U.S. Indexes closed mixed, as the tech-heavy NASDAQ 100 outperformed, and ended with gains, as Oracle saw strength amid reports that OpenAI’s annual recurring revenue is reportedly close to USD 70 billion, a steep increase from earlier reports of an annualised run rate over USD 40 billion by mid-2026. Sectors were mixed as Utilities and Communication Services sat atop of the breakdown, while Energy lagged amid the losses in the crude complex after some more positive US/Iran rhetoric, as well as a couple of other bearish oil reports: 1) President Trump reportedly backs Russia sanctions relief on prisoner release, and would create a path for the US to sign lucrative deals involving Russian oil, diesel, rare earth minerals; 2) US DoE offers up to 40 million barrels from SPR. Elsewhere, the Dollar Index ended up with marginal strength, as gains were trimmed following dovish remarks from Fed’s Williams, which garnered US equity upside, as well as the short-end of the Treasury curve reversing losses. The influential member said that there is no need for urgency after September rate hike and hinted that a second hike could wait for the Federal Reserve. Back to G10 FX performance, the Japanese Yen eked out marginal gains, while the Australian Dollar lagged following the RBA hiking rates by 25bps as expected, but was weighed on by the dovish-leaning Bullock remarks. Precious metals gained to similar degrees, as attention turns to risk events later in the week in the form of US PCE, NFP, ISM Mfg., Fed speak, and Micron earnings. On the data footing on Tuesday, US Consumer Confidence was dismal, and JOLTS report saw job openings fall to 7.079 million from 7.335 million, below the 7.23 million forecast, with the vacancy rate easing slightly and the quits rate unchanged. Fed Member Williams was dovish and garnered a market reaction. The New York Fed President stated no need for urgency after Sept rate hike, and hinted the Fed can wait for another hike. The Fed will respond to data when setting monetary policy, and if the economy meets expectations, one further hike is likely this year; more data will help the Fed decide what’s next for rate policy and reiterated he is a big believer in being data dependent. On Monetary Policy, he noted it is a hard task in determining how restrictive it is. Re. inflation, sees it at 3.5% this year, hit 2% target in 2028, and the Fed must make sure high inflation does not become entrenched, and it is imperative to get back to 2%. The influential Williams said inflation should ease because the biggest shocks have largely played out. He said US economic momentum is strong and may be strengthening, and AI investment issues are an increasingly big issue for inflation. Fed policy can make sure the impact of supply shocks is not long-lasting. Fed Member Barr said he sees the US not getting to the 2% inflation target in a timely way unless it adjusts its policy, which he views as likely. He is seeing some elevated wage rates in the skilled trades. Barr is taking the longer view; need to be sure to do what it takes to bring supply and demand into balance. The Governor views the economy as quite strong right now, the labour market solid, and does not have a recession in his base case. He added that risks to achieving the inflation target have increased and risks to the labour market have reduced. Barr expects GDP growth to pick up a bit in H2 from 2% in H1. He noted that it makes sense to pencil in AI productivity boost in medium term yields but difficult to project how or when. The AI buildout is likely to be a strong boost to US economic activity next year or so and is prepared for serious short-term disruptions in labour market from AI. US Consumer Confidence was dismal for September, as the headline fell to 81.9 from 88.6, way beneath the expected 89.2. Present Situation Index tumbled 7.9 points to 109.3, while Expectations Index fell by 5.9 points to 63.6. Consumers’ views of current business conditions fell in September, as 18.5% said they were “good” (prev. 18.8% in Aug.), while 20.4% said they were “bad” (prev. 17.3%). Views of the labour market also softened, with 23.6% of consumers noting they were “plentiful” (prev. 24.5%) and 21.9% said jobs were “hard to get” (prev. 20.3%). Ahead, consumers were more pessimistic about future business conditions, more negative abut the labour market outlook, and assessment of their income prospects was also less optimistic, printing overall a pretty dour picture. Looking at the write-in responses, the Chief Economist of The Conference Board said factors affecting the economy were mostly pessimistic in September. References to prices, the high cost of goods and services, and oil and gas prices in particular, rose to new heights, reflecting September’s surge in fuel costs. Comments about war/conflict eased this month but remained elevated. Consumers also frequently cited politics, trade, and employment in their write-in responses, though to a lesser extent.” Elsewhere, Oil closed lower by almost 4% while Gold reversed some of Monday’s fall with a 1.75% gain.
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For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 370 points yesterday and is now ahead by 7147 points for September after ending the month of August with a gain of 2645 points after closing July with a gain of 8031 points, after ending June with a new record of 10527 points after ending May with a loss of 1104 points, having ended April with a gain of 1730 points, after ending March with a massive gain of 9002 points, having closed February with a strong gain of 5482 points after ending January with a gain of 4757 points, having closed December with a gain of 2599 points, after ending the month of November with a gain of 4542 points, after ending October with a nice gain of 5110 points after closing September with a gain of 3774 points while ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a previous record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
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