US Indices closed higher on Wednesday after President Trump ruled out military action over Greenland, easing market fears, though gains were capped after Denmark rejected Trump’s demand to negotiate a US takeover of the island. Later, Trump said that after meeting NATO Secretary General Rutte, a framework for a future deal on Greenland had been formed and that he would therefore not impose tariffs scheduled to take effect on 1st February. Traders are still awaiting details regarding the ‘deal’. An EU spokesperson said that the bloc’s emergency meeting will still take place on Thursday, with traders eyeing potential retaliatory measures. Trump’s update lifted stocks and the US Dollar further but weighed on gold. The USD gained as easing safe-haven demand pressured the EURO and Swiss Franc, while USDJPY ticked up on the back of USD strength as well as continued concerns over Japan’s fiscal trajectory. Gold hit fresh record highs around USD 4,888/oz early on, but surrendered most gains as immediate geopolitical tensions eased, traders took profits, and prices were later hit by Trump’s tariff update. T-Note futures edged higher; the Treasury’s sale of USD 13 billion of 20 year bonds drew strong demand, stopping 1bps through the screens, with a near-record 2.86x cover, as direct buyers took a record share and left dealers with a minimal amount. Earlier, Swedish pension fund Alecta said it had sold most of its US Treasury holdings, citing increased risk and unpredictability in US politics. Crude prices rose early, driven by temporary shutdowns at major Kazakh fields, including fire-related force majeure at Tengiz and drone damage to loading buoys that sharply cut output. Prices settled slightly higher, with gains said to have been capped by anticipated inventory builds in this week’s reports, and traders also noted the return of Canadian oil export bottlenecks amid a production surge, with Enbridge rationing space on its Mainline system for February and shippers facing cuts of more than 20%, the highest apportionment since the Trans Mountain expansion launched. Pending Home Sales for December tumbled 9.3% M/M (exp. -0.3%), with declines in all four regions. In the release, NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun noted that after several months of encouraging signs in pending contracts and closed sales, this report dampened the short-term outlook, and the housing sector is not out of the woods yet. Ahead, Yun added they will be watching the data in the coming months to determine whether the soft contract signings were a one-month aberration or the start of an underlying trend. As a result, the Chief Economist added the decline [in pending home sales] could be a result of dampened consumer enthusiasm about buying a home when there are so few options listed for sale, as in December there were only 1.18 million homes on the market – matching the lowest inventory level of 2025. Elsewhere, Oil closed flat while Gold ended Wednesday with a 0.6% rise following a trading session that witnessed plenty of two-way price action.
To mark my 3300th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 500 points yesterday and is now ahead by 3987 points for January having closed December with a gain of 2599 points, after ending the month of November with a gain of 4542 points, after ending October with a nice gain of 5110 points after closing September with a gain of 3774 points while ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 1.16% higher at a price of 6875.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 588 points higher for a 1.21% gain at a price of 49,077.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 1.36% higher at a price of 25,326.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.01% lower.
This Morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 1.1% higher.
This Morning, the Nikkei closed 1.73% higher at a price of 53,668.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.15% higher.
The Euro closed 0.35% lower at $1.1677.
The British Pound closed 0.08% lower at $1.3422.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.12% closing at $158.41
Bonds
U.K.’s 10-Year Gilt closed 1 basis points lower at 4.45%.
Germany’s 10-Year Bund Yield closed 2 basis points higher at 2.88%
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 4 basis points lower at 4.24%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.21% higher at $60.55 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.6% higher at $4809.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we already have UK CBI Distributives Trades Survey at 11.00 am. This is followed by U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims, GDP and PCE at 1.30 pm. Next, we have Personal Spending and Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence at 3.00 pm. Finally, we have the Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index at 4.00 pm and a 10-Year Treasury Auction at 6.00 pm.
