U.S. Indexes closed mixed on Thursday, with the Dow the only major Index to finish in positive territory while the NASDAQ 100 closed lower and the S&P 500 flat. Although the softer-than-expected June Non-Farm Payrolls Report saw traders pare Fed rate hike expectations, helping support broader risk sentiment, renewed weakness in large-cap technology stocks outweighed the macro tailwind for NDX. Market breadth was notably more constructive than the headline indices suggested. The majority of sectors finished higher, led by the traditional defensive sectors of Health Care, Consumer Staples and Utilities, while the heavyweight Technology, Consumer Discretionary and Communication Services sectors were the clear laggards. There was no obvious catalyst behind the renewed selling in technology shares, although the move may have reflected a continuation of Wednesday’s weakness following the Meta disruption. Meta (META) reversed its previous session’s gains, however, with lows seen after CEO Zuckerberg said AI agent development had not accelerated in the way the company had expected. Meanwhile, memory stocks remained under pressure, with the DRAM ETF falling 7.7%, while the Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) declined 5.6%. Those declines more than offset Apple’s (AAPL) roughly 5% gain on the session for the NASDAQ 100. Elsewhere, Tesla (TSLA -7.5%) shares plummeted despite stronger-than-expected delivery numbers. It is also possible that some profit-taking and position squaring took place ahead of the long Independence Day weekend, with US markets closed on Friday. The macro focus remained firmly on the June employment report. Nonfarm payrolls increased by just 57k, below the 110k consensus, while prior months were revised lower. The softer labour market data prompted markets to pare Fed rate hike expectations, with money markets pushing back the first fully priced 25bp hike to December from October. The repricing weighed on the Dollar and front-end Treasury yields while providing support for precious metals. In FX, the Dollar weakened against most major peers in response to the NFP report. The Yen and Swiss Franc outperformed as narrowing rate differentials supported traditional havens, while USD/JPY was also likely influenced by a bout of Ministry of Finance intervention during the early European session. The June employment report was softer than expected, with Non-Farm Payrolls rising by 57k, below the 110k consensus and down from the prior 172k, although May was revised lower to 129k. April was also revised down by 31k to 148k, leaving the two-month net revision at -74k, a notable deterioration from the +93k net upward revisions seen in the previous report. Going into the release, many analysts had expected the FIFA World Cup to continue supporting employment, with some desks estimating a boost of around 40k jobs. Instead, leisure and hospitality employment fell by 61k in June, reflecting weaker-than-usual seasonal hiring and largely reversing May’s unusually strong 70k increase. Pantheon Macroeconomics argues the weakness is likely temporary, attributing it to the unwind of an unusually generous seasonal adjustment that boosted May payrolls. Outside of leisure and hospitality, employment continued to trend higher in professional and business services, social assistance, and health care. Private payrolls increased by just 49k, below the 115k consensus and down from 120k previously, while government payrolls rose by 8k after increasing 52k in May. Elsewhere in the report, the unemployment rate declined to 4.2% from 4.3%, although the improvement was largely driven by a fall in the labour force participation rate to 61.5% from 61.8%, suggesting the lower unemployment rate overstated the underlying strength of the labour market. Wage growth was in line with expectations, with average hourly earnings rising 0.3% M/M and 3.5% Y/Y. Despite the softer headline, payroll growth remains within the St. Louis Fed’s estimated breakeven range of 15k-87k jobs per month, while Governor Waller suggested in April that employment growth around zero could be the labour market breakeven. As such, one softer report is unlikely to materially alter the Fed’s policy outlook, particularly given inflation remains above target. Pantheon Macroeconomics described the report as a “reality check”, arguing that business surveys continue to point towards a weaker payroll trend in the second half of the year. The desk highlighted the sharp decline in hiring intentions within the NFIB survey, softer regional Fed surveys and continued weakness in the Indeed and LinkUp measures of job openings. Pantheon expects initial payroll estimates to average around 75k per month in H2 2026, which it believes could ultimately prove consistent with near-zero employment growth after revisions. The BLS’s preliminary annual benchmark revisions are due on August 28th, 2026. From a policy perspective, one softer payroll report is unlikely to significantly reduce expectations for further Fed tightening. However, should this evolve into a broader trend of weaker employment growth, it would make additional rate hikes increasingly difficult to justify. With Chair Warsh having emphasised inflation over employment since taking office, markets will now be watching closely to see whether future Fed communication begins to place greater weight on signs of labour market cooling. Initial Jobless Claims (w/e June 27th) were more-or-less unchanged at 215k (prev. 216k), and marginally beneath the expected 219k, which left the 4-wk average ticking lower to 222k from 224.5k. Unadjusted Initial Claims were expected at 213,550, +2.7% W/W, with seasonal factors expecting an increase of 6,048, +2.9%. Looking at the state breakdown, the biggest declines were in California (-5,884), Pennsylvania (-3,077), and Minnesota (-1,962), with the largest gains seen in New Jersey (+7,150), Connecticut (+2,563), New York (+1,595), and Illinois (+1,327). Oxford Economics highlights that the data is consistent with the low and stable layoff rate that has defined the labor market in recent months. Meanwhile, the continued claims (w/e June 22nd) rose marginally to 1.814mln from 1.812 million, slightly above the 1.810 million forecast. Elsewhere, Oil closed flat while Gold ended Friday’s session with a 0.25% gain.
