U.S. Equity Markets sold off as investors digested testimony from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, led by the NASDAQ which closed lower by 2.11%, while the Small Cap Russell 2000 fell 2.75%. Bond Yield fears once again drove markets lower. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that the current policy is appropriate for the current economic climate. He also said that a reopening of the economy could lead to a spike in inflation. This unsettled markets, as many investors had hoped for him to say that the Fed will act. Economic data were also a headwind for markets after Jobless Claims rose slightly. Even though Claims came in below estimates, the pickup could spark fears of choppiness in the job market’s recovery. In Washington, the Senate is reportedly set to discuss the new Stimulus Bill today. President Joe Biden is already shifting his focus and is reportedly set to meet with the House of Representatives over a new infrastructure package. European Markets declined. European Central Bank Governing Council Member Jens Weidmann said the ECB is committed to maintaining favorable financing conditions, and the recent yield rise is not concerning. European medicines regulators have started a review of Russia’s COVID-19 vaccine, which showed 92% efficacy in late-stage trials. Saudi Arabia and Russia are said to be working on a deal that would see OPEC’s output rise by just over 1 million barrels per day. European Union coronavirus vaccinations rose to 35.6 million yesterday, with a daily average of 958,700 doses administered over the last week. Elsewhere, Oil surged 4.72% as OPEC agreed to keep output unchanged in April, while Gold broke $1700 on renewed Dollar strength.
To mark my 2250th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 168 points yesterday and is now ahead by 876 points for March, having closed February with an impressive gain of 3286 points, having made 2077 points in January, 2273 points in December, 2025 points in November, 2779 points in October, 3042 points in September, 2383 points in August, 3128 points in July, 2580 points in June, 2456 points in May, 4773 points in April, and an incredible 9264 points in March. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
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Equities
The S&P 500 closed 1.34% lower at a price of 3768.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 346 points lower for a 1.11% loss at a price of 30,924.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 1.73% lower at a price of 12,464.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.4% lower.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.4%.
This morning the Nikkei closed 0.23% lower at a price of 28,864.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.8% higher.
The Euro closed 0.9% lower at $1.2070.
The British Pound closed 0.6% lower at $1.3875.
The Japanese Yen closed 0.9% lower at 108.10 per dollar.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed three basis points higher at -0.29%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed two basis points lower at 0.78%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed ten basis points higher at 1.57%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 4.72% higher at $62.78 a barrel.
Gold closed 1.18% lower at $1,694.60 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we already had the release of German Factory Orders which rose 1.4% versus +0.5% expected. At 1.30 pm we have U.S Non-farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate and Average Earnings. Finally, at 8.00 pm we have Consumer Credit.
March S&P 500
The S&P fell 120 handles within 60 minutes of Fed Chair speech being released, to a low of 3723 before having a small rally into the close. I bought the market at 3777 before getting stopped at 3759 and I am still flat. Unfortunately, the S&P missed my second buy range. With the McClellan Oscillator closing at -185, this indicator is close to giving a buy signal. Today, I will be a small buyer from 3713/3728 with a 3699 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will be an aggressive buyer from 3670/3690 with a 3655 fixed stop. The 50 Day MA comes in at 3817 this morning. As a result, I will be a small seller from 3802/3818 with a 3831 fixed stop.
EUR/USD
The Euro traded the whole of my buy range and I am now long at an average rate of 1.2000. I will now lower my T/P level to 1.2010 and my stop to 1.1935. If I am stopped out of this position I will be an aggressive buyer from 1.1800/1.1860 with a 1.1845 stop. If I am taken long a second time, I will have a T/P level at 1.1905.
June Dollar Index
I have now rolled to the June Contract, which trades at the same price as the March Contract. The Dollar rose 0.9% yesterday and I am still flat. We have resistance from 92.10/92.60 where I will be a seller with a 93.05 stop.
March DAX
My DAX plan worked well with the market trading lower to my 13890 earlier this morning before rallying to my 13945 T/P level and I am now flat. The European Indices continue to outperform the U.S. The DAX has support rom 13750/13820 where I will again be a buyer with a 13685 tight stop.
March FTSE
After the FTSE hit my 6570 buy level we saw a 50 point rally. Unfortunately, I covered this position at 6590 and I am still flat. With Sterling weaker, the FTSE is trading unchanged at 6600 this morning. We have support from 6470/6520 where I will be a buyer with a 6435 tight stop. I still do not want to be short the market at this time.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow fell over 900 points after Powell’s speech was released. This move lower had me long at an average price of 30875. Having watched this position go nearly 300 points in the red, we saw a nice move before the close which enabled me to cover this position at my revised 30945 T/P level as emailed to my Platinum Members and I am now flat. Yesterday’s close saw the Dow finish below its 50 Day MA (30950). The Dow has resistance from 31100/31300 where I will be a seller with a 31455 ‘’Closing Stop’’. The Dow has strong support from 30200/30380 where I will be an aggressive buyer with a 29995 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
March NASDAQ
With Bond Yields spiking above 1.57% following dovish remarks from Fed Chair Powell resulting in huge pressure on technology stocks, as these stocks are more sensitive to rising yields. Yesterday after the NASDAQ traded lower to my 12560 buy level we saw a 200 point rally, enabling me to cover this position too early at 12608. I emailed my Platinum Members to buy the NASDAQ again at 12520 before the market rallied to my 12620 T/P level and I am now flat. The NASDAQ has support at 12400 which is just below last night’s close. Today, I will be a buyer from 12250/12330 with a 12185 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 12410. Given how oversold the NASDAQ is trading I do not want to be short the market at this time.
June BUND
The Bund made a low at 170.82 this morning just missing my 170.80 buy level before rallying to sit at 171.20 as I go to press. Today, I will lower my buy level slightly to 170.10/170.60 with a lower 169.65 stop.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold traded lower to my 1690 buy level before rallying to my 1696 revised T/P level and I am now flat. Gold has strong support from 1660/1675 where I will be an aggressive buyer with a 1649 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
Silver traded lower to my 25.30 buy level. I will add to this trade at 24.70 while leaving my stop unchanged at 24.35. I will now lower my T/P level to 25.60.
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