U.S Indices closed higher for the fourth consecutive trading session on vaccine news. Pharmaceutical company Pfizer and its biotechnology partner BioNtech have announced an agreement to sell 100 million doses of the Coronavirus vaccine to the U.S. Government. The agreement includes an option to buy a further 500 million doses. On the stimulus front Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said yesterday’s discussions with the Democratic Leadership made great progress and he expects a deal next week. Meanwhile Existing Home Sales surged 21% in June. The S&P and Dow both closed higher by 0.6%. European Indices declined after the European Parliament said cuts to the long-term budget were unacceptable, while UK Officials were said to be giving up on the prospects of agreeing a Trade Deal with the EU by the end of the year, by possibly indicating a ‘’Hard Brexit’’. Elsewhere, Silver’s rally extended to 19% in just three days to levels last seen in 2015, while both the Dollar and Oil closed lower.
To mark my 2100th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 257 points yesterday and is now ahead by 2570 points for July, having made 2580 points in June, 2456 points in May, 4773 points in April, an incredible 9264 points in March, 2223 points in February and 2142 points in January. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
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Equities
The S&P 500 Index rose 0.6%, to close at a price of 3276.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 165 points for a 0.6% gain to close at 27,005.
The Nasdaq 100 Index ROSE 0.35%, closing at 10,870.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index fell 0.9%, closing at a price of 373.44.
The Nikkei is closed until Monday.
Currencies
Here is a Summary of the main Changes in F.X. Markets:
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index declined 0.3%.
The Euro rose 0.4% to $1.1574.
The British Pound gained 0.1% to $1.2750.
The Japanese Yen weakened 0.4% to 107.20 per dollar.
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries closed flat at 0.60%.
Germany’s 10-year yield fell three basis points to -0.49%.
Britain’s 10-year yield dipped two basis points to 0.12%, the lowest on record
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude dipped 0.2% to $41.84 a barrel.
Silver strengthened 8.2% to $22.65 per ounce.
Gold rose 1.4% to $1868 an ounce
This morning on the Economic Front we already had the release of German GFK Consumer Confidence which fell 0.3 versus -4.5 expected. At 11.00 am we have the UK CBI Industrial Trends Survey and this is followed at 1.30 pm by the latest U.S Weekly Jobless Claims. Finally, we have Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence at 3.00 pm and the Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Index at 4.00 pm.
September S&P 500
I said yesterday that as long as the S&P can hold key support at 3225 then the market will continue to be a buy on dips. Well, shortly after I posted we hit a morning low of 3227 before the market turned around and is now trading higher at 3275 this morning as yet again anyone trying to short the S&P is getting slammed. For the record I bought the S&P at 3235 before exiting this position too early at my revised 3243 T/P level as I had too may open positions on board at the time and I am still flat. The S&P is now working itself more and more into the massive ‘’Open Gap’’ from February 21/24 between 3258 and 3330. I will now narrow my sell range to 3292/3310 with the same 3325 stop. The S&P has short-term support from 3242/3257 where I will be a buyer with a 3229 tight stop.
EUR/USD
Frustratingly the Euro just missed my 1.1500 T/P level with a 1.1506 low print before the Euro rallied to my 1.1575 stop on my 11515 latest short position and I am still flat. The break and close above 1.1480 has led most analysts saying the Euro is going to rally by over 10% over the coming months as the Euro will get major support from the EU Leaders Euro 750 billion Recovery Fund agreed last Tuesday morning. However, as we know with markets nothing moves in a straight line. The Euro is severely overbought as shown by the Daily Sentiment Index which closed last night with a reading of 84. This is the most extreme level since the top at 1.2558 on February 16, 2018 when the DSI hit 87. Now the DSI may move into the 90’s before we see a meaningful top. The Euro has initial resistance from 1.1630/1.1690 where I will be a seller with a 1.1745 wider stop. I would expect to see some profit taking by long positions in this area and this should take the market lower. If this happens, I will be an aggressive buyer from 1.1430/1.1480 with a 1.1375 stop.
September Dollar Index
No Change as I am still long in small size at 95.20. I will continue to add to this position at 94.70 with the same 94.45 tight stop. The DSI closed at 15 for the Dollar last night which is the lowest percentage of bullish traders since September 21, 2018 when the DSI had an 11 print. I will leave my T/P level unchanged at 95.45 and if any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
September DAX
I am still flat the DAX and today I will now raise my buy level to 12900/13030 with a higher 12815 stop. Meanwhile, I will leave my 13300/13430 sell level unchanged with the same 13505 stop.
September FTSE
My FTSE plan worked well with the market trading lower overnight to my 6160 buy level before rallying to my 6190 revised T/P level as emailed to my Platinum Members earlier this morning and I am still flat. Today I will again look to buy the FTSE from 6100/6150 with the same 6065 stop. The FTSE has resistance from 6270/6330 where I will be a seller with a 6375 stop.
Dow Rolling Contract
My Dow plan also worked well as shortly after I posted yesterday morning the Dow traded lower to my 26680 buy level before rallying to my revised 26755 T/P level and I am still flat. This morning the Dow is trading higher at 27100 as yet again short positions are slammed. The Dow has strong resistance from 27300/27550 where I will be a seller with a 27725 stop. The Dow continues to build value above the 200 Day Moving Average (26235) and as long a this key support holds then the Dow will be a buy on dips. Today my buy level will be from 26700/26900 with a 26565 stop.
September NASDAQ
After the NASDAQ hit my initial 10800 buy level I emailed my Platinum Members to exit any long position at 10835 before telling them to buy the market again at 10790. After my second buy level was hit I covered this position at my 10855 T/P level and I am now flat. Today I will again look to buy the NASDAQ on any dip lower to 10720/10820 with a 10635 stop. Meanwhile my only interest in selling the NASDAQ is still on a further rally to 11080/11180 with the same 11265 stop.
September BUND
The BUND traded higher to my initial 176.60 sell level. I am still short and I will add to this trade at 177.10 with the same 177.45 stop. I will now raise my T/P level on this position to 176.35 and if any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold just missed my 1840 buy level with a 1843 low print before rallying to trade at 1873 this morning. I will now raise my buy level to 1838/1850 with a higher 1829 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
My Silver plan worked well with the market selling off as I sent yesterday’s commentary. I bought the market at 21.65 before the market rallied to my 21.97 T/P level and I am still flat. This morning Silver is trading higher at 22.80 having risen an incredible 19% this week. Silver is extremely overbought as shown by the DSI which closed at 93% bulls last night. Silver has resistance from 23.50/24.10 where I will be a small seller with a 24.55 stop. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 22.90.
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