U.S. Indexes closed lower on Friday, amid credit risk and geopolitical tensions, but pared weakness into the close well off earlier troughs. Sectors were mixed, but Financials were the clear laggard as private credit fears continue to linger after the collapse of MFS earlier in the week exposed several US financials, including Wells Fargo, Apollo, and Jefferies. The ongoing private credit concerns may be prompting a rotation out of corporate credit and into safer government debt, underpinning US Treasuries, which saw gains across the curve as Fed rate cut bets were eased for 2026. Energy was the sectorial gainer and buoyed by the strength in WTI and Brent as US/Iran concerns remain ever-present and tensions rise on whether the US is going to strike Iran. Since the talks yesterday, Oman and Iran said talks were positive but in the most recent comments, Trump said he has not made a decision on Iran but is not happy with how they negotiate. As we know this view did not last given the joint invasion of Iran by both the U.S. and Isreal on Saturday morning. As a result the Iranian leader Khamenei was killed. In the FX space, the Swiss Franc outperformed on haven demand, alongside higher gold prices, although the Japanese Yen’s gains were contained perhaps by the recent nominations put forth for the Bank of Japan board, which are viewed as meaning looser policy in the short term. On the data footing, US PPI was much hotter than expected across the board, but despite the very hot core metrics, inflation fears were not reignited and perhaps due to the generally softer PCE components within the report. Into the weekend, participants will keep an eye on any geopolitical developments ahead of the US payrolls report next Friday. PPI: Overall, the headline and core metrics were hotter than expected in January. The headline M/M rose 0.5%, above the 0.3% forecast and accelerating from the prior 0.4%. The Y/Y rose 2.9%, easing from the prior 3.0% but hotter than the 2.6% forecast. The core metrics surged 0.8% M/M above the 0.3% forecast and prior 0.6%, while the Y/Y rose 3.6% up from the prior 3.3% and forecast of 3.0%. Despite the very hot core metrics, inflation fears were not reignited. This is perhaps due to the generally softer PCE components within the report. Portfolio management and domestic air passenger transport fees eased, while in healthcare, physician care costs rose, but others were little changed or eased – hospital outpatient care declined 0.86% from the prior 0.02%. Regarding the large upside, Pantheon Macroeconomics highlights that this was driven by a 2.5% jump in trade services prices, unwinding the squeeze in H2 of 2025. The desk notes that PPI and CPI data indicate the Core PCE deflator rose 0.27% in January, and 2.9% Y/Y from the 3.0% in December. Pantheon adds that “Looking ahead, inflation is likely to be broadly unchanged over the next four months” and expects core PCE to drop sharply from June, ending the year marginally above the 2% target, helping Warsh make the case immediately for looser policy. Elsewhere, Oil surged ending Friday’s session with a gain of 3.36% while geopolitical concerns saw Gold close 2% higher.
To mark my 3325th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 390 points on the first trading session for March having closed February with a strong gain of 5482 points after ending January with a gain of 4757 points, having closed December with a gain of 2599 points, after ending the month of November with a gain of 4542 points, after ending October with a nice gain of 5110 points after closing September with a gain of 3774 points while ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.43% lower at a price of 6878.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 521 points lower for a 1.05% loss at a price of 48,977.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.3% lower at a price of 24,960.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.11% higher.
Last Friday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.6% lower.
Last Friday, the Nikkei closed 0.16% higher at a price of 58,850.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.15% lower.
The Euro closed 0.13% higher at $1.1813.
The British Pound closed 0.15% lower at $1.3461.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.12% closing at $156.08.
Bonds
U.K.’s 10-Year Gilt closed 9 basis points lower at 4.23%.
Germany’s 10-Year Bund Yield closed 7 basis points lower at 2.65%
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 7 basis points lower at 3.97%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 3.36% higher at $67.40 a barrel.
Gold closed 1.84% higher at $5279.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have German Retail Sales at 7.00 am, followed by German, Euro-Zone, U.K. and U.S. Composite Manufacturing PMI at 8.55 am, 9.00 am,9.30 am and 2.45 pm respectively. Finally, we have ISM Manufacturing at 3.00 pm.