Cash S&P 500
The S&P closed 1% higher on Wednesday, reversing 50% of Tuesday’s decline. Well, there is not much to say at this point other than the market bounced from Tuesday. It is hard to say more than that at this point. Much of what we saw likely stemmed from hedges unwinding as fears over Greenland subsided. Meanwhile, the VIX 1Day closed at 12, so there is not much vol to crush at the open this afternoon, even following the PCE report. The only problem is whether Greenland was the true cause of the market decline on Monday; no doubt it played a role, but the bigger question is how much the sell-off in JGBs the night before had to do with it. 10-Yr JGB rates fell by 8 bps in Japan on Wednesday, but as far as I know, nothing really changed, aside from some nervousness from government officials. The true test will come when the Bank of Japan meeting is concluded on Friday. One thing with Trump is clear: He tries to scare markets with his tariff threats and once both Bond Markets and Equity Markets get crushed he rolls back on his threats and magic markets recover. This move higher saw the S&P close 45 Handles above the 50 Day Moving Average and this rally has continued overnight with the S&P trading at 6907 as I go to post. Shortly after I posted yesterday morning the S&P hit my 6825 T/P level on my latest 6805 average long position and I am now flat. Any test of the 50 Day MA over the coming sessions should attract strong buying. Therefore, I will be a buyer of the S&P on any dip lower to 6825/6850 with a wider 6799 ‘Closing Stop’. The S&P has short-term resistance from 6950/6975 where I will be a seller with a7001 ‘Closing Stop’. If these views change I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
I am still short the Euro at a price of 1.1710 with the same 1.1650 T/P level. I will look to look to add to this trade on any further move higher to 1.1780 while raising my ‘Closing Stop’ to 1.1835. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dollar Index
I am still long the Dollar at an average rate of 98.70 with the same 99.20 T/P level. I will now raise my ‘Closing Stop’ to 98.05. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Russell 2000
Just as I sent yesterday’s update to my Platinum Members, the Russell hit my sell range for a now 2700 short position. I will continue to look to add to this position at 2750 while leaving my 2805 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. I will now raise my T/P level to 2640. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
FTSE 100
Just before the European close the FTSE traded higher to my 10160-sell level. I am still short with a now higher 10110 T/P level. I will continue to look to add to this trade at 10260 while leaving my 10335 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dow Rolling Contract
My Dow plan worked well on Wednesday as a few hours after I posted yesterday the Dow sold off to my 48320-buy level before rallying to my 48620 T/P level and I am now flat. I have no interest in selling the Dow here or do I have interest in chasing the market higher. The Dow has short-term support from 48550/48850 where I will be a small buyer with a higher 48395 tight ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 49080. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash NASDAQ 100
Frustrating! The NDX missed Wednesday’s buy range by 40 points before reversing and rip over 550 points higher. Thankfully we have had no sell levels in the NDX over the past few days. Yesterday’s rally saw the 50 Day Moving Average at 25311 recovered and any move to this area should attract buying on any initial tag. Therefore, today, I will be a small buyer from 25100/25300 with a higher 24895 wider ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 25490.
December BUND
No Change: I am still flat as the Bund continues to trade in very narrow ranges. Despite the higher PPI print on Wednesday the Bund followed Treasury prices higher. Remember a market that cannot sell-off on bad news has to be respected. Today, I will continue to be a buyer from 126.80/127.50 with a lower 126.15 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 128.10. I still do not want to be short the Bund at this time.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold hit a new all-time yesterday at 4888. Thankfully we have stayed away from Gold for the last few weeks as I certainly did not see this move coming in both Gold and Silver given how overextended the precious metals are on Daily Charts. Today, I will be a small seller from 4880/4910 with a tight 4945 ‘Closing Stop’. If triggered, I will have a T/P level at 4810.
Silver Rolling Contract
I am still flat as Silver continued to trade lower for most of Wednesday’s trading session. Given how overbought Silver is trading I will now look to be a seller of rallies. Today, I will lower my sell level to 95.40/97.40 with a lower 99.05 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 93.60.
Please Note: There will be no Daily Commentary tomorrow. Any of my calls that are not executed today and are subsequently triggered on Friday will see me return with updated emails for my Platinum Members.
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