U.S. Equity Markets bounced around for most of Friday before rising sharply into the close, led by the S&P 500 which gained 1.94%. Markets sold off sharply at the open on the heels of Thursday’s comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Powell did little to soothe investors’ fears regarding higher Interest Rates and inflation, failing to signal the central bank was prepared to take action. But strong jobs data boosted markets later in the morning. February’s Non-Farm Payroll came in much stronger than expected, potentially indicating that the jobs market is gaining momentum again. And the Unemployment Rate fell to 6.2%, the lowest level since the pandemic hit. On stimulus, the Senate voted on Saturday to pass the $1.9 trillion package before, sending the bill to President Joe Biden’s desk. European Markets closed mixed. French Prime Minister Jean Castex said the government aims to have 30 million citizens vaccinated by the summer, accounting for nearly half of the country’s population. German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz said the government would increase deficit spending this year to support the economy and offset damage from the coronavirus pandemic. OPEC and its partners agreed to extend oil output cuts through April, supporting further price gains. European Union coronavirus vaccinations rose to 36.94 million through yesterday, with a daily average of 993,300 doses administered over the last week. Elsewhere, Oil rose again closing 3.84% higher as OPEC agreed to keep output unchanged in April, while Gold fell 0.22% on Dollar strength.
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For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 245 points on Friday and is now ahead by 1121 points for March, having closed February with an impressive gain of 3286 points, having made 2077 points in January, 2273 points in December, 2025 points in November, 2779 points in October, 3042 points in September, 2383 points in August, 3128 points in July, 2580 points in June, 2456 points in May, 4773 points in April, and an incredible 9264 points in March. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
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Equities
The S&P 500 closed 1.95% higher at a price of 3842.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 572 points higher for a 1.75% gain at a price of 31,496.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 1.64% higher at a price of 12,668.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.4% lower.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.3%.
This morning the Nikkei closed 0.42% lower at a price of 28,743.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.8% higher.
The Euro closed 1.4% higher at $1.1912.
The British Pound closed 0.6% lower at $1.3828.
The Japanese Yen closed 0.3% lower at 108.42 per dollar.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed two basis points higher at -0.31%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed two basis points lower at 0.76%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed two basis points higher at 1.59%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 3.94% higher at $65.25 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.22% lower at $1,690.60 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we already had the release of German Industrial Production which fell a huge 2.5% versus -0.4% expected. At 9.30 am we have Euro-Zone Sentix Investor Confidence. Finally, at 3.00 pm we have U.S Wholesale Inventories.
March S&P 500
Friday turned out to be one of the most volatile trading sessions of the year so far. After the stronger than expect NFP data the S&P rallied to my 3805 sell level before selling off to an afternoon low at 3728.75, just missing my 3728 buy level. This initial sell-off saw my 3790 T/P level executed and I am still flat. Friday was otter chaos as shown by the swings in Small Caps. From +2% pre-open, to down 2.5% before rallying to close with a gain of 2.2%. This smelled of intervention as stocks were rescued by the biggest intra-day dip buy since the 2011 EU crisis bailouts. Last night, when the S&P Futures re-opened, the market spiked to a high of 3865 following the news that the Senate had passed the Stimulus Bill. Subsequently we sold off to a low at 3805 earlier this morning and we are now trading at 3812 as I go to press. The S&P has support from 3788/3803 where I will again be a buyer with a 3779 ‘’Closing Stop’’. My longer term buy level is still from 3670/3690 where I will be an aggressive buyer with the same 3655 ‘’Fixed Stop’’. The S&P has resistance from 3865/3880 where I will be a small seller with a 3895 stop. Building value above 3870 is a strong buy signal for a test of new highs above 4000.
EUR/USD
Just as I posted on Friday, I was stopped out of my 1.2000 long Euro position at 1.1935 and I am still flat. The Euro has strong support from 1.1800/1.1860 where I will again be a buyer with a 1.1745 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1.1905.
June Dollar Index
My Dollar plan worked well with the market rallying to my 92.10 sell level before trading lower to my 91.75 T/P level and I am still flat. This morning the Dollar is trading higher at 92.15. We have resistance from 92.45/92.95 where I will again be a seller with a 93.31 stop.
March DAX
I am still flat the DAX as the market continues to trade sideways to higher while at the same time holding the key 13800 support level. I will now raise my buy level to 13790/13860 with a higher 13725 stop. I still do not want to be short the DAX at this time.
March FTSE
The FTSE never cam close to my buy 6520 buy level before rallying to sit at 6650 this morning. The FTSE has resistance from 6710/6770 where I will be a small seller with a 6815 stop. I will now raise my buy level to 6520/6580 with a higher 6475 stop.
Dow Rolling Contract
My Dow plan worked well but not for me. After my 31150 sell level was triggered the Dow fell 400 points but unfortunately I covered this position too early at 31130 and I am still flat. The Dow rallied over 1000 points off Friday’s low to last night’s 31730 high print. On indicator that I have not mentioned in over a year is the Hindenburg Omen. The Hindenburg Omen gave a sell signal last week for the first time since January 30th, 2020. The last time we got an official HO, the stock market crashed 35%. These are dangerous markets. I am expecting the Dow to hold in for most of March before having a more meaningful sell-off. Judging by Friday’s aggressive rebound, there is no way the Fed can afford to have another crash at this time. The Dow has support from 31050/31250 where I will be a buyer with a 30895 ‘’Closing Stop’’. Building value and closing above 31550 is a buy signal for 31800/31900, 32010/32150 and higher.
March NASDAQ
After the NASDAQ traded the whole of my buy range for a 12290 average long position I exited this position too early at my 12365 revised T/P level and I am still flat. The NASDAQ made a high last night at 12750 before selling off to sit at 12410 this morning. We have support from 12250/12350 where I will again be a buyer with a 12160 ‘’Fixed Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the market at this time.
June BUND
No Change as I am still a buyer from 170.10/170.60 with the same 169.65 stop.
Gold Rolling Contract
Last week Gold closed below 1700 for the first time since June 2020 and is now closed lower in five of the past six weeks. I am still flat and I will not chase the market higher, leaving my 1660/1675 buy level unchanged with the same 1649 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1687.
Silver Rolling Contract
Overnight Silver rallied to my 25.60 T/P level on my 25.30 latest long-position and I am now flat. Silver has support from 24.10/24.70 where I will be a buyer with a 23.65 stop.
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