To mark my 3400th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 830 points on Friday and is now ahead by 1007 points for July after ending June with a new record of 10527 points after ending May with a loss of 1104 points, having ended April with a gain of 1730 points, after ending March with a massive gain of 9002 points, having closed February with a strong gain of 5482 points after ending January with a gain of 4757 points, having closed December with a gain of 2599 points, after ending the month of November with a gain of 4542 points, after ending October with a nice gain of 5110 points after closing September with a gain of 3774 points while ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a previous record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed flat at a price of 7483.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 594 points higher for a 1.14% gain at a price of 52,900.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 1.61% lower at a price of 29,329.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.68% higher.
This Morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.3% lower.
This Morning, the Nikkei closed 0.09% lower at a price of 69,737.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.02% higher.
The Euro closed 0.21% higher at $1.1439.
The British Pound closed 0.41% higher at $1.3350.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.6% closing at $161.33.
Bonds
U.K.’s 10-Year Gilt closed 3 basis points higher at 4.79%.
Germany’s 10-Year Bund Yield closed 1 basis points lower at 2.93%
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 2 basis points higher at 4.49%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.13% higher at $68.78 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.24% higher at $4175.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic front we already had the release of German Factory Orders which rose 1.9% versus +1.5% expected. Next, we have German, Euro-Zone and Construction PMI at 8.30 am, 8.35 am and 9.30 am respectively, followed by Euro-Zone Sentix Investor Confidence at 9.35 am and PPI/ Retail Sales at 10.00 am. This is followed by U.S. Construction PMI at 2.45 pm and ISM Manufacturing PMI at 3.00 pm. Finally, we have a speech from Fed Member Waller at 4.00 pm and ECB President Lagarde at 5.00 pm.
Cash S&P 500
The labor market components of the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence survey confirmed the weakness we received in the June employment reports. The “jobs are plentiful” segment barely budged at 24.9% (it was 29.4% a year back), while “jobs hard to get” expanded to a 22.5% share from 19.8% in May and 19.4% in April. That +2.4 percentage point spread between the two series, labeled as the “jobs gap,” deteriorated from +5.0 points in May and +7.5 points in April. This time last year, try +12.2 points. This was the lowest differential since February 2021, when the headline Unemployment Rate was sitting at 6.2%. Before COVID-19, the last time we saw a number this tepid was back in July 2016, when the Jobless Rate was 4.8%. So, you can see where I am going with this — we are not staying at 4.2% for much longer. And, considering the Fed is at 4.3% for year-end, it is not going to be tightening, and the bond market is going to end up liking that strong possibility of the bark not turning into a bite. The week rounds out with the FOMC Meeting Minutes on Wednesday and speeches from Governor Waller (Monday), New York Fed President Williams, and Dallas Fed President Logan (both Thursday) — giving the market its first chance to hear how policymakers are digesting the softer June data. The consumer-side calendar leads with the ISM Services PMI (Monday), New York Fed 1-Year Ahead Inflation Expectations (Tuesday), and Consumer Credit (Wednesday), while Existing Home Sales (Thursday) and the U.S. Trade Balance (Tuesday) fill in the activity read. This coming week marks the return of Treasury bill net issuance. We had been in a period of paydowns, where the Treasury was issuing fewer bills than were maturing, and that flips in July back to net issuance, with the Treasury offering more bills than are maturing. This week brings about $39 billion in net new issuance, with $17 billion on Tuesday the 7th and another $12 billion on Thursday the 9th. The reason I care so much about this is what tends to happen on Treasury bill settlement dates. Going back to the end of October, Semiconductors have risen only 40% of the time on settlement dates, with the SMH down 0.5% on average. On non-settlement dates, the SMH has risen 65% of the time, with an average gain of 0.55%. Interestingly, Treasury bonds have performed better on bill settlement dates than on non-settlement dates, while the VIX has risen on settlement days 58% of the time and declined 42% of the time. So it is not just that the market tends to go down on settlement dates; volatility tends to be higher, too. The reason this is happening now is that the TGA (the