U.S. Equity Markets finished Wednesday higher led by the 0.97% gain in the NASDAQ 100. Markets finished positive following a rather uneventful trading day before the Thanksgiving holiday. Investors were given optimistic news from the Federal Open Market Committee’s November Minutes, showing a vast majority of officials expected rate hikes to slow soon. Markit Purchasing Managers’ Index (“PMI”) indicated easing pricing while near-term consumer inflation expectations dipped. October’s Durable-Goods orders strengthened while Jobless Claims moved higher. Investors are looking toward next week right now. The Thanksgiving holiday presents a limited amount of economic news the rest of the week. Within the S&P 500 Index, 10 of the 11 sectors finished higher. European Markets also closed positive. Markets ended largely higher as PMI data influenced the macro narrative. Investors are anticipating an economic contraction in the fourth quarter. Euro-Zone showed a slight easing in its flash PMI as pricing pressures appear to be levelling off, but still within contraction territory. A Reuters poll of economists showed the majority expect the Bank of England to hike rates by 50-basis points in December. And the European Central Bank is expected to continue its current pace of rate hikes into next year. In Asia, Equities ended positive Wednesday as investors shrugged off a growing number of lockdowns in China amid another step higher in COVID-19 cases. The People’s Bank of China adviser Wang Yiming said he sees China’s 2023 gross-domestic-product (“GDP”) growth above 5% if the COVID outbreak simmers down. However, China’s daily COVID infections are nearing its April peak with several cities including Shanghai enforcing restrictions again. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised rates by 75-basis points, but officials were more hawkish in commentary as a 100-basis point increase was discussed. Elsewhere, Oil fell 4.34% while Gold closed higher by 0.66% after a volatile session.
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For anyone following my Platinum Service it has made 102 points yesterday and is now ahead by 3963 points for November, after finishing October with a record gain of 9619 points, making 6660 points in September, after closing August with a gain of 2228 points, having made 2660 points in July, following a gain of 3371 points in June. The Service made 3651 points in May, after making 762 points in April, following a gain of 5883 points in March. The Platinum Service made an impressive 5324 points in February, after ending January with a gain of 3878 points, more than making up for December’s 932 points loss. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.59% higher at a price of 4029.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 95 points higher for a 0.28% gain at a price of 34,194.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.97% higher at a price of 11,838.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.67% higher.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.5%.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 0.61% higher at a price of 28,115.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.9% lower.
The Euro closed 0.8% higher at $1.0390.
The British Pound closed 1.2% higher at 120.50.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.9% closing at $139.78.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 8 basis points lower at 1.91%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 12 basis points lower at 3.01%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 7 basis points higher at 3.69%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 4.34% lower at $77.82 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.66% higher at $1750.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have German IFO Survey at 9.00 am. The only other data of note is the ECB Minutes from last month’s meeting which will be released at 12.30 pm. Meanwhile, we have speeches from ECB Members De Guindos and Schnabel at 11.15 am and 1.00 pm respectively.
Cash S&P 500
I said over the past few days that bears had very little wriggle room to see markets trade lower. This is exactly what happened as Monday’s sell-off was saw Algos buy the S&P for the light volume drift higher. The 200 Day Moving Average (4059) still looms higher. If bears are lucky we may well see a larger pullback in early December which would be no surprise given how overbought the S&P is now. I cannot buy the market when we have the $NYSI max overbought as every time this signals records an overbought condition the markets sell-off. Yesterday’s FOMC Minutes basically said the rate hike cycle is coming to an end. There is no doubt that the awful PMI readings are saying a recession is coming and from where I sit this is certainly not priced into the equity markets. The VIX fell a further 4.3% yesterday, closing at a price of 20.35. The 14-Day RSI for the VIX is now at 28, signalling that a sell-off in the S&P is now due. I cannot emphasise the importance of the my Platinum Service as the updated emails are so valuable. After the S&P hit my second sell level at 4018 for a 4100 average short position, the S&P sold off to my revised 4003 T/P level and I am now flat. The S&P has resistance at its 200-Day MA. I will be a strong seller from 4048/4065 with a 4081 ‘’Closing Stop’’. My only interest in buying the S&P is still on a dip lower to 3945/3965 with a 3929 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
EUR/USD
The Euro rallied to my sell range yesterday. I am now short at 1.0360 with a now higher 1.0310 T/P level. I will add to this position at 1.0440 while leaving my 1.0495 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged.
March Dollar Index
The Dollar got hit hard yesterday, hitting my 106.40 buy level. I am still long and I will add to this position at 105.60 while leaving my 105.25 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged.
Cash DAX
No Change. The DAX has continues to struggle which is no surprise given it is max overbought. We have resistance from 14580/14680 where I will be a small seller with a wider 14805 ‘’Closing Stop’’. My only interest in buying the DAX is still on a dip lower to 13920/14020 with the same 13855 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Cash FTSE
The boring action in the FTSE continues. The FTSE just missed my 7500 sell level by three points before trading lower into the New York close. Today, I will still be a seller from 7500/7560 with a 7605 tight ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be long the FTSE at this time.
Dow Rolling Contract
I am still flat the Dow. The Dow rallied hard yesterday, closing above 34,200. It was a strong session all round – despite the low volume- as shown by the McClellan Oscillator closing at +142 last night. The Dow has resistance from 34400/34650 where I will be a seller with a 34805 higher ‘’Closing Stop’’. With the 14 Day RSI at 70, I do not want to be long the Dow at this time.
Cash NASDAQ 100
The NDX never came close to yesterday’s buy level. The NDX led yesterday’s move higher which was no surprise given the further drop in Bond Yields. Today, I will again be a buyer on any dip lower to 11600/11750 with a higher 11495 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 11830
December BUND
The Bund missed yesterday’s buy level before having a nice rally into the close. I am still flat and today I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 139.30/140.10 with a higher 138.55 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Gold Rolling Contract
I am still flat. I do not like the price action. As a result, I will not chase the market higher, leaving my 1710/1722 buy level unchanged with the same 1699 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Silver Rolling Contract
As I did not like the price action in Gold, I covered my latest 21.10 long Silver position at 21.32 and I am still flat. Today, I will again be a buyer from 20.20/20.90 with no stop and a T/P level at 21.50 if triggered.
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