U.S. Indexes closed firmer on Wednesday, with outperformance seen in the NASDAQ, as consumer discretionary and technology sectors led the gains. The majority of sectors were green, aside from energy and consumer staples. Energy gave back some of its recent gains while crude prices settled flat. Crude initially rallied overnight amid ongoing geopolitical tensions but ultimately pared with weakness seen on reports that Iran reached out to the CIA to discuss terms to end the conflict. However, this was later denied by Iran, while the US were sceptical of any willingness to off-ramp in the short term anyway. Tensions are still high amid reports from Kan that the Houthis are planning to attack vital targets inside Saudi Arabia, and Saudi Arabia reportedly said it would retaliate if attacked. However, Saudi Arabia said direct intervention in Iran would have dramatic implications for oil prices, but if it escalates, then a reassessment may be necessary. Separate reports noted that if the US and Israel pursue regime change, all regional energy infrastructure will be targeted. Meanwhile, in response to the conflict Aluminium Bahrain and Qater Energy declared force majeure. Lastly, on the subject, Kurdish forces in Iraq have launched a ground military offensive into Iran against the regime, i24News reported. Aside from geopolitics, the focus was on US data and the Fed Beige Book. ADP and the ISM Services PMI beat expectations (more below). While the Fed’s Beige Book reported a slight-moderate increase in economic activity, stable employment levels, and modest price increases. In FX, antipodes rallied amid a positive risk tone with the Australian Dollar supported by strong GDP data and mixed China PMIs. Gold and Silver saw further gains. ISM Services headline jumped to 56.1 in February from 53.8, above the expected 53.5 and also outside the top end of the forecast range, its highest reading since August 2022. Encouragingly, employment rose to 51.8 from 50.3, while the inflationary gauge of prices paid declined to 63.0 from 66.6, and especially welcome after the Manufacturing prices component soared to a high since June 2022. Business activity improved to 59.9 from 57.4, and new orders jumped to 58.6 from 53.1. Regarding survey respondents, the ISM Chair remarked that commentary on trade uncertainty increased, with respondents commenting that tariff impacts have stabilised and are now embedded in supply chain costs. Although there were several comments on tariff uncertainty regarding the SCOTUS decision, there was no alarm regarding supply chain performance, suggesting that services Companies have developed capabilities to routinely address shifts in tariff policies. The February ADP report saw jobs rise by 63k, beating expectations of 50k and up from the prior 11k, which was downwardly revised from 22k. The 63k print is the highest since November 2025. The largest contributor was a 58k gain in education/health services, while professional/business services cut 30k jobs. Service-providing jobs accounted for 47k jobs on net, with the remaining 16k from the goods-producing industry. ADP Chief Economist Dr Richardson said that “We’ve seen an increase in hiring and pay gains remain solid, especially for job-stayers”. “But with hiring concentrated in only a few sectors, our data shows no widespread pay benefit from changing jobs. In fact, the pay premium for switching employers hit a record low in February.” Regarding pay, wages for job stayers rose 4.5%, unchanged from January, while it rose 6.3% for Job changers, down from 6.4% in January. Elsewhere, Oil closed higher by 1% and Gold by 0.7%.
To mark my 3325th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 300 points yesterday and is now ahead by 2301 points for March having closed February with a strong gain of 5482 points after ending January with a gain of 4757 points, having closed December with a gain of 2599 points, after ending the month of November with a gain of 4542 points, after ending October with a nice gain of 5110 points after closing September with a gain of 3774 points while ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.78% higher at a price of 6869.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 238 points higher for a 0.49% gain at a price of 48,739.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 1.51% higher at a price of 25,093.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 1.37% higher.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 1.1% lower.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 3.61% lower at a price of 54,245.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.16% lower.
The Euro closed 0.08% higher at $1.1625.
The British Pound closed 0.05% lower at $1.3350.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.24% closing at $157.13.
Bonds
U.K.’s 10-Year Gilt closed 3 basis points lower at 4.38%.
Germany’s 10-Year Bund Yield closed 2 basis points higher at 2.76%
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 4 basis points higher at 4.09%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.99% higher at $75.30 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.7% higher at $5143.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have German, Euro-Zone and U.K. Construction PMI at 8.30 am, 8.35 am and 9.30 am respectively. Next, we have Euro-Zone Retail Sales at 10.00 am while the ECB will release the Minutes from last month’s meeting at 12.30 pm. This is followed by U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims, Non-Farm Productivity and Unit Labour Costs at 1.30 pm. At 3.00 pm we have Durable Goods Orders and Factory Orders. Finally, we have a speech from ECB President Lagarde at 5.00 pm and a speech from Fed Member Bowman at 1.15 pm.
