U.S. Equity Markets primarily saw marginal gains on Friday, but small caps rallied with the Russell 2000 a clear outperformer. Outperformance was seen in Industrials, Consumer Discretionary and Financials while Communication, Utilities and Tech underperformed. Communication was weighed on by further Google (GOOGL) woes with reports that OpenAI is looking to challenge its search business while Tech was weighed on by NVIDIA losses. Elsewhere, the Dollar saw notable gains to see the Dollar Index briefly rise above 108.00 for the first time since 2022 with upside supported by a weaker Euro and Pound after dismal data from the regions. Euro-Zone PMIs were weak across the board while UK Retail Sales were soft. Meanwhile, US data was encouraging with PMI’s beating thanks to a gain in the services sector, although the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey was revised down in November, but still above the October level. The data dictated treasury trade too, upside occurred in the morning after the European and UK data before selling off hitting lows after the US PMI report. Crude prices continued to rise on Friday, seeing the complex wipe out last week’s losses with a focus on the Russia/Ukraine escalation. Bitcoin edged closer to USD 100k but failed to hit the level on Friday. Attention this week turns to the October PCE report, 2nd estimate of Q3 GDP and FOMC Minutes ahead of Thanksgiving.  S&P Global Manufacturing Flash PMI rose to 48.8 from 48.5, in line with market expectations, while Services jumped more than anticipated to 57.0 (exp. 55.2 – highest forecast was 55.6), its sharpest expansion since March 2022, leaving the Composite at 55.3 (prev. 54.1). On the report, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence noted a few interesting points: “The rise in the headline flash PMI indicates that economic growth is accelerating in the fourth quarter, while at the same time inflationary pressures are cooling”; “A concern is that growth remains heavily reliant on the services economy, with manufacturing production declining at an increased rate”; “However, the promise of greater protectionism and tariffs has helped lift confidence in the US good producing sector.”; “Factories are meanwhile stepping up their purchases of imported inputs as they seek to front-run tariffs.” The Final UoM survey of consumer sentiment in November saw multiple revisions lower. Headline sentiment was revised down to 71.8 from 73.0, despite expectations of an uptick to 73.7. The current conditions fell to 63.9 from 64.4 while the forward-looking expectations fell to 76.9 from 78.5, albeit improved from October. The report highlights that in a mirror image of November 2020, the expectations index surged for Republicans and fell for Democrats this month, a reflection of the two groups’ incongruous views of how Trump’s policies will influence the economy. Nonetheless, current conditions saw insignificant changes in November across the political spectrum, but substantial uncertainty remains over future implementation of Trump’s policies, and the survey highlights consumers will continue to re-calibrate their views in the months ahead. The 1yr ahead consumer inflation expectation was unrevised at 2.6% (beneath October’s 2.7%) but the 5yr was revised up to 3.2% from the 3.1% initially reported, and up from October’s 3.0%. Analysts at Oxford Economics highlight that although “the relationship between consumer sentiment and consumer spending has weakened in recent years”, this report bodes well for their forecast for consumption growth to remain close to 3% in the coming year. The desk notes that “Consumer spending is more dependent on real disposable income growth and healthy household balance sheets, which both point to solid growth ahead. Elsewhere, Oil closed 1.63% higher while despite a stronger Dollar, Gold ended Friday with a further gain of 1.25%

To mark my 3100th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details

For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 320 points on Friday and is now ahead by 2626 points for November having finished October with a gain of 2179 points. September saw a gain of 4402 points following a 301-point loss for August after closing July with a gain of 1918 points while June closed with a gain of 2074 points, having made 1843 points in May. The Platinum Service made 4010 points in April after ending March with a gain of 2113 points. February closed with a gain of 1606 points, after closing January with a gain of 3675 points. December saw a gain of 1890 points after finishing November with a gain of 1734 points. October ended with a gain of 3184 after closing September with a small gain of 228 points, after finishing August with a gain of 1485 points, following a small gain of 285 points gain in July, after closing June with a gain of 2683 points. May closed with a gain of 3205 points. April saw a gain of 3354 points while March closed with a gain of 6168 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points last October.  Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification 

Equities

The S&P 500 closed 0.35% higher at a price of 5969.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 426 points higher for a 0.97% gain at a price of 44,296.

The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.17% higher at a price of 20,776.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 1.18% higher.

Last Friday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.3% higher.

Last Friday, the Nikkei closed 0.68% higher at a price of 38,283.

Currencies 

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.48% higher.

The Euro closed 0.8% lower at $1.0416.

The British Pound closed 0.6% lower at 1.2527.

The Japanese Yen rose 0.4% closing at $154.47.

Bonds

Germany’s 10-year yield closed 12 basis points lower 2.24%.

Britain’s 10-year yield closed 8 basis points lower at 4.39%.

U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 1 basis points higher at 4.42%.

Commodities

West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1.63% higher at $71.24 a barrel.

Gold closed 1.2% higher at $2715 an ounce.

This morning on the Economic Front we have the German IFO Business Survey at 9.00 am. This is followed by the Chicago Fed National Activity Index at 1.30 pm. Finally, we have the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index at 3.30 pm and a Two-Year Treasury Auction at 6.00 pm.

