After a difficult week, U.S. Equity Markets got slammed on Friday, closing lower by 3% across the board. To cap out the week, investors analysed first-quarter results from major firms to gauge the domestic economy’s health as inflation continues to pressure consumers and businesses. Of the companies that reported over the past several days, 80% offered figures above Wall Street’s expectations, which has helped provide some stability over the largely volatile week. Still, fears about inflation and the U.S. Federal Reserve’s monetary tightening policies remain a pivotal issue, as a rate increase next month would mark the first time since 2006 that the central bank increased its policy rate twice in a row. As a result, many are now becoming increasingly worried that the Fed’s actions may send the economy into a recession. Retailer Gap led the decline closing 18% lower after the announcement that its President and CEO Nancy Green departed from the company. Within the S&P 500, all the 11 sectors finished lower. European Markets closed lower. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde noted inflation may double its target by year-end, amplifying the need to work on normalising policy. S&P Global’s Preliminary Euro-Zone Composite PMI data for April was better than expected, fuelled by a rise in service-related activity. Germany’s Bundesbank said the country’s economy may contract 2% in 2022 if the war in Ukraine intensifies and Russian energy products are banned. French President Emmanuel Macron widened his polling lead against challenger Marine Le Pen in the lead-up to this weekend’s election. As I go to press the Exit Polls have Macron winning with 58% of the vote. In Asia, China’s Securities Regulatory Commission said banks, insurers, and the social security fund should purchase domestic stocks as long-term economic growth targets remained intact. The government of Shanghai announced a new round of COVID-19 testing requirements, adding that restrictions will be removed in batches as areas clear infection protocols. Japan’s Consumer Price Index (“CPI”) for March grew compared with February, fuelled by surging energy prices and a weakening Yen. Jibun Bank’s Preliminary Japanese Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (“PMI”) figures for April rose compared with March due to service activity moving into expansion territory. Elsewhere, Oil fell 2.05% due to China’s ongoing lockdowns and potential European sanctions on Russian crude, while Gold closed 1% lower on increased volatility.
To mark my 2525th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it lost 205 points on Friday and is now ahead by 1827 points for April after closing March with a gain of 5883 points. The Platinum Service made an impressive 5324 points gain in February, after ending January with a gain of 3878 points, more than making up for December’s 932 points loss, having made 2466 points in November, 1028 points in October, 2866 points in September, 1543 points in August, and 996 points in July. The Platinum Service made 1366 points in June, 1439 points in May, 1244 points in April, after ending March with an impressive gain of 3769 points. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 2.77% lower at a price of 4271.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 981 points lower for a 2.82% loss at a price of 33,811.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 2.65% lower at a price of 13,356.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 1.8% lower.
Last Friday, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.8%.
Last Friday, the Nikkei closed 1.63% lower at a price of 27,105.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.4% higher.
The Euro closed 0.3% lower at $1.0799.
The British Pound closed 1.7% lower at 1.2838.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.2%, closing at $128.54.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed three basis points higher at 0.97%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed six basis points lower at 1.97%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed two basis points lower 2.90%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 2.05% lower at $101.64 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.96% lower at $1931.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have German IFO Survey at 7.00 am followed by Euro-Zone Construction Output at 10.00 am. Next, we have U.S. Chicago Fed National Activity Index at 1.30 pm. Finally, we have the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index at 3.30 pm.
Cash S&P 500
It is a long time since we have seen the S&P loose 4.5% in 48 hours with the S&P falling over 270 Handles since the Thursday afternoon high at 4512. Coming on the back of Thursday’s vertical move lower, Friday saw orderly mechanical liquidation with no buyers and a further flush lower after the Cash Markets closed. Massive new lows on Friday, suggests we will see further new lows today especially given the number of Margin Calls. The S&P is severely oversold with the market closing well below its Daily Bollinger Band while the VIX exploded closing 25% higher at a price of 28.21. Friday was another ugly session with the 5 EMA now 110 Handles higher from the close, implying a reconnect is coming and if that reconnect gets rejected then we could easily see a move lower to 3700. I am still long the S&P at 4430. I will add to this position on any further move lower to 4210/4240. I will now lower my exit level on my existing long position to 4359. If the S&P trades lower to my 4210/4240 buy level I will come back with an update form my Platinum Members. The McClellan Oscillator closed at -154 on Friday, suggesting that we may see a further sell-off before we get a more meaningful rally.
EUR/USD
The Euro traded lower to my 1.0770 buy level. On the back of the Macron victory, the Euro opened higher last night, enabling me to cover this position at 1.0820 and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a buyer on any dip lower to 1.0710/1.0770 with the same 1.0635 stop.
March Dollar Index
The Dollar traded the whole of my sell range on Friday for a now 101.05 average short position with a now lower 101.65 stop. I will now raise my T/P level to 100.70 and if any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash DAX
Late Friday, the DAX sold off, trading the whole of my buy range for a now 14110 average long position. With Macron looking set to win the French Presidential Election, the DAX is trading higher as I go to press. I will now lower my T/P level on this position to 14150 while leaving my 13995 stop unchanged.
Cash FTSE
The FTSE got hit hard on Friday as thankfully we had no buy level in this market. This sell-off comes despite Sterling falling nearly 2%, closing in New York at a price of $1.2838. The FTSE has strong support from 7350/7410 where I will again be a buyer with a 7275 wider stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 7465.
Dow Rolling Contract
My Dow plan did not work well on Friday as the market got slammed for over 1000 points as one long position after another got stopped out including me. I bought the Dow at an average rate of 34400 before being stopped at 34145 and I am still flat. After the close on Friday the Dow hit a low of 33675 before rallying after the Futures Markets re-opened last night on the back of the Macron victory. The near 2000-point fall in the Dow since Thursday afternoon, saw the market close below the main Moving Averages. As a result, the Dow will have strong resistance at the 50 Day MA (34245) and the 200 Day MA (35000). Today, I will have a sell level from 34150/34400 with a 34575 stop. The Dow has support from 33270/33520 where I will be an aggressive buyer with a 33095 wider stop.
Cash NASDAQ 100
I am certainly being tested with my 14327 long NDX position. On Friday, the NDX fell a further 300 points and is now at the critical 13200/13300 support level. This area must hold or we are in danger of trading with a 12 Handle. Today. I will be a strong buyer from 13120/13250 with a 12965 stop. If this level is executed I will come back with a update for my Platinum Members.
June BUND
Late Friday, the Bund traded lower to my initial 153.10 buy level. I am still long with the same 153.70 T/P level. I will continue to add to this position on any further move lower to 152.50 while leaving my 151.75 stop unchanged. With European Inflation have risen from 1.3% YOY in March 2021 to 7.5% in March 2022, the 10-Year Bund has risen from -0.5% to +0.95% currently. This is the fastest move in over 20 years, resulting in the ECB sitting on massive losses as they still continue with their insane Bond Buying Programme.
Gold Rolling Contract
I am still flat. As I am now long Silver, I will lower my Gold buy level to 1900/1915 with a tight 1889 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
Silver hit my second buy level at 24.00 for a now 24.30 average long position. I will now lower my T/P level to 24.61 while leaving my 23.45 stop unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Recent Comments