Cash S&P 500
The S&P closed higher on Wednesday. On the surface, this looked like a typical “volume down, stocks up” type of move. The VIX 1-day closed yesterday above 20 and traded down to around 12, while the VIX Index traded to roughly 20.50. Meanwhile, the VIX 1-day finished today around 17, so it is possible to see another opening move that helps push the market higher. Still, this is a tricky spot for the market given what is happening in Iran, and I would imagine we continue to see implied volatility remain higher than usual. We have seen this pattern repeatedly over time: markets rally as volatility gets crushed and hedges are closed, but once the market runs out of volatility to crush, the rally tends to stall. Right now, daily moves greater than 0.85% will push realised volatility even higher. This probably suggests, for now, that the VIX will have a difficult time falling much further despite Tuesday’s 10% lower close. The S&P hit resistance at its 20 Day Moving Average (6885) before having a small sell-off into the Chicago close. The 50 Day MA is just above current prices at 6905 and should attract selling on any test. Today is also a Treasury settlement day, with about $13.1 billion due to settle. The S&P 500 has risen on only 12 of the last 34 settlement dates, or about 35% of the time. On average, the Index falls by about 0.4% on those days. When it does rise, the gain averages only about the same; however, when it falls, the decline averages roughly 0.85%, resulting in a cumulative drop of about 13%. Non-settlement days are the polar opposite. This does not mean the Index cannot rise today—just that the odds do not favor it especially with both key Moving Averages above. Meanwhile, oil is sitting just below resistance at $78, and a breakout would likely put oil on a path back to the $84 to $87 range, and possibly even higher. The next couple of days will be very important for oil. Today, I will be a small seller from 6915/6940 with a tight 6957 ‘Closing Stop’. The S&P has strong support below from 6800/6820 where I will be a strong buyer with a 6783 tight ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 6892. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 6847. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
I am still long the Euro at an average rate of 1.1670 with the same 1.1695 T/P level. I will leave my ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged at 1.1575. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dollar Index
My 99.60 short Dollar position worked well as the market traded lower to my 98.90 T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a seller from 99.60/100.30 with the same 100.95 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 99.00.
Russell 2000
Frustrating! The Russell just missed Wednesday’s 2550 buy level before rallying 2% into the close. The Russell has resistance from 2690/2760 where I will again be a seller with a 2815 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 2640.
FTSE 100
I am still flat as the FTSE never came close to Tuesday’s buy range. Today, I will now raise my buy level to 10380/10480 with a higher 10295 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 10560. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dow Rolling Contract
I am still flat. This is when it gets tricky given the large out of the blue rally on Wednesday. This will result in a lot of nervous short positions who are caught the wrong way. Today, I will raise my Dow buy level to 48030/48330 with a higher 47795 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 48620. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members. I still do not want to be short the Dow at this time.
Cash NASDAQ 100
My NDX plan worked well as the market traded lower to my 24480-buy level before rallying over 700 points. This move higher saw my 24710 T/P level triggered and I am now flat. We were right to only be buyers of the stock market this week despite all the negative news in the press. This is not how markets work as the whole idea is to frustrate as many traders as possible before the real move lower commences. The NDX has short-term resistance from 25300/25500 where I will be a seller with a 25635 ‘Closing Stop’. The NDX has short-term support from 24550/24750 where I will again be a buyer with a 24395 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 25130. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 24960. If any of these views change, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
December BUND
I am still flat. I will not chase the price of the Bund lower. Today, I will continue to be a seller on any further rally to 129.90/130.60 with a lower 131.15 ‘Closing Stop’. If triggered, I will have a T/P level at 129.30.
Gold Rolling Contract
I am still flat. I will not chase the price of Gold higher given the volatility. Gold has strong support below from 4700/4800 where I will be an aggressive buyer with a 4595 ‘Closing Stop’. If triggered, I will have a T/P level at 4970.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change: Silver has now fallen over 20% from Monday’s high at 96.80. This is a huge move lower catching many long positions in the process. Today, I will continue to be a buyer from 73.50/76.00 with the same 71.95 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 79.35
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