U.S. Indexes closed mixed on Wednesday, with notable NASDAQ outperformance, while the SPX saw mild gains, RUT was flat and DJI lower, with the equal-weight S&P also declining. The majority of sectors were lower, led by Consumer Staples, Health Care and Real Estate. Meanwhile, Technology and Communication Services rallied, supporting the broader indices given their weightings, largely led by gains in Apple (AAPL) and Alphabet (GOOGL). Attention turns to Micron (MU) earnings after-hours, with some choppy trade seen in late trade on account of month and quarter end. Micron delivered record fiscal 2026 results, and we expect an even stronger fiscal 2027,” CEO Sanjay Mehrotra said in the statement. “Memory enhances this intelligence and the competitiveness of our customers’ platforms.” So far so good. However, what matters more is guidance leading to the stock’s after hours muted reaction. The macro highlight was US PCE, which was broadly softer than expected, although somewhat clouded by BEA methodology changes, with many expecting a downside surprise. The initial reaction was dovish but ultimately faded. Q2 GDP was also stronger than expected, while the Goods Trade Balance deficit widened in August, led by further capital goods imports amid strong AI-related demand. ADP private payrolls also topped expectations. The yield curve bear steepened, with front-end yields relatively anchored while the long end rose. Yields initially fell following the soft PCE report but swiftly pared the move. Money Markets continued to pare Fed hike bets, with the probability of an October hike falling back to around 40% following Fed Governor Williams’ commentary on Tuesday and Wednesday’s PCE report. Goldman Sachs pushed back its next Fed hike call to December from October following the data. In FX, the Dollar was ultimately little changed, while the Australian Dollar lagged following softer-than-expected inflation data. Oil prices settled higher amid little progress in US-Iran diplomacy, while the Yemeni Houthis reportedly struck the Saudi Abqaiq oil facility, with any impact on production still unclear. Gold initially rallied following the PCE data but tumbled into settlement as the initial dovish reaction faded and long-end US yields rose. Attention on Thursday turns largely to the ISM Manufacturing PMI following the strong preliminary S&P Global PMI earlier in the month, before all eyes turn to Friday’s NFP report. The August PCE report was soft with downward revisions, although largely due to methodology changes. Core PCE rose 0.2% M/M, cooling from 0.4% and below the 0.3% consensus, while the Y/Y rate was unchanged at 3.0%, below the 3.3% forecast, with the prior revised down from 3.3%. Headline PCE rose 0.3% M/M, accelerating from 0.1% but below the 0.4% forecast, while the Y/Y rate was unchanged at 3.4%, below the 3.7% forecast, with the prior revised down from 3.7%. Within the report, PCE services prices ex-energy and housing accelerated to 0.4% from 0.1%, while goods prices rose just 0.03%. The softer headline figures are welcome for the Fed, although Oxford Economics highlights that the annual NIPA update revealed a larger-than-expected downward revision to core PCE inflation due to methodological changes affecting software and accessories, portfolio management, and legal services. The consultancy notes that while the revisions ease core PCE inflation at the margin, they do not erase Fed concerns around a broadening of inflation pressures from supply shocks, including the Middle East, the AI investment boom and tariffs. The downward revision was concentrated in portfolio management and investment advice fees, which OxEco suggests should not be given too much weight from the Fed’s perspective. Indeed, the Fed tends to look through inflation tied to financial services and instead places greater emphasis on market-based PCE, which accelerated to 0.4% M/M from 0.1%, while the core market-based measure rose 0.3% from 0.1%. Elsewhere, Personal Income rose just 0.2%, below the 0.5% forecast and prior 0.3%, while consumption accelerated to 0.6% from 0.1%. Nonetheless, the report saw markets further pare hawkish Fed bets following Williams’ remarks on Tuesday. Elsewhere, Oil closed higher by 1.5% while Gold reversed earlier gains, ending Wednesday’s session with a loss of 0.7%.
To mark my 3450th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 620 points yesterday, ending September with a nice gain of 7767 points, after ending the month of August with a gain of 2645 points after closing July with a gain of 8031 points, after ending June with a new record of 10527 points after ending May with a loss of 1104 points, having ended April with a gain of 1730 points, after ending March with a massive gain of 9002 points, having closed February with a strong gain of 5482 points after ending January with a gain of 4757 points, having closed December with a gain of 2599 points, after ending the month of November with a gain of 4542 points, after ending October with a nice gain of 5110 points after closing September with a gain of 3774 points while ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a previous record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.25% lower at a price of 7651.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 443 points lower for a 0.86% loss at a price of 50,906.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.23% higher at a price of 30,408.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.42% lower.
This morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.6% higher.
This morning, the Nikkei closed 3.31% higher at 68,960.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.10% higher.
The Euro closed 0.08% higher at $1.1336.
