U.S. Equity Markets closed higher led by the 1.05% gain in the Dow. The across-the-board evening buying saw the VIX closed lower by 5% at a price of 19.59. Home Prices for February fell for the first time Y/Y since 2012, according to housing brokerage firm Redfin, not helped by the 30-Year Mortgage Rate rising north of 7% yesterday, as bond yields continue to rise on expectations for a more aggressive Fed this year. Atlanta Fed President Bostic said that he favours a 25-basis-point rate hike at this month’s policy meeting. Bank of America analysts recently asserted that the Fed could hike rates to 6% this year given the strong labour market. Within the S&P 500 Index, nine of the 11 sectors finished higher. European Markets closed higher. Euro-Zone CPI growth for February eased slightly to 8.5%, dashing hopes for a steeper decline in prices, and thus pointing toward further rate hikes by the European Central Bank, while the Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate for January marginally rose to 6.7%, suggesting that the economic landscape could be weakening. ECB officials are turning more hawkish following a new peak in core inflation for the region. President Christine Lagarde said that there may need to be more rate hikes than the expected 50-basis-point move this month, while Council member Ignazio Visco said it must continue to raise interest rates to bring inflation growth back to the 2% target. In Asia, Japan’s Consumer Confidence inched higher in February, hitting the highest reading (31.3) since August 2022. Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said the nation’s economy is stabilising and has “enormous” room for further gains. Bank of Japan board member Hajime Takata said it must continue with easy-money policies until it sees signs of economic stability. Korea’s statistics office said semiconductor inventories rose 28% month over month and 39% year over year, implying prices may need to fall in order to deplete the excess supply. Elsewhere, Oil rose a further 0.36% while Gold fell 0.17% after a quiet session.
To mark my 2725th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 460 points yesterday and is now ahead by 960 points for March after finishing February with a gain of 3164 points, after closing January with a gain of 4687 points, while finishing December with a gain of 2054 points. November ended with a gain of 4789 points, while finishing October with a record gain of 9619 points, making 6660 points in September, after closing August with a gain of 2228 points, having made 2660 points in July, following a gain of 3371 points in June. The Service made 3651 points in May, after making 762 points in April, following a gain of 5883 points in March. The Platinum Service made an impressive 5324 points in February, after ending January with a gain of 3878 points, more than making up for December’s 932 points loss. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.76% higher at a price of 3981
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 341 points higher for a 1.05% gain at a price of 33,003.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.89% higher at a price of 12,044.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.51% higher.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific rose 0.66%.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 0.07% lower at a price of 27,498.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.5% higher.
The Euro closed 0.5% lower at $1.0597.
The British Pound closed 0.5% lower at 1.1942.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.4% closing at $136.70.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 3 basis points higher at 2.75%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 9 basis points higher at 3.92%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 7 basis points higher at 4.06%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.36% higher at $77.97 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.17% lower at $1835.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have the German Trade Balance at 7.00 am. This is followed by German, Euro-Zone and U.K. Services PMI at 8.55 am, 9.00 am and 9.30 am respectively. Next, we have Euro-Zone PPI at 10.00 am. This is followed by U.S Services PMI at 2.45 pm and ISM Services PMI at 3.00 pm. Finally, we have speeches from Fed Members Logan, Bostic, Bowman and Barkin at 4.00 pm, 4.45 pm, 8.00 pm and 9.45 pm respectively.
Cash S&P 500
I have mentioned many times over the past few weeks of having a target level of 3920 in the S&P. Yesterday the market hit a low of 3919 before eventually rallying 70 Handles into the close. The S&P closed at 3981, just below its 50 Day Moving Average of 3982. A break and close above 4000 this evening would be extremely positive heading into next week. Yesterday’s move higher saw the S&P first close over the 5EMA in many days following an upside key Day Reversal. The Bears are left frustrated again. With the 14-Day RSI on the $BPSPX closing at an oversold 22, there is plenty of room for the market to move higher. After the S&P hit my second buy level at 3920, I covered this position at 3939. The late move higher saw my 3960 S&P position exited at my 3971 T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a buyer from 3953/3968 with a 3939 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
EUR/USD
It was good that we exited our long Euro position on Wednesday at 1.0660, as the market fell yesterday enabling us to be long again at a price of 1.0620. With Equity Markets rallying into the close I would expect some weakness in the Dollar. I will add to this position at 1.0550 with the same 1.0495 ‘’Closing Stop’’. Meanwhile, I will leave my 1.0670 T/P level unchanged.
March Dollar Index
The 0.5% rally in the Dollar saw my 105.00 sell level triggered. I will add to this position at 105.60 while leaving my 106.10 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. I will now raise my T/P level to 104.50.
Cash DAX
My DAX plan worked really well yesterday as the market traded lower to my 15170-buy level before rallying to my 15250 T/P level and I am now flat. As I alluded in yesterday’s commentary you just cannot be short the DAX as the price action is decidedly bullish. This morning the DAX is trading higher at 15370 as I go to press. We have support from 15130/15210 where I will again be a buyer with a higher 15055 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Cash FTSE
Positive comments from Bank of England Member Pill that wage inflation is falling saw the FTSE lead the European Markets higher yesterday. I am still flat as my buy range was never threatened. I will now raise my buy level to 7850/7920 with a higher 7795 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the FTSE at this time.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow led yesterday’s move higher with a 1% gain. The 200 Day Moving Average was not threatened as the Dow managed to rally 400 points off its morning low. I will now raise my buy level to 32530/32780 with a wider 32295 ‘’Closing Stop’’. Ahead of the weekend I do not want to be short the market.
Cash NASDAQ 100
From a technical perspective the NDX is the most bullish of the American Indexes as the market again closed over both its 50 Day Moving Average (11755) and 200 Day MA (11901). This move higher came against a background that saw 10-Year Treasuries close at 4.06%, making yesterday’s gain even more impressive. The NDX hit my 11970 T/P level on my 11890 average long position and I am now flat. Today, I will be an aggressive buyer from 11810/11960 with the same 11695 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
March BUND
Higher inflation data saw the Bund hit my buy level at 131.40. From there the market traded in a narrow range and I am still flat. I will add to this position at 130.60 while leaving my 129.95 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. I will now lower my T/P level to 132.10. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with anew update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
No Change. I am still a buyer on any dip lower to 1805/1820 with the same 1791 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Silver Rolling Contract
Silver has traded in a 50 point range since Wednesday’s update. Please continue to follow the commentary below. In my opinion Silver is a buy on any dip given how fundamentally oversold this precious metal is. I do not normally have a trade with no stop. However, we have made plenty of points by being a buyer of dips over the last 18 months in Silver. For Silver to look better from a technical perspective it needs to break the key 24.00/25.00 resistance area which has held a number of times in 2023. Remember, Silver hit a high of over $51 in May 2011. History tells you that when buyers step in to buy Silver it can rally by over $5 in one day. This is the main reason that I am still long at an average rate of 23.10 as I want to be long for the inevitable move higher. We are up a number of points this year and I have now problem holding this position even though I am currently over 200 points offside. I will now have no T/P level on this position for now.
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