U.S. Indexes closed primarily in the green, with upside ensuing after the SCOTUS struck down President Trump’s IEEPA tariffs. Trump responded by implementing a global 10% tariff rate under Section 122 (which can legally be in place for a maximum of 150 days). Section 232 and 301 tariffs will remain as they are, while the US will also conduct Section 301 probes on nations over the span of five months (150 days). Once the probes are complete, the US will enforce a “fair” 301 tariff rate. Overall, it seems the measures taken by Trump will offset the lost revenue from IEEPA tariffs. The Treasury expects tariff revenue in 2026 to be unchanged from prior estimates. In response to the ruling, T-notes were sold on the prospects of lack of income and potential tariff refunds but swiftly pared on the expectation that Trump will enforce tariffs through other means – which was later confirmed. In FX, the reaction was to sell the Dollar, but ultimately it pared from worst levels and ended the session only slightly lower. The Australian Dollar outperformed while havens lagged. Crude prices settled flat but in choppy trade, with any gains overnight offset by reports that Trump is considering a limited strike on Iran. Silver and Gold prices added to recent gains while Bitcoin also caught a bid. Aside from tariffs, there was plenty of US data. Q4 GDP was soft, but weighed on by the government shutdown, while the December PCE report was hot. The S&P Global Flash PMI data in the US was soft while the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment also missed expectations but new Home Sales beat. However, price action was largely dictated by the trade updates. After the Supreme Court ruled against Trump’s IEEPA tariffs, the US President responded by immediately implementing a 10% global tariff (under Section 122) while confirming that all Section 232 and 301 tariffs remain in place. The President has stressed that they will still impose tariffs through other means, and he touted five options: the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 (Section 232); the Trade Act of 1974 (Sections 122, 201, and 301); and the Tariff Act of 1930 (Section 338). Trump did highlight that Section 338 takes longer to implement, however. He is also taking the angle that after Friday’s ruling, it is now clear what the US can and can’t do. Trump also noted they will be implementing Section 301 probes to protect the US, with the probing period lasting for five months, which will then help the US determine a fair tariff rate once the probes have been completed. On refunds, Trump said that if they have to refund the tariff revenue, they will be in court for the next five years, suggesting a decision will “have to be litigated!”. He also noted that some trade deals negotiated under IEEPA do not stand, but he stressed that nothing has changed with India. Trade deals that no longer stand will be replaced by other means of tariffs. The President also noted how he will go in an even stronger direction now, and he can charge much more than what he was charging. He also stressed that tariff income will now increase. A US official later announced that the US expects countries to honour trade frameworks. Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Bessent said that estimates show that the use of section 122, 232 and 301 tariffs will result in virtually unchanged tariff revenue in 2026 – implying the measures made by the administration will offset any lost revenue from no IEEPA tariffs. The headline PCE rose 0.4% in December, accelerating from 0.2% previously and above the 0.3% forecast. This lifted PCE prices to 2.9% Y/Y, above both the 2.8% expectation and the prior reading. Core prices, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, were also strong, rising 0.4% M/M, above the 0.3% forecast and up from November’s 0.2%. Core Y/Y increased to 3.0% from 2.8%, exceeding the 2.9% forecast. Within the report, Personal Income rose 0.3%, in line with forecasts but easing from 0.4% previously, while spending increased 0.4%, matching both forecasts and the prior. The firm inflation reading is a concern; however, January CPI data, which came in slightly softer, has helped offset some worries around the December PCE report. Core PCE remains the Fed’s preferred gauge, and Fed Chair Powell had indicated December Core PCE would rise 3.0%, with headline at 2.9%, leaving the data broadly in line with Fed expectations and unlikely to materially alter its stance. Recent data show stabilisation in the labour market, and the Fed Minutes noted that the vast majority saw signs of stabilisation and diminished downside labour risks. This shifts greater focus to inflation, which remains above target, and supports the case for holding rates for now. Pantheon Macroeconomics said it expects inflation data to cool decisively in May, prompting the FOMC, most likely under new Chair Kevin Warsh, to ease policy at its June, July and September meetings. Headline GDP grew just 1.4% in the quarter, well below the 3.0% forecast and sharply slower than the prior 4.4%. Much of the downside was attributed to the government shutdown, with the BEA estimating it subtracted about 1% from real GDP growth in Q4. Even though excluding this effect, growth would have been soft. Growth was driven by increases in consumer spending and investment, partly offset by declines in government spending and exports. On prices, the GDP price index rose 3.7%, well above the 2.8% forecast and matching the prior. Headline PCE rose 2.9% from 2.8%, above the 2.8% forecast, while core PCE increased 2.7%, down from 