U.S. Equity Markets closed mixed after another volatile session. Although, the Dow closed slightly positive, the NASDAQ got hit hard, closing lower by 0.86% after 10-year Treasuries hit 4%. The ISM PMI came in at 47.7, a minor improvement from January. However, it is still the fourth straight monthly contraction (an index reading of less than 50). The report suggested continued inflation, with the prices-paid component moving back into expansion territory. Fed Atlanta President Raphael Bostic said that interest rates would need to peak at 5.25% and remain there well into 2024, while Fed Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari struck a slightly more dovish tone, saying that while he was open to either a 25- or 50-basis-point increase in March, the central bank’s guidance was far more important. The yields on 10-year Treasurys rose above 4% for the first time since last November as investors continue to sell bonds on the consensus that rates will head higher and stay there for longer. Within the S&P 500 Index, eight of the 11 sectors finished lower. European Markets closed lower. U.K. House Price growth for February fell at the sharpest annual rate since 2012 as higher interest rates cut into homebuyer demand, while retail inflation rose to 8.4% in February as rising costs continue to burden retailers and consumers. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said that further rate increases are likely needed to contain inflation and that easing policy too soon could repeat the mistakes of the 1970s. Finally, ECB Member François Villeroy de Galhau said that peak interest rates could be reached by the end of summer at the latest. In Asia, Chinese Composite PMI data for February rose compared with January as manufacturing activity hit the highest level since 2012. Australian CPI for January was weaker than expected, falling compared with December – a sign that pricing pressures may finally be starting to ease. Bank of Japan Member Nakagawa said it should continue to employ easy-money policies moving forward to support economic growth. Elsewhere, Oil rose 0.83% while a weaker Dollar saw Gold yesterday’s session higher by 0.44%
To mark my 2725th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 500 points yesterday, on the first trading session for March after finishing February with a gain of 3164 points, after closing January with a gain of 4687 points, while finishing December with a gain of 2054 points. November ended with a gain of 4789 points, while finishing October with a record gain of 9619 points, making 6660 points in September, after closing August with a gain of 2228 points, having made 2660 points in July, following a gain of 3371 points in June. The Service made 3651 points in May, after making 762 points in April, following a gain of 5883 points in March. The Platinum Service made an impressive 5324 points in February, after ending January with a gain of 3878 points, more than making up for December’s 932 points loss. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.47% lower at a price of 3951
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 5 points higher for a 0.02% gain at a price of 32,661.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.86% lower at a price of 11,938.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.75% lower.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific rose 0.66%.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 0.26% higher at a price of 27,516.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.4% lower.
The Euro closed 0.7% higher at $1.0657.
The British Pound closed 0.1% lower at 1.2012.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.2% closing at $136.11.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 8 basis points higher at 2.72%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 1 basis points lower at 3.83%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 6 basis points higher at 3.99%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.83% higher at $77.69 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.44% higher at $1836.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have Euro-Zone CPI and Unemployment at 10.00 am. This is followed by U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims, Unit Labour Costs and Non-Farm Productivity at 1.30 pm. Finally, we have a speech from Fed Member Waller at 9.00 pm.
Cash S&P 500
Despite the S&P having seven red candles in a row and four weekly red candles in a row, buying the dip gives you a chance to make some points. Apart from last Tuesday, this strategy has worked well all year so far. Yesterday, the S&P rallied to my 3983 T/P level on my latest 3965 long position before falling 50 Handles to my second buy level at 3960 as emailed earlier to my Platinum Members. I am still long with the same 3939 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will now lower my T/P level on this position to 3971 as I want try and build on the good start to March. There is no doubt that Bulls need a reversal in the rising Bond Yields yet Bears must be going mad that nothing so far has broken. In my opinion one big down day in Treasury Yields and this oversold market has a relief rally written all over it. Internals actually improved yesterday while the Dow is up 100 points this morning as I go to press. Earlier this morning, the S&P hit my aggressive buy level at 3932. AS I am still long from above at 3960, I have now exited this second long position here at 3940. I will continue to be an aggressive buyer on any further move lower to 3895/3920 with no stop or T/P level for now if triggered. I still do not want to be short the market at this time.
EUR/USD
The Euro had a nice reversal yesterday morning. This move higher occurred despite weaker equity Markets, enabling me to cover my 1.0635 average long position at 1.0660 and I am now flat. I am impressed that despite the S&P falling 50 Handles off its morning high the Euro held on to most of yesterday’s gains. The Euro has support from 1.0550/1.0620 with a higher 1.0495 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
March Dollar Index
I am still flat as the Dollar never came close to yesterday’s sell range. I will now lower my sell level to 104.90/105.60 with a lower 106.10 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Cash DAX
Despite the gloomy and depressing macro charts that I follow the DAX is painting a completely different picture. It is up over 30% off its October low and has ripped higher above the pre above Russian invasion levels. Crazy as it sounds but the DAX could even make new all-time highs just like the FTSE did 10 days ago. I am still flat the DAX. However, I will not chase the market higher leaving my 15100/15180 buy level unchanged with the same 14995 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Cash FTSE
My latest long 7860 long position worked well as the market rallied to my 7910 T/P level and I am now flat. Rising Gilt yields have hindered the FTSE from making further gains above 8000. The FTSE has support from 7790/7850 where I will again be a buyer with a 7735 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the FTSE at this time.
Dow Rolling Contract
My latest 32550 long Dow position worked well as the market rallied to my 32710 T/P level and I am now flat. The Dow continues to hold its 200 Day Moving Average (32354) which is positive. Today, I will be a buyer from 32250/32500 with a higher 32095 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Cash NASDAQ 100
My latest 11970 long NDX position worked well as the market rallied to my 12060 T/P level. Subsequently, I emailed my Platinum Members to buy the NDX again at an average price of 11890. I will have a 11695 ‘’Closing Stop’’ on the latest long position while my T/P level will be at 11970. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with anew update for my Platinum Members.
March BUND
Bund yields soaring to their highest level since 2011 at a price of 2.75% saw my latest 133.00 average long position stopped on the close at 131.95 and I am now flat. At least we were able to absorb this loss given the equity profits made yesterday. The Bund is extremely oversold. We have support from 130.70/131.50 where I will be a small buyer with a tight 129.95 Closing Stop’’.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold continued Tuesday’s reversal off its 1804 low print. I am still flat as the market never came close to my 1812 buy level. I will now raise my buy level to 1805/1820 with a higher 1791 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Silver Rolling Contract
I have not written about Silver in a couple of weeks. In my opinion Silver is a buy on any dip given how fundamentally oversold this precious metal is. I do not normally have a trade with no stop. However, we have made plenty of points by being a buyer of dips over the last 18 months in Silver. For Silver to look better from a technical perspective it needs to break the key 24.00/25.00 resistance area which has held a number of times in 2023. Remember, Silver hit a high of over $51 in May 2011. History tells you that when buyers step in to buy Silver it can rally by over $5 in one day. This is the main reason that I am still long at an average rate of 23.10 as I want to be long for the inevitable move higher. We are up a number of points this year and I have now problem holding this position even though I am currently over 200 points offside. I will now have no T/P level on this position for now.
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