U.S. Indices largely saw two-way trade on Wednesday. The focus point was on the NFP report, which overall was very strong in January, with the headline smashing expectations, unemployment rate ticking down, and wages ticking up. The initial reaction was upside in Equity Futures and the Dollar, and downside in T-notes and Gold. However, after the initial move, the reaction started to fade gradually throughout the rest of the session. Alongside the report, we saw the annual BLS benchmark revisions; the total nonfarm payrolls were revised down in the year to March 2025 by 862k, deeper than the expected downward revisions of 825k but revised up from the preliminary estimate of 911k. The downward revisions remind us that the labour market may not be as robust as it seems and perhaps could be a reason for the fading of the initial moves. Analysts were also cautious that the strength seen in January would not be sustained and that job growth was concentrated in certain sectors. Fed rate cut bets were pared with the first 25 basis points rate cut now fully priced by July (prev. June), but two rate cuts are still fully priced by year-end, more dovish than the Fed’s median dot plot projection for 2026, which implies just one more rate cut. Attention largely turns to CPI on Friday. Stocks ultimately closed mixed, with the Russell underperforming and the NASDAQ outperforming. Sectors were predominantly firmer, with Energy and Staples leading the gains, while Communications and Financials lagged. Energy stocks tracked crude prices higher, while financials were weighed on continued AI disruption concerns. Crude prices were choppy, with upside seen on reports that Trump is sending another carrier to the Middle East if talks with Iran do not go well. However, weakness was seen amid commentary from Ukrainian President Zelensky that a deal on territory is the focus of the next talks with the US, albeit price action was choppy throughout the session. The T-note reversal post-NFP hit a snag after a weak 10-year auction, which saw the largest tail since August 2024. Overall, the January US Jobs report was strong. Headline NFP rose 130k, well above the 70k forecast and above the top end of analyst estimates (-10k to +108k) and accelerating from the prior 50k. Even with Powell’s December estimate of a 60k monthly overshoot from the BLS, the report is still strong. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.3% from 4.4%, despite expectations for this to be unchanged. The drop was also accompanied by an uptick in the participation rate, making the drop in unemployment even more notable. Within the establishment survey, private payrolls surged 172k, above the 70k forecast and above the analyst estimate range of 30-100k. Within the report, we saw the final annual BLS benchmark payroll revisions through to March 2025, which saw total jobs revised down by 862k, vs the preliminary estimate of 911k, and vs. the Bloomberg consensus of -825k. The BLS also highlighted that recent extreme weather had no discernible impact on the report. Overall, the strong labour market data bolsters the Fed’s decision to pause as it reduces fears of a labour market downturn. However, it is just one report, and the Fed do like to look for trends. Attention turns to CPI on Friday to see how the inflation side of the Fed’s mandate is in the start of 2026. Oxford Economics highlight the report surprised to the strong side but overstates emerging strength in the labour market. The desk say data is consistent with their view that labour market conditions have stabilised and warrant no change for their forecast on the economy. It also maintains its view that the Fed will be on hold until June. Elsewhere, both Oil and Gold closed higher by 1.5% and 1.3% respectively.
To mark my 3325th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it was flat yesterday and is and is still ahead by 4007 points for February, after ending January with a gain of 4757 points, having closed December with a gain of 2599 points, after ending the month of November with a gain of 4542 points, after ending October with a nice gain of 5110 points after closing September with a gain of 3774 points while ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.01% lower at a price of 6941.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 66 points lower for a 0.13% loss at a price of 50,121.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.29% higher at a price of 25,201.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.09% higher.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.4% higher.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 2.28% higher at a price of 57,650.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.05% lower.
The Euro closed 0.25% lower at $1.1882.
The British Pound closed 0.21% lower at $1.3639.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.25% closing at $152.73.
Bonds
U.K.’s 10-Year Gilt closed 2 basis points lower at 4.48%.
Germany’s 10-Year Bund Yield closed 1 basis points lower at 2.79%
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 4 basis points higher at 4.18%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1.52% higher at $64.93 a barrel.
Gold closed 1.31% higher at $5082.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have U.K. GDP, Trade Balance and Industrial/Manufacturing production at 7.00 am. Next, we have U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims at 1.30 pm and Existing Home Sales at 3.00 pm. Finally, we have a 30-Year Treasury Auction at 6.00 pm.
Cash S&P 500
Wednesday was a frustrating session across the board as a number of my buy/sell levels just missed being executed. The S&P hit a high at 6993 – 2 Handles below my 6995 initial sell range before falling to an afternoon low at 6912. Subsequently we traded higher/sideways for the rest of the session before closing unchanged in Chicago. I do not have a huge edge in the market at this time. As a result, I will leave my levels unchanged from yesterday especially as we have the key CPI Report on Friday. Therefore, my sell level will remain unchanged from 6995/7020 with the same 7041 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 6969. My only interest in buying the market is on move lower to 6830/6855 with the same 6805 ‘Closing Stop’. If triggered, I will have a T/P level at 6886. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
Frustrating! The Euro missed my initial 1.1830 buy level by two points before rallying 60 points into the close off its 1.1832 low print and I am still flat. Today, I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 1.1750/1.1830 with the same 1.1675 ‘Closing Stop’. The Euro has short-term resistance from 1.2040/1.2120 where I will be a small seller with a 1.2205 wider ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 1.1890. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 1.1960.
Dollar Index
I am still long the Dollar from early Tuesday morning at 96.80. I will continue to look to add to this position on any further move lower to 96.00 while leaving my 95.35 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. Meanwhile, I will now lower my T/P level to 97.20. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Russell 2000
I am still flat the Russell as the market just missed Wednesday’s sell range by one point. Today, I will continue to be a seller from 2715/2775 with the same 2825 tight ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 2665.
FTSE 100
The FTSE surged on Wednesday, closing at a new all-time high. This move higher saw my 10500-sell level triggered. I will add to this position at 10600 while raising my ’Closing Stop’ to 10675. I will also raise my T/P level to 10430. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dow Rolling Contract
I am still flat. Ahead of the key U.S. CPI data tomorrow I will leave my 50600/50900 sell level unchanged with the same 51235 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 50350. If this view changes I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash NASDAQ 100
The NDX fell shy of Wednesday’s sell range and I am still flat. As we are having a super month there is no need to take undue risks as I prefer to be patient and wait for my levels to be executed. Today, I will continue to be a seller from 25440/25640 with the same 25805 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 25310.
December BUND
I am still flat as the Bund never came close to Wednesday’s buy range. Today, I will raise my buy level to 127.40/128.10 with a higher 126.75 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 128.65. If this view changes I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold continues to build value above $5000. However, I still do not trust the price action in Gold short-term. Long-term I am bullish Gold but I am still looking for a more aggressive move lower to push pressure on weak long positions first before moving higher. Given the volatility I have no interest in chasing the market higher believing that we can break down again without notice. Therefore, I will continue to be a buyer from 4750/4820 with the same 4595 wider ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 4910. If this view changes I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change: I am still flat. With Bitcoin trading lower at $67K this morning I do not think we are finished with lower Silver prices. Therefore, I will continue to wait for lower prices before initiating a new long position. We have short-term support below from 69.10/73.10 where I will again be a buyer with the same 66.85 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 75.80
Please Note: There will be no Daily Commentary tomorrow. Any of my calls that are not executed today and are subsequently triggered on Friday will see me return with updated emails for my Platinum Members. I flew to Florida on Wednesday and I will here for the next two months. As a result my Daily Commentary will be in your inbox when you wake up until the middle of April.
Recent Comments