U.S Equity markets rose ahead of the FOMC Statement helped by positive economic data. Retail sales rose, but missed estimates. While the data fell short of expectations, it continued a trend of increased spending. Homebuilder Sentiment hit a fresh all-time high, as optimism grew for both the current sales pace and future sales. CDC Director Dr. Robert Red field said he expects the U.S. to begin COVID-19 vaccinations between November and December of this year. He added that it will take “six to nine months” after that to get the general population vaccinated. In the afternoon, the Federal Reserve held rates steady, as expected. The statement noted that economic activity and employment have both picked up in recent months. But it said the central bank is committed to doing whatever it takes to meet its dual mandate of maximum employment and stable prices. It will continue to use the full range of tools at its disposal. As for Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference, he said economic recovery has progressed more rapidly than originally anticipated. However, traders wanted more and the U,S. Indices sold off into the close led by the NASDAQ which closed 1.67% lower. This sell-off has continued overnight, showing how illiquid markets are at this time. As I go to press the S&P Futures are down 60 Handles at 3325. Elsewhere, European Indices closed flat after the German government gave $890 billion in grants to three companies developing COVID-19 vaccines, with Pfizer and BioNTech’s candidate receiving about half of the funds. British Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak said his office would find “creative” ways to continue supporting the labour market. In other news Oil closed 4.9% higher after a larger than expected decrease in U.S. crude inventories.
To mark my 2150th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 42 points yesterday and is now ahead by 1249 points for September, having made 2383 points in August, 3128 points in July, 2580 points in June, 2456 points in May, 4773 points in April, an incredible 9264 points in March, 2223 points in February and 2142 points in January. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
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Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.46% lower at a price of 3385.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 36 points higher for a 0.13% gain at a price of 28,032.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 1.67% lower at a price of 11,247.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed unchanged 0.2%.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.7%%.
This morning the Nikkei closed 0.67% lower at 23,319.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index again closed 0.3%higher.
The Euro closed 0.4% lower at $1.1810.
The British Pound closed 0.8% higher at $1.2992.
The Japanese Yen closed 0.3% higher at 105.10 per dollar.
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries closed unchanged at 0.67%.
Germany’s 10-year yield closed unchanged at -0.49%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed unchanged at 0.22%.
Commodities
The Bloomberg Commodity Index rose 0.3%.
West Texas Intermediate closed 4.9% higher at $40.15 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.3% lower at $1949.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have Euro-Zone CPI and Construction Output.at 10.00 am. This is followed at 12.00 pm by the Bank of England Rate Decision and Monetary Policy Summary. At 1.30 pm we have the latest U.S Weekly Jobless Claims, Building Permits and Housing Starts. Finally, at 145 pm we have the Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey.
December S&P 500
Initially my S&P plan worked well with the market trading higher to my 3415 sell level before selling off to my 3404 T/P level. The S&P sold off into the close and as I went to bed we were trading lower at 3382. However, overnight the S&P got slammed to sit at 3325 as I go press having hit an earlier low at 3310. I know of you do not trade overnight and are probably flat. However, I bought the S&P at 3356 before getting stopped at 3339 and I am now flat. Even though the S&P is testing its 50 Day Moving Average I still would not chase the market lower as we have left a large ‘’Open Gap’’ from last night’s Chicago close plus we have the September Contract expiring tomorrow. Today, I will be a buyer from 3305/3322 with a 3289 wider stop. I will be a small seller (on any rally back to last night’s close) from 3365/3380 with a 3391 stop.
EUR/USD
After the Euro traded lower to my 1.1790 buy level, I emailed my Platinum Members to exit any long position at my 1.1817 revised T/P level and I am now flat. This morning the Euro is opening lower at 1.1775. We have strong support from 1.1680/1.1730 where I will be a buyer with a 1.1625 stop. I will now lower my sell level to 1.1860/1.1910 with a lower 1.1955 stop.
December Dollar Index
I am still flat the Dollar which never came close to my buy level. I will now raise my buy level to 92.60/93.10 with a higher 92.15 stop.
December DAX
The DAX has gapped lower this morning, trading 150 points lower than last night’s close. As a result the DAX has traded the whole of yesterday’s buy range and I am now long at an average rate of 13060. I will leave my stop unchanged at 12975 while lowering my T/P level to 13110. The DAX has strong support from 12880/12960 where I will be a buyer with a wider 12795 stop. A break and close below 12850 will signal lower prices ahead.
December FTSE
The FTSE followed the US Indices lower, trading the whole of my buy range for a now 5995 average long position. I will now lower my T/P level on this position to 6020 while raising my stop slightly to 5938.
Dow Rolling Contract
Due to technical problems the Dow was not posted on my website yesterday. However, I did do a Dow commentary for my Platinum Members. Overnight the Dow traded the whole of my buy range and I am now long at an average rate of 27650. The 50 Day MA for the Dow is at 27400 and ahead of the Quadruple Expiration tomorrow I would expect this support to hold. I will now lower my T/P level on this position to 27740 with a wider 27395 stop. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
December NASDAQ
Late yesterday the NASDAQ traded lower to my 11235 buy level before rallying to my revised 11260 T/P level as emailed after the close to my Platinum Members and I am still flat. This morning the NASDAQ is trading at 11050 thus showing how illiquid these markets are at this time. The NASDAQ has strong support from 11700/11900 where I will be an aggressive buyer with a 11545 wider stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 11040.
December BUND
No Change as I am still a buyer from 173.10/173.50 with the same 172.75 stop.
Gold Rolling Contract
Overnight Gold traded lower to my 1940 buy level with a 1936 low. As I am long Silver I have now exited my Gold position here for a small gain at 1945 and I am now flat.
Silver Rolling Contract
Silver has traded lower to my 26.70 initial buy level. I will now lower my T/P level on this position to 27.10. I will add to this trade on any further dip lower to 26.10 with a now higher 25.55 stop. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
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