2.9% previously but above the 2.6% forecast. Despite the weak headline figure, ING said GDP is set to rebound, noting that underlying consumer and investment data remain firm. S&P Global Flash PMIs disappointed, as Manufacturing fell to 51.2 from 52.4, beneath the expected 52.6, Services dipped to 52.3 (exp, 53, prev. 52.7), leaving the composite at 52.3 (prev. 53.0). Overall, the Flash PMI metrics indicate slowest business growth for ten months amid weak demand, high prices and bad weather. Within the report, S&P Global chief economist Chris Williamson, noted customer demand growth has softened, and the PMI data so far this year are indicative of GDP rising at an annualized rate of just 1.5%, signalling a marked cooling of the economy in Q1 versus the robust growth rates seen in H2 ’25. Williamson added, “Cos. are suggesting that at least some of this slowdown may prove temporary, partly as extreme weather passes, with business growth expectations rising sharply to the highest for just over a year in February.” However, he adds, confidence remains subdued on the whole, as companies worry about the political environment and impact of policies such as tariffs. Elsewhere, Oil closed flat while Gold surged, ending Friday’s session with a 2.5% gain.
To mark my 3325th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 120 points on Friday and is now ahead by 5202 points for February, after ending January with a gain of 4757 points, having closed December with a gain of 2599 points, after ending the month of November with a gain of 4542 points, after ending October with a nice gain of 5110 points after closing September with a gain of 3774 points while ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.69% higher at a price of 6909.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 230 points higher for a 0.47% gain at a price of 49,625.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.87% higher at a price of 25,012.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.84% higher.
Last Friday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.3% higher.
Last Friday, the Nikkei closed 1.12% lower at a price of 56,825.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.14% lower.
The Euro closed 0.12% higher at $1.1784.
The British Pound closed 0.13% lower at $1.3479.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.33% closing at $155.02.
Bonds
U.K.’s 10-Year Gilt closed 1 basis points lower at 4.36%.
Germany’s 10-Year Bund Yield closed 1 basis points lower at 2.73%
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 1 basis points higher at 4.09%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.12% higher at $66.48 a barrel.
Gold closed 2.51% higher at $45107.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have German IFO Business Survey at 9.00 am. Next, we have the Chicago Fed National Activity Index at 1.30 pm followed by Factory Orders and Durable Goods at 3.00 pm. Finally, at 5.30 pm we have a speech from ECB President Lagarde.
Cash S&P 500
With options expiration now behind us, markets could face their own storm. Roughly $15 billion in T-bill settlements are due on February 24, followed by another $22 billion on February 26. In addition, coupon settlements of $37 billion on February 27 and $59 billion on March 2 are scheduled. That totals approximately $130 billion that could be absorbed by the Treasury over the next week. On top of that, cross-currency basis spreads have moved modestly this past week. I tend to view the JPY 5-year cross-currency basis as a useful proxy for Dollar funding conditions and broader liquidity flows. While the move has not been dramatic, it has shifted in a direction consistent with tighter funding over the past week. That does not mean the trend will persist, but it is worth monitoring. Additionally, implied volatility on the VIX 1-Day typically rises into Nvidia’s earnings release, reflecting concentrated single-name and index event risk. If that pattern holds, there is a reasonable chance the VIX 1-Day trades above 20 by Wednesday afternoon. What does seem clear to me is that once Nvidia reports, the extreme dispersion we have been seeing could begin to fade. Much of the current rotation appears tied to single-name volatility around earnings, and Nvidia is the largest remaining catalyst in that cycle. We saw a similar dynamic with Walmart. As I noted ahead of the report, the elevated volatility dispersion around the stock created asymmetric risk. Following results, the stock declined more than 8% for the week, as that dispersion unwound. As dispersion fades, implied correlations are likely to rise. When correlations move higher after a period of elevated dispersion, the relative-value spread tends to narrow, and index volatility dynamics shift. In that environment, the S&P 500 can become more vulnerable, particularly if the prior rotation that supported the Index begins to unwind. This setup has appeared in October and November. It represents another piece of the broader positioning spectrum that suggests the market may struggle to advance from here. Additionally, I do not think Nvidia’s results will matter much unless the company materially exceeds the usual playbook — something like a $4 to $5 billion revenue beat combined with a meaningful raise in forward guidance. Historically, Nvidia has tended to beat by $2 to $3 billion, and the market is well aware of that pattern. A typical beat and modest raise is already embedded in expectations. With implied volatility likely to continue rising into the report and then compress sharply afterward, there is a meaningful