U.S. Equity Markets ended the week lower despite a strong rally in the last thirty minutes of trading in what turned out to be a volatile session. The Dow led the market lower finishing day the day with a loss of 0.41%. Earlier Markets rose on vaccine optimism. Late Thursday, the FDA’s advisory committee endorsed Moderna’s COVID-19 vaccine for use in individuals aged 18 and older by a vote of 20-0. But markets quickly gave up gains on uncertainty surrounding stimulus. Congress tried to work out a stimulus deal and government spending bill. The government’s Funding was extended for a few days after the markets closed on Friday evening. So, while Congress was making progress on a stimulus package (according to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell), time is running out for it to pass it. The selling today reflects pessimism that a deal will be reached in time. There was also increased volatility, given it was the third Friday of the month and options are expiring. Additionally, because it’s the end of a quarter, it’s a Quadruple Witching Day. That means even more options are expiring than normal, increasing the potential for dramatic price swings, as we saw when the S&P rallied nearly 40 Handles into the close. European Markets closed higher for the sixth consecutive trading session. The Ifo Institute’s German Business Climate Index for December was stronger than expected, rising versus November, as economic optimism improved. A British Government spokesperson said a trade deal with the European Union was unlikely unless it changed its stance on key issues. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said it could begin Coronavirus vaccinations by the end of this year, conditional upon approval. AstraZeneca and Oxford University said additional study data indicate a double-dosing regimen is more effective for its COVID-19 vaccine than a single dose followed by a half dose. Elsewhere, Oil closed higher by a further 1.36%, on growth optimism as it looked like we were getting close to a second approved COVID-19 vaccine, while Gold closed 0.26% lower on Dollar strength.
To mark my 2200th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 432 points on Friday and is now ahead by 1845 points for December, having finished November with a gain of 2025 points, 2779 points in October, 3042 points in September, 2383 points in August, 3128 points in July, 2580 points in June, 2456 points in May, 4773 points in April, an incredible 9264 points in March, 2223 points in February and 2142 points in January. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.35% lower at a price of 3709.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 124 points lower for a 0.41% loss at a price of 30,179.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.11% lower at a price of 12,738.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.4% higher.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.3%.
This morning the Nikkei closed 0.18% lower at a price of 26,714.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.3% higher.
The Euro closed 0.1% lower at $1.2243.
The British Pound fell 0.3% to close at $1.3495.
The Japanese Yen closed unchanged at 103.28 per dollar.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed unchanged at -0.57%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed one three basis points lower at 0.24%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed three basis points higher at 0.94%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1.36% higher at $48.03 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.26% lower at $1,881.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have no data of note from either side of the Atlantic in the morning. At 1.30 pm we have the Chicago Fed National Activity Index at 1.30 pm. Finally, at 3.00 pm we have Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence.
March S&P 500
My S&P plan worked well with the market trading lower to my 3703 T/P level on my early morning 3714 short position. Subsequently the S&P sold off my 3680 buy level before rallying nearly 40 Handles into the close. This move higher saw my 3690 revised T/P level executed and I am now flat. Given how overbought the S&P is trading I am happy to be a seller of rallies despite the seasonally strong time of the year. The VIX had a wild session, it was higher by 5% in the afternoon before selling off to close lower by 1.6% at 21.57. Internally the market continues to struggle with the MO closing with -10 print. This should not be happening with the US Indices at or close to all-time highs. Today, my sell level will be from 3715/3731 with a 3745 ‘’Closing Stop’’. The S&P has short-term support from 3657/3672 where I will be a buyer with a 3645 stop.
EUR/USD
No Change, as I am still a seller on any further rally to 1.2250/1.2310 with a lower 1.2365 stop. Despite how severely overbought the Euro is at this time, I will continue to be a buyer from 1.2080/1.2140 with a 1.2035 stop.
March Dollar Index
Sentiment is at extreme levels for the Dollar, shown by the Daily Sentiment Index closing with a reading of just 9% Dollar Bulls. Everytime the DSI falls to single digits it is only a matter of time before the Dollar rallies. This morning the Dollar has rallied to my 90.30 T/P level on my latest 90.05 long position and I am now flat. With sentiment levels at such extreme levels I will continue to look to buy the dip and today my buy level will be from 89.70/90.20 with a 89.35 stop.
March DAX
My DAX plan worked well with the market trading higher to my 13720 sell level shorty after I posted with a 13770 high print. Subsequently the market sold off after the December Contracts expired and I was able to cover this position at my revised 13668 T/P level and I am now flat. This morning the DAX has got slammed, trading at 13350 as I go to press. The DAX has short-term support from 13220/13290 where I will be a buyer with a 13165 stop.
December FTSE
After the FTSE rallied to my 6545 sell level, I emailed my Platinum Members to exit any short position at 6520 and I am now flat. This morning the FTSE is opening lower, trading at 6400 as I g to press. The FTSE has support from 6300/6350 where I will be a small buyer with a 6245 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 6395.
Dow Rolling Contract
Shortly after the US Futures Markets re-opened last night the Dow traded higher to my 30400 sell level before selling off to my 30280 T/P level and I am now flat. Today. I will again be a seller from 30380/30580 with a 30750’’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be long the Dow at this time. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 30260.
December NASDAQ
The NASDAQ just missed my 12590 buy level by 20 points before staging a late rally and I am still flat. One major worry for the Bulls is the fact that the Daily Sentiment Index closed on Friday night with a reading of 94%, pushing the 5-day average rise to 92.4%. This is the highest reading in over 14 years and the third highest on record. Each time we saw a large reversal in the market. I will now raise my buy level to 12540/12620 with a higher 12445 stop. I will continue to be a seller from 12810/12900 with the same 12955 tight stop.
March BUND
I am still flat and today I will raise my sell level to 178.55/178.95 with a higher 179.31 stop.
Gold Rolling Contract
No Change as I am still a seller from 1908/1921 with the same 1933 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change as I am still a buyer on any dip lower to 24.60/25.20 with the same 23.95 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 25.55.
Recent Comments