U.S. Indexes closed the last session of the week in the red with all sectors lower, aside from Energy, as Materials and Utilities lag, while broad based mega-cap weakness added to the losses. Energy was the only sector in the green and buoyed by gains in the crude complex amid renewed escalation risk as President Trump returned from China and attention turned back to Iran. On that, little incrementally new came out of the Xi/Trump summit, and many await Trump’s return from China. As a reminder, source reports through the week suggested Trump is weighing up possibly resuming military action, but sources added they do not think he would order any before he returns from China, while Israeli sources added that readiness will be raised upon the end of Trump’s visit. There was plenty of commentary from Trump and the Iranian Foreign Minister on Friday, with the latter noting “we have received messages from the US saying that they are seeking continued talks”. The Dollar Index saw gains with Antipodeans, the clear G10 laggards, and hit by losses in Precious Metals and risk sentiment. Treasuries saw pressure, as yields rose, as higher oil prices added to inflation fears in quite a quiet newsflow in the US afternoon. Into the weekend, attention still lies on any indication whether Trump is set to resume military operations against Iran this weekend. On the data front, Industrial Production and Manufacturing Production both topped expectations, although the releases generated little meaningful market reaction, with focus remaining firmly on oil prices and geopolitics. Meanwhile, Fed speak focused on the balance sheet debate ahead of Fed Chair nominee Warsh’s expected arrival at the Fed. Fed’s Barr pushed back against arguments for a materially smaller balance sheet, potentially setting up future debate within the Fed given Warsh’s preference for a smaller balance sheet and reduced holdings of longer-dated Treasuries. Elsewhere, U.K. Gilts also came under pressure amid growing political uncertainty in the UK. The Manchester Mayor Burnham is looking to re-enter parliament, while Streeting’s resignation potentially sets up a future leadership contest involving Burnham, Streeting and Starmer. The weakness in Gilts added to the broader bearish tone in global fixed income markets and likely contributed to some follow-through pressure in Treasuries. Overall, price action remained dominated by energy markets and geopolitics, with higher oil prices lifting inflation expectations and weighing on the Treasury complex. Elsewhere, Oil closed higher by 4.5% while Gold was hit, closing lower by 2.4%.
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