Cash S&P 500

The idea of just buying dips in the S&P continues to pay dividends despite the overvaluations. On Thursday the S&P sold off to my 5886-buy level before rallying to my 5904 T/P level and I am now flat. The number of bullish sentiment readings are off the charts which is long-term bearish in my opinion. The problem is we are only a few weeks trading left for 2024 as we hit the traditional Thanksgiving Week strong seasonality ahead of the December Santa rally. My strategy is to continue to be a strong buyer of dips until the market breaks. If as expected the S&P continues to rally into 2025, I will then look at putting on a Macro based short trade. The problem with shorting the market is the stress it causes as the S&P has now been up for 12 of the past 13 months on top of the bullish breakout that started at the October 2022 lows. The Wall Street Journal reported last week that U.S. Households’ allocation to stocks as a share of total financial assets has just reached an all-time high. In 1968 this ratio recorded a peak of 30%. In March 2000, it set a new record at 38.2%. December 2021 brought a new high of 41.6%. In the second quarter of this year, U.S. households’ equity holdings reached 42.2%. Given the latest rally since the Presidential Election, it surely is even higher now.  One wonders if optimism could get any more ebullient. I doubt it. Such sentiments tend to be abundantly expressed as stock market tops. Of course, we will not know this until after a significant top is reached. Market Cap to GDP has now hit 207%. The market average is 0.87, so the current ratio is 130% above the average. In my opinion the next bear market will make the dotcom bust look benign. The S&P has resistance at the November 11 high at 6017. I will be a small seller from 6010/6026 with a higher 6041 ‘’Closing Stop’’. The S&P has short-term support from 5912/5928 where I will be a small buyer with a 5897 tight ‘’Closing Styop’’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 6001. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 5942.

EUR/USD

The Euro hit a new three-year low at 1.0330 shortly after the Euro-Zone PMI data was released. This low attracted strong buying which is no surprise given the Daily Sentiment Index is in single digits. I am still long the Euro at an average rate of 1.0665. Given how oversold the Euro I will continue to hold this position with no stop for now. I will now lower my T/P level to 1.0695. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.

Dollar Index

Wrong! On Thursday I was stopped out of my 105.85 average short Dollar position at 106.85. Subsequently, I emailed my Platinum Members to sell the Dollar again and this was triggered on Friday as the Dollar make a new 2 ½ year high for a now 107.60 average short position. This morning, the Dollar is trading at 107.50. I have a 106.80 T/P level on this position while my stop is at a ‘’Closing Price’’ of 108.65. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.

Cash DAX

Despite awful German and Euro-Zone PMI data the DAX closes higher by 1% with a 300-point rally off post PMI low. Yet again the market has been saved on the expectations that lower Interest Rates will propel growth. This morning the DAX is trading at a price of 19320. I find it so hard to be a buyer of the market given the background but the whole idea of my service is to be objective with the main aim of making points consistently. The DAX has short-term support from 19150/19250 where I will be a small buyer with a wider 18995 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the DAX at this time. If this view changes I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.

Cash FTSE

The FTSE has surged nearly 200 points since Thursday. This should come as no surprise as my technical signals had been generating a buy signal for the past week. This move higher saw my 8140 T/P level triggered on my latest 8080 long position and I am now flat. Although we are short-term overbought, I have no interest in selling the FTSE. I will use any sell-off to buy the market again. The FTSE has support from 8130/8210 where I will be a buyer with a higher 8055 ‘’Closing Stop’’.

Dow Rolling Contract

Frustratingly, the Dow again missed Thursday’s buy range by surging almost 1000 points in the past two trading sessions. This is an insane move given the strength of the Dollar should be hindering the profitability of the main Dow stocks. But hey ‘’Nothing Matters’’ as one short position after another gets beaten up. Traditionally Thanksgiving Week is one of the strongest weeks of the year, so I must resist my urge to sell the market until next month. The Dow has short-term support from 43670/43920. I will now raise my buy level to this area with a higher 43495 tight ‘’Closing Stop’’.

Cash NASDAQ 100

My NDX plan worked well as the market traded lower to my 20440-buy level before rallying to my 20620 T/P level as outlined in Thursday’s Daily Commentary and I am still flat. Although the NDX is struggling to match the recent gains of both the S&P and Dow I have no interest in pressing the short side at this time. This morning, the NDX is trading at 20800. We have support from 20520/20670 where I will be a small buyer with a higher 20395 wider ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 20780.

December BUND

The Bund never came close to my buy range before surging on the awful Euro-Zone PMI data. Bund yields have fallen over 12 basis points since Thursday morning which is a huge move considering how low Bund Yields already are. I will now raise my buy level to 131.50/132.20 with a higher 130.75 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the Bund at this time.

Gold Rolling Contract

Just like both Bitcoin and the American Indexes, Gold continues to attract large scale buying on any dip. This morning Gold is trading a further $60 higher from where I marked prices early Thursday morning. Frustratingly Silver is struggling to match Gold’s price movement. Gold has support from 2650/2665. I will now raise my buy level to this area with a higher 2639 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 2681.

Silver Rolling Contract

No Change: I am still long Silver at an average rate of 32.30 from two weeks ago with the same 29.95 ‘’Closing Stop’’. This morning Silver is trading slightly higher at 31.30. I will now leave my T/P level unchanged at 32.60. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.