U.S. Equity Markets staged a strong rebound yesterday, led by the 3.48% gain in the NASDAQ, helping the VIX to close below 30 with a fall of 5%. U.S. gross domestic product (“GDP”) fell at a 1.4% annualised rate in the First Quarter, marking its first decline since the beginning of the pandemic. This signals that the output of goods and services in the U.S. was weaker than expected during the period. However, investors largely overlooked the report, as positive earnings and higher bond yields helped to offset concerns. Meanwhile, experts noted that some of the reasons why the GDP declined will likely dissipate later in the year, helping to boost sentiment that the U.S. may avoid a recession. Within the S&P 500, all of the 11 sectors finished higher. European Markets closed higher. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde indicated the bank could raise interest rates as soon as July but will not tighten policy as quickly as the Federal Reserve. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen warned companies not to pay for Russian energy supplies in Rubles, saying they would risk breaching sanctions. Italian Consumer Confidence figures for April were in line with expectations as individuals were increasingly optimistic about economic resurgence. French Energy and Environment Minister Barbara Pompili said the country will host a meeting of European Union (“EU”) energy ministers to discuss alternatives to Russian energy supplies. In Asia, China Petrochemical Corporation said oil-product demand is likely to ease by the end of the second quarter, boosting the demand outlook for the second half of the year. Smartphone maker Samsung Electronics reported First-Quarter operating profit that beat expectations, boosted by strength in phone and memory-chip demand. The Bank of Japan left interest rates unchanged, saying it will hold bond-purchase operations daily to keep a lid on rising yields. Japanese Retail Sales figures for March beat expectations, rebounding into expansion territory and suggesting economic activity is recovering. Elsewhere, Oil rose 3.27% on news the EU is looking into alternative energy sources as the bloc discusses a potential ban on Russian supply, while Gold jumped 0.52% after news U.S. First-Quarter GDP contracted.
To mark my 2525th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it lost 500 points yesterday and is now ahead by 972 points for April after closing March with a gain of 5883 points. The Platinum Service made an impressive 5324 points gain in February, after ending January with a gain of 3878 points, more than making up for December’s 932 points loss, having made 2466 points in November, 1028 points in October, 2866 points in September, 1543 points in August, and 996 points in July. The Platinum Service made 1366 points in June, 1439 points in May, 1244 points in April, after ending March with an impressive gain of 3769 points. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 2.47% higher at a price of 4287.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 614 points higher for a 1.85% gain at a price of 33,916.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 3.48% higher at a price of 13,456.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 1.2% higher.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.5%.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 1.75% higher at a price of 26,847.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.7% higher.
The Euro closed 0.6% lower at $1.0506.
The British Pound closed 0.6% lower at 1.2464.
The Japanese Yen fell 2%, closing at $130.85.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed nine basis points higher at 0.89%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed two basis points higher at 1.84%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed one basis points higher at 2.84%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 3.27% higher at $105.26 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.52% higher at $1893.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have German Import Prices and U.K. Retail Sales at 7.00 am. This is followed by Euro-Zone Money Supply at 9.00 am and GDP at 10.00 am. Next, we have Personal Income/Spending at 1.30 pm and the Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index at 2.45 pm. Finally, at 3.00 pm we have the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment.
Cash S&P 500
Another wild trading session as the buy the dip saw the S&P rip higher before having a small sell-off ahead of results from Amazon which disappointed. However, despite both Intel and Amazon getting hit hard in the overnight, U.S. Indexes are rallying as I go to press. The negative -1.4% GDP print, driven by inventories and exports is a major warning to the Fed and is one of the reasons why I do not believe the Fed will raise interest rates as much as expected despite inflation at 40-year highs. The missed earnings from Amazon shows an economy that is clearly slowing down. This rip higher in the S&P saw my 4280 exit level on my 4330 long S&P triggered. Subsequently, ahead of the close I bought the S&P again at a price of 4283. I will add to this trade at 4243 with no stop for now. I will have a T/P level on this position at 4321. Ahead of the long weekend in Europe I do not want to be short the Equity Markets.
EUR/USD
No Change. I am still long at 1.0540 with the same 1.0455 stop. I will now lower my T/P level on this position to 1.0590.
March Dollar Index
The 2% fall in the Japanese Yen, hitting a 20-year low saw the Dollar trade the whole of my sell range for a now 103.55 average short position. I will leave my stop unchanged at 104.25 while raising my T/P level to 103.05.
Cash DAX
No Change. I will stay flat over the long weekend. I still do not want to be a seller at these low levels.
Cash FTSE
Frustratingly, the FTSE missed my initial 7420 buy level by ten points before rallying to a rebound high of 7570 and I am still flat. I will now raise my buy level to 7400/7460 with a tight 7345 stop.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow had a nice 700 point rally as expected but unfortunately I have not been able to get a long position on board and I am still flat. The Dow did close over 33650 which is short-term bullish. I will now raise my buy level to 33430/33630 with a tight 33295 stop. Given how oversold the market is trading I no longer want to be short at this time.
Cash NASDAQ 100
Yesterday was frustrating on a number of levels. The NDX missed my 13000 next buy level by 33 points before rallying to an evening high at 13540. Subsequently we fell over 200 points on earnings and are trading at 13300 as I go to press. Today, I will raise my buy level to 12900/13120 with a 12795 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 13340. I continue to nurse this month’s 14327 long position which I will now carry forward into May.
June BUND
The Bund got hit hard yesterday, hitting my 154.20 buy level. I am still long with a 154.70 T/P level. I will add to this position at 153.60 while leaving my 152.95 stop unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
Frustratingly, Gold hit a low at 1871, missing my 1870 buy level before rallying to sit at 1895 as I go to press. I will now raise my buy level to 1860/1875 with a 1849 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change. I am still long from Wednesday at 23.20 with the same 22.45 stop and T/P level at 23.79.
Recent Comments