The British Pound closed 0.23% higher at $1.3259.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.07% closing at $157.31.
Bonds
U.K.’s 10-Year Gilt closed 1 basis points higher at 5.43%.
Germany’s 10-Year Bund Yield closed 4 basis points lower at 3.58%
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 1 basis points higher at 5.29%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1.42% higher at $90.65 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.67% lower at $4153.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic front we have German, Euro-Zone and U.K. Manufacturing PMI at 8.55 am, 9.00 am and 9.30 am respectively. Next, we have Euro-Zone Unemployment at 10.00 am and U.S. Jobless Claims at 1.30 pm. At 2.45 pm we have Manufacturing PMI, followed by ISM Manufacturing and Construction Output at 3.00 pm. Finally, we have speeches from Fed Members: Barkin, Collins, Schmid and Waller, at 2.00 pm, 2.05 pm, 2.10 pm and 3.00 pm respectively.
Cash S&P 500
The S&P finished Wednesday’s trading session lower as rates continued to rise. The 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.3% on the day, while the 30-year reached 5.65%. At this point, we are just about 20 basis points away from the next resistance area on the 30-year at 5.85%. There is not much in the way of resistance between here and there to slow the move higher. Really, the only conclusion that makes sense when it comes to rising bond yields is that the market is repricing rates globally. Japan, which has long served as the low-rate anchor for the rest of the world, has lifted, and global rates are rising along with it. The spread between the U.S. 30-year Treasury yield and the 30-year JGB is now just 1.5%, which is actually very low. Historically, that spread has tended to bottom around 1% and peak somewhere between 2.5% and 3.5%. However, the Nikkei does not care having risen over 6% over the past two trading sessions. What is concerning is where the 30-year JGB sits today. It has been consolidating just below the 4.2% level and has formed what appears to be an ascending triangle. A breakout above 4.2% could have serious reverberations across the global bond markets. TBD. My S&P plan worked well as the market hit my 7663 buy level before rallying 60 Handles. This move higher saw my 7698 T/P level triggered and I am now flat. The S&P hit a low overnight at 7657 before rallying to sit at a price of 7700 this morning. Today, I will again be a buyer of the S&P on any dip lower to 7652/7677 with a wider 7629 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 7712. I still do not want to be short the S&P at this time.
EUR/USD
The Euro continues to trade in narrow ranges within a 1.13 handle. I am still long the Euro from last Thursday at a price of 1.1385. I will continue to look to add to this position at 1.1305 while leaving my 1.1245 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. Meanwhile, I will leave my 1.1470 T/P level unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members
Dollar Index
No Change: I am still short the Dollar from last week at a price of 101.30. The Dollar is overbought and due a correction before moving higher. I will add to this position at 102.10 while leaving my 102.75 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. I will now raise my T/P level to 100.90. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Russell 2000
The Russell continues to underperform the other main US Indexes. I am still long from last week at a price of 2850. I will add to this position at 2780 with the same 2725 ‘Closing Stop’. I will now lower my T/P level to 2875 and reassess if triggered. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
FTSE 100
The FTSE is weak driven by a weaker than expected GDP, lower house prices and higher Gilt Yields with 10-year Gilts above 5.4%. This move lower saw the whole of my buy range triggered for a now 10610 average long position. I will now lower my T/P level to 10650 while leaving my 10495 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dow Rolling Contract
My Dow plan worked well after the market hit my 5128–buy level the Dow rallied to my 31550 T/P level and I am now flat. This was a lucky cut as shortly after the Dow fell 600 points, closing below 51000. The Dow is close to being oversold as shown by the 14-Day RSI which closed at a print of 35 last night. Meanwhile there is still ‘‘FEAR’’ in the market as shown by the Fear & Greed Index which closed with a reading of 31 last night. The Dow has short-term support from 50550/50850 where I will again be a buyer with a lower 50395 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 51170.
Cash NASDAQ 100
Frustratingly the NDX missed my 31220-buy level by just 17 points yesterday before surging overnight to sit at a price of 30850 as I go to post. The price action continues to tell us that the NDX is a buy on dips unless we have a good close below 30,000. Today, I will raise my buy level to 30420/30620 with a higher 30195 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 30810. I still do not want to be short the NDX at this time.
December BUND
No Change: I am still long Bund at an average rate of 120.40 with the same 119.45 ‘Closing Stop’. I will leave my T/P level unchanged at 120.60 and reassess if triggered. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold has traded all over the map over the past 24 hours. Frustratingly. Gold missed my 4220 T/P level by one Dollar before getting hit into the close. Subsequently, Gold has rallied overnight and is trading at a price of 4190 this morning. I will now lower my T/P level on my 4185 average long position to 4210 and reassess if triggered. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change: I am still long Silver at an average rate of 63.30. I will now lower my T/P level to 64.20 with the same 59.95 ‘Closing Stop’. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
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