Following another volatile trading session, U.S. Equity Markets finished Friday mixed as the Dow closed lower by 0.56% while the NASDAQ 100 closed with a gain of 0.75%. Markets were volatile due to the start of Earnings Season. JPMorgan Chase (JPM) was the big report of the day. And while the fourth-quarter results were mixed, CEO Jamie Dimon warned of headwinds to profitability from higher labour costs and inflation. Sherwin-Williams (SHW) also had a negative announcement, saying that earnings will take a big hit in the quarter and that it will be raising prices by 12%. Investors took this as a sign of possible things to come throughout the rest of earnings season. In terms of economic data, Consumer Sentiment fell once again, coming in below estimates. In fact, sentiment hit the second-lowest level since 2011, with survey respondents citing high inflation as the reason for pessimism on the economy. Investors will continue to look to earnings season this week for more commentary on inflation or future profitability. Within the S&P 500, seven of the 11 sectors finished lower. European Markets closed lower. German gross domestic product (“GDP”) for 2021 rose 2.7%, matching estimates, and showed the economy grew despite supply-chain and COVID-19-lockdown headwinds. German application-software giant SAP (SAP) said fourth-quarter cloud-services revenue was stronger than expected, growing 28%, and announced a 1 billion Euro share buyback. British scientists said the rate of infections and hospitalisations caused by the COVID-19 Omicron variant are subsiding on a similar timetable to South Africa. In Asia, China’s export figures for December rose more than anticipated as shipments to the U.S., Brazil, and Russia surged. Japan’s Producer Price Index (“CPI”) numbers for December were weaker than expected, falling from November and signaling inflation pressures may be easing. The Bank of Korea raised its benchmark interest rate from 1% to 1.25%, but Governor Lee Ju-yeol said policy would still remain accommodative even if rates rose another 0.25%. The Australian Bureau of Statistics’ home-loan values for November expanded once more as easing coronavirus restrictions encouraged buyers to return to the market. Elsewhere, Oil rose 2.50%, continuing its gains from earlier in the week, while Bitcoin gained 1% as Rio de Janeiro announced it would put 1% of the city Treasury into bitcoin.
To mark my 2475th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 255 points on Friday and is now ahead by 1005 points for January, after ending December with a loss of 932 points, having made 2466 points in November, 1028 points in October, 2866 points in September, 1543 points in August, and 996 points in July. The Platinum Service made 1366 points in June, 1439 points in May, 1244 points in April, having ended March with an impressive gain of 3769 points, 3286 points in February, and 2077 points last January. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
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Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.08% higher at a price of 4662.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 202 points lower for a 0.56% loss at a price of 35,911.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.75% higher at a price of 15,611.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.5% lower.
Last Friday, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.6%.
Last Friday, the Nikkei closed 1.28% lower at a price of 28,124.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.3% higher.
The Euro closed 0.3% lower at $1.1415.
The British Pound closed 0.1% lower at 1.3680.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.1%, closing at $114.23.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed five basis points higher at -0.04%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed four basis points higher at 1.15%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed nine basis points higher at 1.79%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 2.50% higher at $83.48 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.26% lower at $1,817.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have no data of note from either side of the Atlantic. U.S Markets are closed for the Martin Luther King Holiday.
Cash S&P 500
The S&P having just missed my 4678 initial sell level by four Handles, traded to a low of 4615 before reversing higher into the close. This move lower saw the whole of my buy range filled for a 4630 average long position before rallying to my 4638 revised T/P level. Overnight, the S&P did hit my 4678 sell level before selling off to my 4668 T/P level and I am now flat. Despite the near 50-Handle rally of Friday’s intra-day low, the S&P still ended the week below its 50-Day Moving Average (4681) and just like it did earlier, this level should act as strong resistance on any further test. The S&P is no longer oversold and has plenty of room to fall lower. I would love to see the S&P test the 4350/4400 major support over the coming weeks as this would set up a nice potential rebound. Today, the S&P has short-term support from 4628/4643 where I will be a small buyer with a 4614 stop which is just below Friday’s low print. The S&P has resistance from 4685/4700 where I will be a small seller with a lower 4714 tight stop.
EUR/USD
The sell-off in Equity Markets saw the Euro trade lower, hitting my 1.1410 buy level. I am still long with a now lower 1.1440 T/P level. I will not add to this position but I will raise my stop to 1.1345 and if any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
March Dollar Index
Just before the New York the Dollar rallied to my 95.15 T/P level on last week’s 95.00 long position and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a buyer on any dip lower to 94.40/94.90 with a 93.95 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 95.15.
Cash DAX
No Change. I have no interest in chasing the price of the DAX higher. Thus, I will leave my 15700/15780 buy level unchanged with the same 15635 stop.
Cash FTSE
I am still flat the FTSE as the market again traded in a narrow range. With the American Cash Markets closed today, I will now raise my FTSE sell level to 7600/7650 with a wider 7705 stop. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 7570.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow got hit hard again on Friday, trading to a low of 35640, before turning around and rallying 300 points into the close. I bought the Dow at 35870 before covering this position at 35910 and I am still flat. The Dow has support from 35550/35700 where I will again be a buyer with a 35395 wider stop. I still do not want to be short the Dow at this time. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 35850.
Cash NASDAQ 100
The NDX led Friday’s recovery having frustratingly just missed my 15300 buy level by 25 points before rallying to a 15620 rebound high and I am still flat. I will now raise my buy level to 13310/15440 with a 15195 stop. Given how oversold the NDX is, I do not want to be short the market at this time.
March BUND
The Bund traded the whole of my buy range for a 170.25 average long position. My T/P level is at 170.45 with a lower 169.55 stop. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
No Change. Gold continues to struggle to break the 1830/1840 resistance level. With everyone still long Gold I am nervous and today, I will leave my 1780/1795 buy level unchanged with the same 1769 stop
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change. I am still a buyer on any move lower to 21.95/22.65 with the same 21.25 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 23.05.
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