risk that call premiums get crushed. If that happens, holders of short-dated upside calls may begin unwinding positions as time decay accelerates. This view is not about fundamentals or chart patterns — it is about positioning and options mechanics. There is significant call gamma concentrated around the $195 to $200 area. We do not know precisely how that exposure is distributed between customers and dealers, but the clustering itself matters. Large open interest in that zone can act as a resistance band, making it harder for the stock to sustain a move through that range without a true upside surprise. If the stock fails to clear $200 convincingly, premium erosion could accelerate, and hedging adjustments may contribute to incremental selling pressure as exposure is reduced. The S&P traded in a narrow range all of Thursday and Friday morning before surging following the Supreme Ruling. This move higher saw the S&P hit my 6916 sell level. As I wanted to be flat over the weekend I covered this position at my revised 6908 T/P level and I am now flat. On Saturday a fuming Trump increased Tariffs from 10% to 15% and Futures are expect to open lower overnight. Given the extreme valuations I will continue to be a seller of rallies while waiting for a meaningful sell-off before buying the market. The S&P has short-term resistance from 6930/6955 where I will again be a seller with a higher 6981 ‘Closing Stop’. My only interest in buying the S&P is from 6775/6800 with a tight 6749 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 6903. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 6831.
EUR/USD
I am still flat. Today, I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower 1.1650/1.1730 with the same 1.1575 ‘Closing Stop’. I will also leave my 1.1900/1.1980 sell level unchanged with the same 1.2055 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 1.1800. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 1.1830.
Dollar Index
I am still flat. Today, I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 96.40/97.20 with the same 95.85 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 97.80.
Russell 2000
The Russell sold off to my 2645 T/P level on my latest 2685 short position and I am still flat. Today, I will again be a seller from 2690/2760 with a higher 2805 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will again have a T/P level at 2645.
FTSE 100
No Change: Much to my consternation the FTSE continues make new all-time highs, helped by Wednesday’s 1.2% rise. Given both the economic and political backdrop I am completely at a loss why the FTSE continues to make new all-time highs with no two-way price action as anyone shorting the market is forced to cover their positions. I will stay flat the FTSE until I feel I have a better edge in this market. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dow Rolling Contract
Frustrating! The Dow made a low at 49150 – 1 point above my 49150 initial buy level before rallying 550 points. I am still flat. Today, I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 48850/49150 with the same 48595 ‘Closing Stop’. Meanwhile, I will continue to be a seller from 50150/50450 with the same 50705 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 49390. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 49830. If this view changes I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash NASDAQ 100
I am still flat. Today, I will raise my sell level to 25200/25400 with the same 25505 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 25030. The NDX has short-term support below from 24150/24350 where I will continue to be a strong buyer with a 23995 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 24570.
December BUND
No Change: Since 2012. Investors in Japanese Government Bonds have lost roughly half their money in US Dollar terms. By any standard, this is a terrible outcome. While the Japanese Yen has recently bounced, over the past 12 months JGBs remain the only major bond market still delivering negative returns to investors. So far, higher yields have not so far been sufficient to lure investors back into JGBs. Moreover, the aggressive fiscal spending plans of the Takaichi Government are unlikely to generate much enthusiasm for Japanese Bonds. As a result, the path of least resistance for JGBs is likely higher. In turn, this raises a genuine quandary for other Sovereign Bond Markets. As seems likely, JGB Yields continue to creep higher, can US, German and UK Bond Yields fall meaningfully. This is the main reason why I cannot chase the Bund Yield lower. The Bund has short-term resistance from 129.70/130.50 where I will be a seller with a 131.25 ‘Closing Stop’. I no longer want to be a buyer of the Bund at this time.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold continues to build value above $5000. Anyone trying to short Gold for any length of time is getting slammed. I have no interest in selling Gold despite believing that a major correction is now due. Today, I will raise my buy level to 4780/4860 with a higher 4685 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 4955. If this view changes I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Silver Rolling Contract
I am still flat. Silver surged on Friday, closing back above $80. Just like Gold above I do not believe that the sell-off is Silver is over giving the extent of the retracement from above $120. Today, I will raise my buy level to 71.50/74.00 with a higher 68.95 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 76.25
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