U.S. Equity Markets rose to end the week, after a fifth consecutive gain. The S&P had its best week since early November, with a rise of 5%. Employment data was the big driver today. The U.S. economy added 47,000 jobs in January, resuming a positive trend after a brief blip in December. And the Unemployment rate fell to 6.3%, beating expectations. This is another positive sign for the economic rebound. It was a relatively quiet day otherwise. There were no new headlines on further stimulus legislation, and Democrats are still prepared to push through a $1.9 trillion package via reconciliation. Vaccine news was also positive. Johnson & Johnson applied for emergency use authorisation, saying that they are ready to provide 100 million doses by the summer. And the Food and Drug Administration (“FDA”) reportedly began a review of Novavax’s vaccine, potentially adding more supply. European Indices also closed higher. French Prime Minister Jean Castex said the country does not require a new lockdown, despite the fact social-distancing restrictions can’t be eased yet. The British government said it would impose a 10-day quarantine on travelers visiting the country from those designated as COVID-19 hotspots beginning February 15. German Chancellor Angela Merkel said it is too soon to ease COVID-19 restrictions, even as the spread of the virus eases. German Factory Orders for December were weaker than expected, but November’s data were revised higher, signalling Europe’s largest economy continues to support the regional outlook. Elsewhere, both Oil and Gold closed higher by 1.32% and 1.12% respectively on Dollar weakness.
To mark my 2250th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 155 points last Friday and is now ahead by 580 points for February, having finished January with a gain of 2077 points, 2273 points in December, 2025 points in November, 2779 points in October, 3042 points in September, 2383 points in August, 3128 points in July, 2580 points in June, 2456 points in May, 4773 points in April, and an incredible 9264 points in March. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
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Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.39% higher at a price of 3886.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 92 points higher for a 0.30% gain at a price of 31,148.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.32% higher at a price of 13,603.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.8% higher.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.3%.
This morning, the Nikkei closed 2.12% higher at a price of 29,388.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.4% lower.
The Euro closed 0.4% lower at $1.2030.
The British Pound closed 0.4% higher at $1.3719.
The Japanese Yen closed 0.1% lower at 105.61 per dollar.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed two basis points higher at -0.43%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed five basis points higher at 0.49%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed five basis points higher at 1.18%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1.32% higher at $56.74 a barrel.
Gold closed 1.12% higher at $1,813.20 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we already had the release of German Industrial Production which came in with a print of 0.0% versus +0.3% expected. This is followed by Euro-Zone Sentix Investor Confidence at 9.30 am. This is a light day for economic data with no U.S Releases scheduled. Finally, we have a speech from ECB President Lagarde at 4.15 pm.
March S&P 500
Although, the Unemployment Rate fell to 6.3%, Friday’s NFP data was ugly. Most of the very mild growth came in Public Education, with just 6,000 jobs created in the Private Sector. Another 406,000 people dropped out of the Labour force, keeping the Unemployment Rate artificially low. The broader U-6 rate is over 11%, which is more the real world. Despite this fact the S&P closed at a new all-time high and is now higher again this morning at a price of 3895 as I go to press, an incredible 235 Handles higher from where we were early last Monday morning. After the S&P rose to my second sell level at 3885 for a 3877 average short-position, thankfully we saw a quick 20 Handles decline and this move lower enabled me to cover this position at my revised 3869 T/P level as emailed to my Platinum Members. Overnight the S&P made a new high at 3899 and I have now gone short in small size at a price of 3896. I will add to this trade at 3912 with a 3921 stop. I will have a T/P level on this position at 3888 and if any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members. The S&P has strong support from 3842/3857 where I will be a buyer with a 3829 tight stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 3868.
EUR/USD
My latest 1.1975 long position worked well with the market rallying to my 1.2005 T/P level after the NFP data was released and I am now flat. The Euro has resistance from 1.2085/1.2125 where I will be a seller with a 1.2161 stop. I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 1.1940/1.1980 with a 1.1895 stop.
March Dollar Index
The Dollar fell shy of my 91.75 sell level and I am still flat. I will now lower my sell range to 91.45/91.95 with a lower 92.31 stop.
March DAX
This morning the DAX traded higher to my 14155 sell level before having a small sell-off to my 14120 revised T/P level and I am now flat the DAX. Today, I will be a small seller from 14205/14285 with a higher 14355 stop. Given how overbought the DAX is trading I still do not want to be long the DAX at this time.
March FTSE
Frustratingly, the FTSE missed my 6390 buy level by a few points before rallying to sit at 6470 this morning. I will now raise my buy level to 6370/6420 with a 6335 higher stop. I still do not want to be short the FTSE at this time.
Dow Rolling Contract
Although the Dow is close to trading to a new all-time high, Friday’s rally was weaker than Thursday’s advance in all aspects: Breadth, Volume and Momentum. I am still flat the Dow as I had no sell level in Friday’s Commentary. The Dow has strong resistance from 31520/31700 where I will be an aggressive seller with a 31845 stop. I will now raise my buy level slightly to 30780/30960 with a tight 30655 stop.
March NASDAQ
I was lucky with my 13555 latest short position at the market traded lower to my 13525 T/P level with a 13518 low print before rallying 150 points to hit an overnight high at 13580. The NASDAQ is severely overbought after rising 1000 points since last Monday morning. We have strong resistance from 13720/13800 where I will again be a seller with a 13905 stop. I still do not want to be long the NASDAQ at this time.
March BUND
My latest 176.45 long position did not work well as I was stopped out of this position at 175.85 and I am still flat. Even though the Bund is trading lower this morning I cannot see the ECB letting bond yields rise at this time. The Bund has support from 174.90/175.40 where I will again be a buyer with a 174.55 stop.
Gold Rolling Contract
Just as I posted on Friday Gold was trading at my 1800 T/P level on my latest 1796 long position and I am still flat. Gold rallied late on Friday to hold the key 1800 support level. Today, I will be a small buyer from 1778/1790 with a 1769 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
I am still flat and I will now raise my buy level to 25.90/26.50 with a tight 25.45 stop.
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