Cash S&P 500
It is likely to be a busy and volatile week of trading, given rising geopolitical uncertainty, the Treasury’s unrelenting need to raise cash to finance the deficit, and a slew of economic data. Add in, for good measure, Broadcom reporting results, which follow Nvidia’s results last week. The only thing that seems certain is the level of uncertainty. Volatility was already elevated heading into Monday, and at least at the outset, it is likely to be even higher, with oil CFD markets showing the commodity up around 9% to roughly $73. Whether volatility remains elevated after the initial reaction is another question entirely. As we know, ‘’PUT’’ owners tend not to hold their positions for long, which often leads to volatility being crushed and stocks rising. So, it is entirely possible that if Futures fall at the start of the day on Monday, a rebound could follow shortly thereafter in the S&P 500 as ‘’PUTS’’ are closed out. In the meantime, the S&P 500 still has significant ‘’gamma’’ built up at 6,800. That level will likely serve as the first line of support for the Index. For now, it should continue to act as a line in the sand for the market. Visually, this is fairly easy to see on the technical chart. Each time the S&P 500 has tested 6,800 in recent weeks, it has bounced, while the 6,900 to 6,950 range has acted as resistance. This past week, we had a pretty heavy settlement calendar, and a lot of the data I have been trying to piece together has been showing that settlement dates have a negative bias on the stock market. On the 24th, we had $15 billion, $22 billion, and $37 billion in settlements — combined, roughly $74 billion drained over the past week. This coming week, March 2nd to March 5th, we have another roughly $60 billion, $19 billion, and another $13 billion or so, which gives us about $92 billion this week. Cumulatively, that brings us to approximately $160 billion drained since February 24th. That is a lot of cash being sucked out of the marketplace at a time when geopolitical conditions have ramped up. Since October 28th (which I will explain in a moment), we have had 32 settlement dates and 52 non-settlement dates. On settlement dates, the S&P 500 has seen an average daily decline of about 0.4% versus a 0.25% increase on non-settlement dates. More importantly, cumulative returns have been roughly negative 12% on settlement dates versus positive 14% on non-settlement dates. Additionally, the average up day on a settlement date has been about 0.42%, while the average down day has been about negative 0.83%. On non-settlement dates, returns on up days are around 0.55% higher, and the average down day is only about negative 0.36%. What this implies is that settlement dates are having a bigger and more profound effect on equities. One of the reasons I chose October 28th as the starting point was simply because it looks like around that time, the reverse repo facility really came in and started grinding at its lower bound. Of course, around month-ends and quarter-ends, you can see increased usage in the facility. But for the most part, if you just draw a line through it, you can make a case that it arced lower and then flattened out right around that date. That was really the basis of the choice. I could have probably started a week or two before or after, and I do not think it would have changed very much. The net result is the S&P has gone nowhere over the past four months and in my opinion is adding to the topping process that we are now seeing. This gets really interesting when you look at Bitcoin, and the numbers are pretty brutal. There have been only seven up days on settlement dates. The average daily return is negative 2%, and the cumulative return is negative 47%. On up days during settlement periods, Bitcoin goes up only about 0.9%, while on average it declines about 2.7% on settlement dates. On non-settlement dates (which also include weekends), Bitcoin is up about 50% of the time with positive cumulative returns of nearly 11%. It is also important to understand that in December — between mid-December and mid-January — Treasury was not issuing as many bills. They were essentially paying down Treasuries, meaning they were issuing fewer than what was maturing. That was actually adding liquidity back into the market. During that period, Bitcoin was up about 13% and did not perform poorly at all. As soon as settlements really started kicking off again, Bitcoin took a material turn lower. This implies that Bitcoin is one of the asset classes getting particularly hard-hit by the settlement drain with the market now lower by over 50% from its 2025 all-time high. Not only does this data tell us about how settlement dates are affecting the market, but it also gives us a sense of how market participants are raising capital to pay for this debt. It looks like the higher-beta, riskier parts of the market are suffering much more than the “safer” parts. Of course, nothing is certain, and just because we have a settlement date does not mean the market is going to go down. A third of the time, the market has actually been up. Just this week, on Tuesday, the S&P 500 rose 0.77% on a settlement date. We have also seen the S&P up 0.1% on another settlement day, which was well within the range of a typical settlement-date session — though there was a fairly large settlement on that day. What this analysis really explains is an interesting way to think about how Treasury debt is being financed: riskier assets are being sold while there is a rotation into safer asset classes. My latest 6939 average short S&P position worked well with the market hitting my 6922 T/P level. Overnight on the Futures re-open the S&P has hit my next buy range (as emailed to my Platinum Members) for a now 6805 long position. I will add to this trade at 6775 while my ‘Closing Stop’ will be at a price 6749. I will have a T/P level at 6851 on this position. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
I am still flat. Today, I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower 1.1650/1.1730 with the same 1.1575 ‘Closing Stop’. I will also leave my 1.1900/1.1980 sell level unchanged with the same 1.2055 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 1.1800. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 1.1830.
Dollar Index
I am still flat. Rising oil prices would also be unhelpful for USD/JPY and could contribute to further yen weakness against the dollar. The 158 level in USD/JPY remains key resistance. A sustained break above 158 could open the door for a move toward 160. Today, I will raise my buy level to 96.60/97.40 with the same 95.85 wider ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 98.10.
Russell 2000
I am still flat. Today, I will lower my sell level to 2660/2740 with a lower 2805 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will again have a T/P level at 2605.
FTSE 100
Late Friday the FTSE hit my sell range for a 10920 short position. Overnight the FTSE traded lower to my 10810 T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a seller from 10900/11000 with the same 11075 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 10830. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dow Rolling Contract
I am still flat as the Dow never came close to Thursday’s sell range before accelerating lower, trading at a price of 48400 as I go to post. The Dow has short-term support from 47800/48100 where I will be a buyer with a 47595 ‘Closing Stop’. If triggered, I will have a T/P level at 48420. I no longer want to be short the Dow at this time. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash NASDAQ 100
My latest 25300 short NDX position worked well as the market traded lower to my 25190 T/P level and I am now flat. This morning all American Indexes are trading lower with the NDX at a price of 24700 as I go to post. The NDX has short-term support from 24250/24450 where I will be an aggressive buyer with a 24095 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 24680.
December BUND
Late Friday, the Bund finally rallied to my sell range for a now 130.20 short position. I will add to this position at 131.00 with a now higher 131.65 ‘Closing Stop’. I will now raise my T/P level to 129.60. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold surged on the re-open last night, opening at a price of 5370. I am still short and I will only add to this position at 5450 with a now higher 5525 ‘Closing Stop’. I will now raise my T/P level to 5298. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Silver Rolling Contract
Silver hit an overnight high at 96.80 as the market continues to build value off last month’s $62 low. I have no interest in chasing the market higher or wanting to short Silver especially as I am now short Gold per my commentary above. Today, I will leave my 74.50/77.00 buy level unchanged with the same 71.95 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 79.75
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