US Indices traded in a narrow range before having a late rally into the close. Markets got a late boost after the National Allergy and Infectious Diseases Director Fauci said he was optimistic a Coronavirus treatment could be ready by this fall. Meanwhile Consumer Confidence unexpectedly fell as another wave of potential shutdowns weighed on sentiment. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is still confident that a fifth stimulus package can be passed in the coming weeks with negotiations to begin this week when Congress returns from its recess. Helping the positive mood was the sharp rebound in June for Housing Starts and Building Permits as they logged their best month since March. European Markets closed mixed as so far there is no agreement on the Euro 750 billion recovery fund with the Dutch PM reticent to any meaningful solution. Spain reported its highest level of daily Coronavirus cases since May 10, leading to some areas of the country to reimpose restrictions, including Barcelona. Elsewhere, Chinese shares were steady after a 4% fall on Thursday while both the Dollar and Oil closed lower. After marathon talks over the weekend, EU leaders look like they have finally reached an agreement and will reconvene at 3.00 pm this afternoon to finalise the details. As I go to press, The Netherlands, Austria, Sweden and Denmark finally agreed that Euro 390 billion of the recovery fund will be in the form of grants and the balance by way of low-interest loans.
To mark my 2100th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it was flat on Friday and is still ahead by 2433 points for July, having made 2580 points in June, 2456 points in May, 4773 points in April, an incredible 9264 points in March, 2223 points in February and 2142 points in January. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
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Equities
The S&P 500 Index closed 0.28% higher at a price of 3224.
The Dow Jones fell 62 points for a 0.23% loss to close at 26,671.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 018% higher at 10646.
The DAX closed 0.17% lower.
The MSCI World Index rose 0.3% to 548.
This morning the Nikkei closed flat at 22,715.
Currencies
Here is a Summary of the main Changes in F.X. Markets:
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index dipped 0.3% to 1204.
The Euro increased 0.5% to $1.1439.
The British Pound closed flat at $1.2554.
The Japanese Yen increased 0.2% to 106.94 per dollar.
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries closed unchanged at 0.62%.
Germany’s 10-year yield gained two basis points to -0.45%.
Britain’s 10-year yield fell rose two basis points to 0.13%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude decreased 0.1% to $40.20 a barrel.
Gold rose 0.7% to $1,810.20 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we already had the release of German PPI for June which printed 0.0% versus +0.2% expected. At 9.00 we have the Euro-Zone Current Account. We have no U.S data of note today as all eyes will turn to Brussels as they final details of the Recovery Fund are published later this afternoon.
September S&P 500
The S&P traded in a narrow range on Friday with the market coming close to my buy level shortly after I posted before finally rallying into the close and I am still flat. Overnight the S&P has traded in a 25 Handle range. With the EU leaders close to agreeing a Recovery Fund this should support Global Markets going forward. With the Euro-Zone joining the Fed in full commitment to economic support it is hard to be short especially with the U.S close to getting a fifth stimulus over the line. Today I will lower my S&P buy level slightly to 3170/3185 with a lower 3159 stop. I will also lower my sell level to 3235/3250 with a 3261 stop.
EUR/USD
The prospect of an agreement in Europe has led to a small rally in the Euro and I am now short at a price of 1.1455. I will now add to this position at 1.1505 with a higher 1.1545 stop. I will also raise my T/P level on this position to 1.1425 and if any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
September Dollar Index
The Dollar has now fallen over 4% over the past few weeks and I am still flat as I never managed to get short. The Dollar is oversold and has strong support from 95.10/95.50 where I will be a buyer with a 94.65 stop.
September DAX
Despite the hard-line actions taken by the Netherlands towards a Recovery Fund Agreement on Friday the DAX never sold off believing that the will of both Germany and France would eventually force a deal. This scenario looks like it will happen when the EU Leaders meet again this afternoon after marathon talks over the weekend. I am still flat the DAX and I will continue to be a small buyer on any dip lower to 12650/12750 with the same 12575 stop. The DAX has strong resistance from 13150/13280 where I will be a seller with a 12355 stop.
September FTSE
I am still flat as the FTSE again traded in a narrow range. I am not going to chase the market higher and I will leave my 6150/6190 buy level unchanged with the same 6115 stop.
Dow Rolling Contract
Despite the Dow having a nice rally last week, the market remains nervous and continues to underperform both the S&P and NASDAQ. As I mentioned on Friday that as long as the Dow can hold its 200 Day MA (26225) I will continue to be a buyer on dips. This morning the Dow is in Friday’s buy range and I am now long in small size at 26550. I will add to this trade on any further move lower to 26350 with the same 26195 wider stop. I will now lower my T/P level on this position to 26680 and if any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members. Meanwhile I will continue to be a seller on any rally higher to 27300/27550 with the same 25725 stop.
September NASDAQ
No Change as I am still a buyer from 10410/10520 with the same 10395 stop. Despite last Monday’s aggressive sell-off in the NASDAQ, I will not chase the market lower and I will leave my 10740/10840 sell level unchanged with a 10955 wider stop.
September BUND
The BUND is trading 60 points lower from where I marked prices last Friday morning and I am still flat. I will now lower my sell level to 176.40/176.90 with a lower 177.35 stop.
Gold Rolling Contract
The boring sideways action in Gold continues as the market tries to consolidate above 1800. I will continue to be a seller from 1825/1837 with the same 1849 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
I am still flat and today I will again raise my buy level to 18.65/19.05 with a higher 18.20 stop.
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