Treasury General Account, the government’s checking account at the Fed) has gone from about $1 trillion down to about $771 billion, and the Treasury now needs to rebuild it back toward the $1 trillion mark. The Treasury has already laid this out: modest reductions to short-dated bill auction sizes in June, around mid-month tax receipts, then incrementally larger bill auctions across the curve in July, continuing until we get closer to the September 15 tax date, when a period of paydowns is likely to return. Treasury estimates the TGA could peak at $1 trillion in late July and sit around $950 billion at the end of September. The Quarterly refunding documentation indicates about $348 billion in total bill issuance during the July-to-September quarter, so the sizes we are seeing this week should continue to increase over the next several weeks and could become rather large. That likely means the TGA will begin to refill quickly, which will weigh on reserve balances, currently around $3.1 trillion. Those should get pushed back toward the $2.75 to $2.8 trillion range, possibly toward the lower end as we saw in October. My S&P plan worked well on Thursday as the market rallied to my 7530-sell level before falling over 100 Handles. This move lower saw my revised 7495 T/P level triggered and I am now flat. The S&P hit a low at 7427 before rallying back above 7500 on Friday. Today, I will again be a seller of the S&P from 7535/7560 with a higher 7581 ‘Closing Stop’. I will now raise my buy level to 7420/7445 with a higher 7399 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 7501. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 7483. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
No Change: I am still long the Euro at an average price of 1.1460 with the same 1.1345 ‘Closing Stop’. Today, I will leave my T/P level unchanged at 1.1485 as I have this position too long. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dollar Index
I am still flat. The weaker than expected Non-Farm Payrolls Report sees the Dollar trading lower by 0.6% since Thursday’s Daily Commentary was posted. The Dollar has support below from 99.90/100.60 where I will be a buyer with a 99.35 tight ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 101.20.
Russell 2000
The Russell sold off to my 2980 T/P level on my latest 3015 short position and I am now flat. The Russell has short-term resistance from 3050/3120 where I will again be a strong seller with a higher 3185 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 2990.
FTSE 100
The FTSE has surged over the past week and I am still flat as the market never came close to Thursday’s buy range. I have no interest in chasing the FTSE higher from here, preferring to be a seller of further rallies. The FTSE has short-term resistance from 10750/10830 where I will be a strong seller with a 10905 wider ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 10690.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow closed at a new all-time high on Thursday. This move higher saw the Dow trade the whole of my sell range for a now 52840 average short position. With the RSI closing at 71 the Dow is overbought and due a correction. I will leave my 53205 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged, while raising my T/P level to 52670. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash NASDAQ 100
My latest 29740 long NDX position worked well as the market rallied to my 29920 T/P level. Subsequently, the NDX fell almost 900 points, hitting my next buy level at 29360 as emailed to my Platinum Members before rallying on Friday morning to my 29625 T/P level and I am now flat. The NDX has short-term resistance from 29900/30100 where I will again be a seller with a 30305 ‘Closing Stop’. The NDX has support below from 29100/29300 where I will again be a buyer with a 28895 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 29690. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 29530.
December BUND
No Change: Today, I will again be a seller of the Bund from 127.60/128.30 with a higher 129.05 ‘Closing Stop’. The Bund has short-term support below from 125.50/126.30 where I will be a strong buyer with a 124.75 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 126.95. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 126.90.
Gold Rolling Contract
With the Daily Sentiment Indicator closing in single digits for both Gold and Silver last week it is no wonder that these precious metals have had strong rallies over the past two trading sessions. Gold has support below at 3970/4070. I will now raise my buy level to this area with a higher 3855 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 4140.
Silver Rolling Contract
Silver rallied 6% on Friday and I am still flat as Thursday’s buy level was never threatened. Today, I will raise my buy level to 57.30/60.30 with a higher 54.95 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 62.45.
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