggered. As I go to post Oil is trading above $107 and 10-Year Treasuries at 4.61% driving the S&P 20 Handles lower from last night’s Chicago close at 7379. It will be interesting to see any follow-through when the Cash Markets open this afternoon. If this view changes I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
I am still long the Euro from Friday at 1.1620 with a now lower 1.1680 T/P level. I will add to this position at 1.1540 while leaving my ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged at 1.1475.If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dollar Index
No Change: The Dollar has short-term resistance from 100.00/100.80 where I will be a seller with a tight 101.50 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 99.30. The Dollar has support below from 98.10/98.90 where I will again be a buyer with a 97.55 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 99.60. If any of these views change, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Russell 2000
I am still flat. Today, I will lower my sell level to 2830/2900 with a lower 2965 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 2780. Given how overbought the Russell is trading I still do not want to be long the market at this time.
FTSE 100
My latest 10210 long FTSE position worked well as the market rallied to my 10280 T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a buyer on any dip lower to 10180/10260 with the same 10105 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 10330.
Dow Rolling Contract
It is amazing that despite the NDX, S&P and Russell making one new all-time high almost daily over the past six weeks that the Dow’s all-time high of 50,188 which was made back on February 10. This is the negative divergence that I have been writing about over the past three months. However, if the Dow does surpass this Feb high on a closing basis then my negative divergence will cease. I am still flat the Dow. Today, I will continue to be a buyer of the Dow on any dip lower to 48650/48950 with a higher 48395 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 49280. I still do not want to be short the Dow at this time.
Cash NASDAQ 100
All eyes will be on NVIDIA earnings when it reports after the close tomorrow evening. Nvidia has a market cap above $5.5 trillion which is greater than the total tax revenue taken in the U.S. Government in 2025, which was $5.3 trillion. Nvidia’s dividend is one penny per quarter, which is a yield of less than 0.02% annually. What does it mean when investors price the value of Nvidia’s stock, which pays out virtually nothing, higher than the one-year tax revenue of America with the highest GDP in the world. In my opinion the word mania is too mild a term form what is going on here and is just mind boggling. Any stock that has 57 Buy ratings and just 1 Sell rating is heading for a wreck. One can only imagine how many Dollars have been committed to the long side of tech stocks just because they have been going up which is certainly the dynamic among option traders. The rise in Call Option Trading on the S&P in recent years looks like a tsunami heading towards the rocks. With volume low across the board if everyone decides to exit then prices can crash given the lack of liquidity. TBD. To put the recent rally into context: The NDX rose 28% over 28 trading days for an amazing 1% percent per day. The NDX staged 20 upside Gaps in the 28-trading day rally. I cannot recall a buying panic that persistently intense. My NDX plan worked well as the market rose to my 29210-sell level before trading lower to my revised 28950 T/P level and I am now flat. This morning, the NDX is trading at a price of 28850. We have short-term resistance from 29050/29250 where I will again be a seller with a 29455 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 28730.
December BUND
The Bund never came close to Monday’s buy range and I am still flat. I will not chase the Bund higher as I continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 123.00/123.70 with the same 122.35 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 124.50.
Gold Rolling Contract
I am still flat. Gold has support below from 4350/4450 where I will continue to be a buyer with the same 4245 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 4590 If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Silver Rolling Contract
Incredible two-way volatility in Silver over the past 24 hours. Silver hit an afternoon high at 78.20 before falling 200 points. The initial rally saw my revised 77.40 T/P level triggered on my latest 76.00 long position and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a strong buyer on any further dip lower to 71.30/74.30 with a lower 68.95 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 76.70.
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