U.S. Indexes closed mixed, as the tech-heavy NASDAQ 100 outperformed, and ended with gains, as Oracle saw strength amid reports that OpenAI’s annual recurring revenue is reportedly close to USD 70 billion, a steep increase from earlier reports of an annualised run rate over USD 40 billion by mid-2026. Sectors were mixed as Utilities and Communication Services sat atop of the breakdown, while Energy lagged amid the losses in the crude complex after some more positive US/Iran rhetoric, as well as a couple of other bearish oil reports: 1) President Trump reportedly backs Russia sanctions relief on prisoner release, and would create a path for the US to sign lucrative deals involving Russian oil, diesel, rare earth minerals; 2) US DoE offers up to 40 million barrels from SPR. Elsewhere, the Dollar Index ended up with marginal strength, as gains were trimmed following dovish remarks from Fed’s Williams, which garnered US equity upside, as well as the short-end of the Treasury curve reversing losses. The influential member said that there is no need for urgency after September rate hike and hinted that a second hike could wait for the Federal Reserve. Back to G10 FX performance, the Japanese Yen eked out marginal gains, while the Australian Dollar lagged following the RBA hiking rates by 25bps as expected, but was weighed on by the dovish-leaning Bullock remarks. Precious metals gained to similar degrees, as attention turns to risk events later in the week in the form of US PCE, NFP, ISM Mfg., Fed speak, and Micron earnings. On the data footing on Tuesday, US Consumer Confidence was dismal, and JOLTS report saw job openings fall to 7.079 million from 7.335 million, below the 7.23 million forecast, with the vacancy rate easing slightly and the quits rate unchanged. Fed Member Williams was dovish and garnered a market reaction. The New York Fed President stated no need for urgency after Sept rate hike, and hinted the Fed can wait for another hike. The Fed will respond to data when setting monetary policy, and if the economy meets expectations, one further hike is likely this year; more data will help the Fed decide what’s next for rate policy and reiterated he is a big believer in being data dependent. On Monetary Policy, he noted it is a hard task in determining how restrictive it is. Re. inflation, sees it at 3.5% this year, hit 2% target in 2028, and the Fed must make sure high inflation does not become entrenched, and it is imperative to get back to 2%. The influential Williams said inflation should ease because the biggest shocks have largely played out. He said US economic momentum is strong and may be strengthening, and AI investment issues are an increasingly big issue for inflation. Fed policy can make sure the impact of supply shocks is not long-lasting. Fed Member Barr said he sees the US not getting to the 2% inflation target in a timely way unless it adjusts its policy, which he views as likely. He is seeing some elevated wage rates in the skilled trades. Barr is taking the longer view; need to be sure to do what it takes to bring supply and demand into balance. The Governor views the economy as quite strong right now, the labour market solid, and does not have a recession in his base case. He added that risks to achieving the inflation target have increased and risks to the labour market have reduced. Barr expects GDP growth to pick up a bit in H2 from 2% in H1. He noted that it makes sense to pencil in AI productivity boost in medium term yields but difficult to project how or when. The AI buildout is likely to be a strong boost to US economic activity next year or so and is prepared for serious short-term disruptions in labour market from AI. US Consumer Confidence was dismal for September, as the headline fell to 81.9 from 88.6, way beneath the expected 89.2. Present Situation Index tumbled 7.9 points to 109.3, while Expectations Index fell by 5.9 points to 63.6. Consumers’ views of current business conditions fell in September, as 18.5% said they were “good” (prev. 18.8% in Aug.), while 20.4% said they were “bad” (prev. 17.3%). Views of the labour market also softened, with 23.6% of consumers noting they were “plentiful” (prev. 24.5%) and 21.9% said jobs were “hard to get” (prev. 20.3%). Ahead, consumers were more pessimistic about future business conditions, more negative abut the labour market outlook, and assessment of their income prospects was also less optimistic, printing overall a pretty dour picture. Looking at the write-in responses, the Chief Economist of The Conference Board said factors affecting the economy were mostly pessimistic in September. References to prices, the high cost of goods and services, and oil and gas prices in particular, rose to new heights, reflecting September’s surge in fuel costs. Comments about war/conflict eased this month but remained elevated. Consumers also frequently cited politics, trade, and employment in their write-in responses, though to a lesser extent.” Elsewhere, Oil closed lower by almost 4% while Gold reversed some of Monday’s fall with a 1.75% gain.
