Equity Markets closed lower in the U.S. and Europe as concern the recent rally had gone too far overshadowed new stimulus measures and encouraging economic data. The S&P 500 Index fell less than half a percentage point, still its biggest drop in two weeks, snapping a four-day winning streak. Treasury yields rose as Weekly Jobless Claims fell. The Stoxx 600 stayed lower even as the European Central Bank moved to add 600 billion Euros to its pandemic purchase programme, more than expected. After exceptional gains for equities in the past week took valuations to the highest since 2000 and pushed technical levels on the S&P 500 toward overbought levels, traders are searching for further tailwinds to drive gains. The moves from the ECB and the slowdown in job losses weren’t enough. Investors are awaiting plans for the next round of U.S. economic stimulus, but Trump administration officials have postponed discussions scheduled for this week, according to people familiar with the matter. Elsewhere, Gold gained along with Silver. Stocks in Asia were mixed. West Texas oil slumped from a three-month high as OPEC+ unity was threatened by a long-running feud over compliance with production cutbacks.
To mark my 2075th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 350 points yesterday and is now ahead by 1010 points for June, having made 2456 points in May, 4773 points in April, an incredible 9264 points in March, 2223 points in February, 2142 points in January and 818 points in December. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
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Equities
The S&P 500 Index fell 0.3%, closing at a price of 3112.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed flat at 26,281.
The Nasdaq 100 Index fell 0.8%, closing at 9629.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index declined 0.7%.
The MSCI All-Country World Index fell 0.4%.
This morning the Nikkei ended the week with a gain of 0.75% to close at 22,864.
Currencies
Here is a summary of the main Changes in F.X. Markets:
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.3%.
The Euro rose 0.9% to $1.1336.
The British Pound rose 0.2% to $1.2602.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.2% to 109.13 per dollar.
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries rose seven basis points to 0.81%.
Germany’s 10-year yield rose three basis points to -0.33%.
Britain’s 10-year yield rose three basis points to 0.30%.
Australia’s 10-year yield rose five basis points to 1.01%.
Commodities
WTI crude fell 0.4% to $37.13 a barrel.
Gold strengthened 0.9% to $1,715.59 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we already had the release of German Factory Orders which fell 25.8% versus – 19.9% expected. At 1.30 pm we have U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls which are expected to fall 8 million. The labour market report will probably show American Unemployment soared to 19.5% in May, the highest since the 1930s. The only other data of note is Canadian Unemployment which will be released at the same time.
June S&P 500
My S&P plan worked well yesterday as two-way trading returned. Earlier I covered my 3109 average short position at my revised 3101 T/P level before selling the market again at 3110 as emailed to my Platinum Members. Subsequently the S&P made a new low for the day at 3088 which enabled me to cover this position at my 3094 T/P level. The S&P rallied in the last 20 minutes of trading to close at 3112 before rallying again overnight to sit a price of 3141 as I go to press. Valuations are off the charts as I have discussed all week but with the Fed buying almost every asset (apart from stocks) it is very difficult to bet against them as they drive valuations to extreme levels. The CBOE total Put/Call ratio is now at 0.56, a tick from matching the reading of 0.55 from February 19, the day the S&P 500 topped. This morning I have gone short the S&P here at 3140. I will add to this position on any further rally to 3157 with a tight 3171 stop. I will have a T/P level at 3124 and if any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members. Of course, being a Friday nobody wants to hold any position over the weekend. I will also move my buy level higher to 3088/3103 with a higher 3079 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 3115.
EUR/USD
My Euro plan worked well with the market rallying to my 1.1265 sell level post the ECB Statement before thankfully selling off to my revised 1.1225 T/P level and I am still flat. This morning the Euro is trading higher for the ninth consecutive trading session at 1.1375, just shy of the key 1.1400 resistance level. The Euro is severely overbought and trading above its Daily Bollinger Band and at the top of the Williams Index. I will be a small seller from 1.1395/1.1455 with a tight 1.1505 stop. I will now raise my buy level to 1.1150/1.1210 with a 1.1095 stop.
June Dollar Index
The Dollar traded the whole of my buy range for an average long position at 97.00. I am still long and I will now lower my stop on this position to 96.25. I will also lower my T/P level to 97.10.
June DAX
My DAX plan worked well with the market trading higher to my 12550 sell level before selling off to my 12480 T/P level with a 12350 low print and I am now flat. The DAX traded heavy for the rest of yesterday before following the US Indices higher this morning to sit at a still overbought price of 12600. The DAX has further resistance from 12820/12950 where I will be a small seller with a 13025 stop. Ahead of the weekend I do not want to be long the DAX.
June FTSE
Shortly after the ECB released its Statement the FTSE traded higher to my 6395 sell level before selling off to my 6340 T/P level and I am still flat. The continued rally in Cable is hindering the FTSE’s progress as we approach long-term resistance from 6455/6515. I will be a seller in this area with a tight 6555 stop.
Dow Rolling Contract
Frustratingly the Dow just missed my 26080 exit level on my 26015 short position with a 26084 low print before spiking higher to my 26250 stop. Subsequently the Dow made an intra-day low of 26073 before surging to my second sell level at 26360. I covered this position too early at 26270 before the 26100 support area was tested and I am still flat. The late rally into the close has continued overnight with the Dow now trading at 26590. The Dow is now trading above its 200 Day Moving Average at 26298 which if holds this evening will be bullish for next week. I will be a small buyer from 26100/26300 with a 25950 stop. My only interest in selling the Dow is on a further rally to 26750/26950 with a 27105 stop.
June NASDAQ
The NASDAQ spiked to my 9740 sell level before falling 200 points which enabled me to cover this position at my 9670 T/P level and I am still flat. Today I will be a seller from 9780/9900 with the same 10005 stop. My only interest in buying the NASDAQ is still from 9380/9480 with a 9295 stop.
June BUND
After the Bund traded lower to my 170.40 buy level I emailed my Platinum Members to exit any long position at 170.60 and I am still flat. This morning we are opening slightly lower at 170.25. The Bund has strong support from 169.30/169.80 where I will be a buyer with a 168.95 tight stop.
Gold Rolling Contract
No Change as I am still a buyer from 1665/1675 with the same 1654 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
I am still flat and today I will raise my buy level to 17.00/17.40 with a higher 16.65 stop.
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