To mark my 3450th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 370 points yesterday and is now ahead by 7147 points for September after ending the month of August with a gain of 2645 points after closing July with a gain of 8031 points, after ending June with a new record of 10527 points after ending May with a loss of 1104 points, having ended April with a gain of 1730 points, after ending March with a massive gain of 9002 points, having closed February with a strong gain of 5482 points after ending January with a gain of 4757 points, having closed December with a gain of 2599 points, after ending the month of November with a gain of 4542 points, after ending October with a nice gain of 5110 points after closing September with a gain of 3774 points while ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a previous record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.17% lower at a price of 7670.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 131 points lower for a 0.26% loss at a price of 51,349.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.21% higher at a price of 30,339.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.09% lower.
This morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.5% higher.
This morning, the Nikkei closed 2.15% higher at 66,888.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.39% higher.
The Euro closed 0.47% lower at $1.1316.
The British Pound closed 0.36% lower at $1.3206.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.01% closing at $157.42.
Bonds
U.K.’s 10-Year Gilt closed 1 basis points lower at 5.42%.
Germany’s 10-Year Bund Yield closed 1 basis points lower at 3.62%
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 3 basis points higher at 5.28%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 3.59% lower at $89.28 a barrel.
Gold closed 1.73% higher at $4173.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic front we already had the release of U.K. GDP for Q2 which was revised higher at +0.5% versus +0.4% expected and German Retail Sales which rose 1.3% versus +1.5% expected. Next, we have German Unemployment at 8.55 am and CPI at 1.00 pm. This is followed by U.S. ADP Employment Change at 1.15 pm and GPP along with PCE at 1.30 pm. Next, we have Chicago PMI at 2.45 pm and the Dallas Fed PCE at 3.00 pm. Finally, we have speeches from Fed Members: Barkin, Cook, Goolsbee and Kashkari at 1.30 pm,3.25 pm, 5.10 pm and 6.00 pm respectively.
Cash S&P 500
The S&P price action is telling me that if Bond Yields start to fall then there is every chance that the S&P makes a new all-time high. My ‘Nothing Maters’ theme shows no sign of ending anytime soon. I was very unlucky yesterday as the S&P missed my initial 7653 buy level by less than one Handle before rallying 40 Handles and I am still flat. Today, I will raise my buy level to 7640/7665 with a higher 7619 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 7698. I still do not want to be short the S&P at this time.
EUR/USD
No Change: I am still long the Euro from last Thursday at a price of 1.1385. I will continue to look to add to this position at 1.1305 while leaving my 1.1245 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. Meanwhile, I will leave my 1.1470 T/P level unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members
Dollar Index
I am still short the Dollar from last week at a price of 101.30. The Dollar is overbought and due a correction before moving higher. I will add to this position at 102.10 while leaving my 102.75 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. I will now raise my T/P level to 100.90. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Russell 2000
I am still long the Russell from last week at a price of 2850. I will add to this position at 2780 with the same 2725 ‘Closing Stop’. I will now lower my T/P level to 2880. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
FTSE 100
My FTSE plan worked well as after the market hit my 10640 buy level we rallied overnight to my 10700 T/P level as emailed to my Platinum Members and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a buyer from 10580/10650 with the same 10495 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 10720. I still do not want to be short the FTSE at this time.
Dow Rolling Contract
My Dow plan worked well after the market hit my 51230-buy level the Dow rallied to my revised 51410 T/P level and I am now flat. The Dow has short-term support from 51000/51300 where I will again be a buyer with the same 50795 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 51550.
Cash NASDAQ 100
My latest 30260 NDX plan worked well as just before the close the market traded higher to my revised 30390 T/P level and I am now flat. This morning the NDX is trading lower at 30300. We have short-term support from 30020/30220 where I will be a strong buyer with the same 29895 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 30440. I still do not want to be short the NDX at this time.
December BUND
I am still long Bund at an average rate of 120.40 with the same 119.45 ‘Closing Stop’. I will leave my T/P level unchanged at 120.60 and reassess if triggered. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold rebounded 1.75% on Tuesday following Monday’s 4% hit. I am still long at an average rate of 4185 with the same 4075 ‘Closing Stop’. I will now lower my T/P level to 4220. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Silver Rolling Contract
I am still long Silver at an average rate of 63.30. I will now lower my T/P level to 64.20 with the same 59.95 ‘Closing Stop’. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
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